Texas Spring 2017
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- srainhoutx
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Re: Texas Spring 2017
A couple of features I am watching over the next week or so is a robust CCKW and an interesting MJO Pulse that may assist our rain chances with the potential of an active and unsettled weather pattern across Texas as we near the end of April into early May.
Last edited by srainhoutx on Mon Apr 17, 2017 4:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- South Texas Storms
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Re: Texas Spring 2017
srainhoutx wrote:A couple of features I am watching over the next week or so is a robust CCKW and an interesting MJO Pulse that may assist our rain chances with the potential of an active and unsettle weather pattern across Texas as we near the end of April into early May.
I agree. Late April to early May looks like it could be an active weather period across Texas. The tanking SOI over the past few days helps to increase confidence a bit as well.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017
South Texas Storms wrote:weatherdude1108 wrote:JDawg512 wrote:Happy Easter.
I'm not as enthusiastic about rain chances through the end of the month. Sure some will get rain but others may not see much. It will be highly dependent on location since nothing jumps out as a wide spread coverage type scenario and in that context it's a sure bet some areas will get shafted.
Was just looking over some of the short range models. As far as Austin is concerned only a couple show rain hitting us. Most have it missing to the south. I'm gonna have to make some adjustments on my rain machine...
Yeah, what the ---- happened to our 60% rain chances today?? I saw it went down to 40% per NWS, and even 20% KXAN was saying for Saturday, which was 50%.Evaporating before our eyes.
![]()
I am already thinking I am going to turn on my sprinkler system Saturday, which is my watering day, all dependent on how much (if any) rain we get this week. That MCV to our south is sucking away the energy from us.
We need to put some gas in that rain machine of yours!![]()
Just....UGH.
Now hold on weatherdude...don't go jumping off a cliff just yet.![]()
I think we'll start to see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop later this morning and into the afternoon as daytime heating interacts with the MCV near our area. We weren't supposed to get rain last night anyway...the best chances were always with daytime heating today. Patience grasshopper
Okay okay. Yeah, you're right. I jumped on the bandwagon.


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Re: Texas Spring 2017
Radar is lighting up. Maybe we'll get lucky. 

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Re: Texas Spring 2017
Nice downpour south of the airport currently. Some thunder and lightning also.
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- South Texas Storms
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Re: Texas Spring 2017
weatherdude1108 wrote:Radar is lighting up. Maybe we'll get lucky.
Here it comes! We just needed a little daytime heating to get the storms going today

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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Spring 2017
Brent wrote:Very surprised at the widespread rain today
I had basically given up after yesterday but the outflow boundary sure did deliver today!
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Spring 2017
Weimar has had 1.5" of rain since 1PM and just started another moderate rain.
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- Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Spring 2017
We had 2.15 inches here in Denison/Sherman today.
Some areas nearby had over 3.0 inches.
Some areas nearby had over 3.0 inches.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017
DFW airport today has picked up a little less than half an inch of rain. The heaviest rain occurred just slightly east/southeast of the airport in western/central Dallas county where 2-4" fell. Most of the heaviest qpf today was in this area and even more so along the Red River counties.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017
My yard would have gotten more water if a magical fairy took a piss on it than what I ended up getting from the clouds. This rain miser is losing his patience real quick. GIVE ME RAIN!!!!! It doesn't count if it doesn't land in my rain gauge....
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I am a weather hobbyist living 3.5 miles south of Downtown Austin and in no way or fashion should anything I say concerning forecasts be taken seriously. Please check your local NWS for accurate weather forecasting and conditions.
I am a weather hobbyist living 3.5 miles south of Downtown Austin and in no way or fashion should anything I say concerning forecasts be taken seriously. Please check your local NWS for accurate weather forecasting and conditions.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017
JDawg512 wrote:My yard would have gotten more water if a magical fairy took a piss on it than what I ended up getting from the clouds. This rain miser is losing his patience real quick. GIVE ME RAIN!!!!! It doesn't count if it doesn't land in my rain gauge....
I got sprinkles today. Was hoping that complex that came down from Dallas would help. All it did was create a gust front. Cooled it to 67. ZERO rain in the gauge at my house. I didn't get lucky.
Might as well be talking about freezing drizzle on the Winter thread.

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- 1900hurricane
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Re: Texas Spring 2017
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Re: Texas Spring 2017
weatherdude1108 wrote:JDawg512 wrote:My yard would have gotten more water if a magical fairy took a piss on it than what I ended up getting from the clouds. This rain miser is losing his patience real quick. GIVE ME RAIN!!!!! It doesn't count if it doesn't land in my rain gauge....
I got sprinkles today. Was hoping that complex that came down from Dallas would help. All it did was create a gust front. Cooled it to 67. ZERO rain in the gauge at my house. I didn't get lucky.
Might as well be talking about freezing drizzle on the Winter thread.
As soon as I felt that downdraft I knew it was over. The cool air stabilized the local atmosphere. I never like to feel a downdraft for the very reason that it means getting shafted for rain.
Please give me good news because I'm about to put my rain machine in high gear.


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Re: Texas Spring 2017
Rainfall amounts approaching 10" in central Brazoria county since midnight around Danbury.
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- Tireman4
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Re: Texas Spring 2017
000
FXUS64 KHGX 180926
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
426 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017
.DISCUSSION...
Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the southern half of SE TX
for this morning through this afternoon.
MCVs over SE TX this morning are producing quite a bit of rain...
with the highest amounts across Brazoria/North Galveston counties
thus far. Radar estimating up to to 9 inches (since midnight) for
locations near Danbury (in Brazoria county). Short-range guidance
keeping this unsettled weather pattern over the CWFA through most
of the rest of the day. Other incoming perturbations (per WV sat-
ellite loops), daytime heating and the proximity of the upper low
itself all lending itself to keeping high POPS across SE TX today.
Jet dynamics aloft also hinting at the continuation of this back-
building pattern of storms.
Despite the weakening upper low over the area, we could see scat-
tered activity on Weds. Lingering boundaries, the seabreeze along
with daytime heating will all be contributing factors. As the up-
per ridge begins to build in from the west, we should see quieter
weather by Thurs/Fri. Looking further ahead, models are remaining
in decent agreement with the cold front on Sat. The upper low de-
epning over the Central Plains will help to drag this boundary a-
cross the state as it moves off to the northeast. Will be looking
for widely scattered/scattered activity with FROPA at this time.
Cooler/drier weather on tap for the rest of the weekend into the
start of next week. 41
&&
.AVIATION...
Messy conditions across the area terminals mainly VFR but patchy IFR
CIGS/VISBY due to proximity of TSRA/+TSRA. Series of slow
moving/meandering upper disturbances should combine with rich Gulf
moisture to keep scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
going across the region and at least in the vicinity of the TAF
sites. Areas from ARM-SGR-HOU-GLS probably the most under the gun
through 21z as vorts put the squeeze on the atmosphere. Tonight
should see a diminishing trend in storms with the loss of heating
but vorts remain close by or overhead. So VCSH at a minimum will
probably remain in the area terminals.
45
&&
.MARINE...
South to southeast flow of 10 to 15 knots today should be the norm
outside of the storms today and tonight. The southerly flow
continues through Friday before a Pacific cold front arrives
Saturday. Winds in the wake of the front will likely reach SCEC
conditions and may even reach SCA for 6-12 hours.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 65 82 68 84 / 70 20 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 77 66 81 68 84 / 70 40 30 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 77 70 78 72 79 / 70 30 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 180926
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
426 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017
.DISCUSSION...
Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the southern half of SE TX
for this morning through this afternoon.
MCVs over SE TX this morning are producing quite a bit of rain...
with the highest amounts across Brazoria/North Galveston counties
thus far. Radar estimating up to to 9 inches (since midnight) for
locations near Danbury (in Brazoria county). Short-range guidance
keeping this unsettled weather pattern over the CWFA through most
of the rest of the day. Other incoming perturbations (per WV sat-
ellite loops), daytime heating and the proximity of the upper low
itself all lending itself to keeping high POPS across SE TX today.
Jet dynamics aloft also hinting at the continuation of this back-
building pattern of storms.
Despite the weakening upper low over the area, we could see scat-
tered activity on Weds. Lingering boundaries, the seabreeze along
with daytime heating will all be contributing factors. As the up-
per ridge begins to build in from the west, we should see quieter
weather by Thurs/Fri. Looking further ahead, models are remaining
in decent agreement with the cold front on Sat. The upper low de-
epning over the Central Plains will help to drag this boundary a-
cross the state as it moves off to the northeast. Will be looking
for widely scattered/scattered activity with FROPA at this time.
Cooler/drier weather on tap for the rest of the weekend into the
start of next week. 41
&&
.AVIATION...
Messy conditions across the area terminals mainly VFR but patchy IFR
CIGS/VISBY due to proximity of TSRA/+TSRA. Series of slow
moving/meandering upper disturbances should combine with rich Gulf
moisture to keep scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
going across the region and at least in the vicinity of the TAF
sites. Areas from ARM-SGR-HOU-GLS probably the most under the gun
through 21z as vorts put the squeeze on the atmosphere. Tonight
should see a diminishing trend in storms with the loss of heating
but vorts remain close by or overhead. So VCSH at a minimum will
probably remain in the area terminals.
45
&&
.MARINE...
South to southeast flow of 10 to 15 knots today should be the norm
outside of the storms today and tonight. The southerly flow
continues through Friday before a Pacific cold front arrives
Saturday. Winds in the wake of the front will likely reach SCEC
conditions and may even reach SCA for 6-12 hours.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 65 82 68 84 / 70 20 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 77 66 81 68 84 / 70 40 30 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 77 70 78 72 79 / 70 30 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Re: Texas Spring 2017
JDawg512 wrote:weatherdude1108 wrote:JDawg512 wrote:My yard would have gotten more water if a magical fairy took a piss on it than what I ended up getting from the clouds. This rain miser is losing his patience real quick. GIVE ME RAIN!!!!! It doesn't count if it doesn't land in my rain gauge....
I got sprinkles today. Was hoping that complex that came down from Dallas would help. All it did was create a gust front. Cooled it to 67. ZERO rain in the gauge at my house. I didn't get lucky.
Might as well be talking about freezing drizzle on the Winter thread.
As soon as I felt that downdraft I knew it was over. The cool air stabilized the local atmosphere. I never like to feel a downdraft for the very reason that it means getting shafted for rain.
Please give me good news because I'm about to put my rain machine in high gear.![]()
You and I think exactly alike! Anytime I feel a downdraft before we get rain, I KNOW it's over. When we were teenagers, my older brother and I would always talk about that when we'd watch a storm headed our way. It would look dark and ominous, then as it got closer, the wind picked up and it cooled off. Then, the storm dissipated, and a lot of times, reformed downstream.
I cannot count how many times that has happened. That gut feeling as soon as the downdraft hits, right before it is supposed to rain. I guess the best place to be for the rain is right after the storms form, or far enough downstream that the outflow creates another storm in your area. It seems like I am always in the part where the gust front stabilizes the air, and it fizzles, and we get nothing.
We'll get our turn someday. I'm not banking on Saturday morning though. Ugh.



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Re: Texas Spring 2017

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Re: Texas Spring 2017
Yesterday, Weimar got 6.5" and Dubina got 8.75". Bordon got 1.75" which is six miles east of Weimar.
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