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mrbagyo wrote:still there in ECMWZ 00z run
A few tweaks were made to the forecast, but basically was left as is.
Refreshed winds and dew point data with new GFS model data. Also
trimmed some of the mostly cloudy skies from the forecast.
A small area of clouds and showers just to the east of the Marianas
could be seen on satellite this morning. This area appears to be the
result of weak trade-wind convergence combined with favorable upper-level
winds. There is an upper-level trough at 200 mb that is probably
assisting in generating the showers. GFS20 does show this area and
weakens it through the morning. While some of the clouds may make
it to the islands, partly cloudy skies should prevail through the day.
Little in the way of large scale organized weather features is expected
through the bulk of the forecast as a dry season pattern will
continue.
Towards the end of the forecast, that is next Tuesday, GFS model is
predicting a circulation passing across the Marianas. NAVGEM shows a
similar feature, but has it passing over the local area Sunday.
ECMWF does show a circulation passing far to the south of the Marianas
Saturday and Sunday. CMC model also shows a circulation passing
far to the south of Guam on Saturday. At this time not certain anything
will happen but kept skies mostly cloudy Saturday night through next
Tuesday as moisture may increase enough to bring in more clouds. Did
move the onset of the mostly cloudy skies from Thursday to Saturday
night as the dry air will persist a little longer.
Dynamical model guidance does track a pair of twin disturbances on either side of the equator late in Week-1, that bear monitoring for tropical cyclogenesis. This appears tied to the potential emergence of a Kelvin wave near 120E by the middle of Week-1, with twin circulations possible off the equator in its wake. The first targeted area stretches from the Philippines eastward to near 145 E between 5-15N with support from both the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance.
Both areas are given moderate confidence of development, with slightly higher odds presently favored for the disturbance in the West Pacific.
The best signal appears to be that of an emerging Kelvin wave in the vicinity of the Maritime Continent by the middle of Week-1 that is indicated by dynamical model guidance, with these features typically underestimated by the models. Twin Rossby waves are possible in the wake of this feature, giving rise to the aforementioned tropical cyclogenesis threats, and above-average rainfall for the eastern Maritime Continent and West Pacific.
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