Texas Spring 2017

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Any kind of ULL near the Gulf can spell lots of rain for us. That is playing out again. I see more storms popping up along 59 near El Campo, and along the gulf coast. Warm gulf possibly adding to this as well. Today could get more ugly for SE Tx and Houston area.


Im not sure of why or what boundary these storms are popping up on but they are tropical in nature and carrying very heavy rain. Just over an inch at my place here, so we can take alot more. Unfortunately, there are areas around here that are flooding already or could be if we get storms trainig over the same area.

[srainhoutx]

Worrisome to see back building of storms near Matagorda Bay and the Victoria Crossroads Area. It appears via surface analysis the Mesoscale Convective Vortex is situated near Matagorda Bay and meandering, at best toward the East, in a very weak steering flow. Cloud tops continue to cool near Victoria and along the Coastal tier of Counties suggesting additional rounds of heavy rainfall rates nearing 2+ inches per hour may be possible.

[ronyan]

I've had 2.6" on my station, 10" looks like the highest amount in Brazoria county near Danbury.

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 181736
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1236 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

.AVIATION...
Still looking for periods of SHRA/TSRA at TAF sites this afternoon and
on through at least tomorrow morning as the storm system continues
to meander across the area. Mostly MVFR ceilings are anticipated outside
the activity with possible IFR ceilings/visibilities in/around the
storms. This is a messy and low confidence forecast as models continue
to give different model solutions. Many amendments will likely be needed.
42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017/

UPDATE...
Areas of light to moderate rain continue to move across the
southern half of Southeast Texas this morning, with more intense
convective activity associated with a mesoscale convective vortex
(MCV) located along the Upper Texas Coast. This MCV appears to be
located around Matagorda Bay, where associated surface troughs/
outflow boundaries have served as focusing mechanisms for
thunderstorms over the coastal waters. Subsidence behind the
offshore activity has done a fairly good job of limiting the
intensity of inland showers and thunderstorms so far, but
beginning to see additional development where visible satellite
has shown breaks or clearing in cloud cover. Through early
afternoon, think most areas will see a break in overall rainfall
intensity. However, morning soundings from Corpus Christi and Lake
Charles as well as CIRA layer precipitable water estimates all
show at least 1.4-1.5 inch precipitable water values across the
region.

After a brief break, mid-afternoon heating may contribute enough
to destabilization for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to
again produce rain rates close to 2 inches an hour (given the
PWATs in place now). With weak shear/flow aloft, storm motions
will continue to be very slow and this will allow rain totals to
pile up should more robust convection develop... but the weak flow
will help limit overall ascent so that is some good news in terms
of thunderstorm development. Due to the 8-10 inches of rain parts
of Brazoria and Galveston Counties received overnight as well as
a favorable environment persisting for heavy rain, have made no
changes to the ongoing flash flood watch.

What is interesting to note is that some guidance (RAP/ HRRR/
TTU- WRF/ ARW/ NMM) show the development of another inflow band
associated with the MCV close to the Interstate 45 corridor later
this afternoon (essentially Houston to Galveston). This guidance
indicates another 1-3 inches of rainfall would be possible within
the line if it sets up... and that`s the big question right now as
the movement of the MCV may be affected by how much a small
vorticity maxima also located near Matagorda Bay pivots northeast
as well as how much stabilization/suppression the ongoing activity
over the coastal waters will provide. Again higher totals than
this are certainly possible if the line sets up.

Essentially, a brief break in rainfall intensity is expected
through early afternoon, but considerable uncertainty still exists
over the next 6-12 hours in how the MCV/heavy rainfall threat
will evolve.

Huffman

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow: The issue has been there hasn't been a really strong upper disturbance. Much of this is daytime driven and boundaries or weak fronts. At night we have smaller scale MCV features and actually this whole thing is very summer-like rainy pattern. Perhaps late week a stronger storm will evoke more widespread rain. Not holding my breath though, bring 2015 back! (but not the deadly flooding)

Yep that's correct. This is a typical wet summertime pattern with a weakness over the state.

The long range models are still indicating a wet pattern across Texas late this month into May.

[Cpv17]

Does anyone think we'll see a redevelopment of storms tonight?

[South Texas Storms]

Does anyone think we'll see a redevelopment of storms tonight?

We certainly could. HGX just put out a very nice and detailed AFD.

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201704182056-KHGX-FXUS64-AFDHGX

[JDawg512]

Looking ahead for the next system that isn't a micro dump. It's never a good thing to hear about locations recieving 8+ inches of rain. It goes to show how small an area that's being effected with locations a few miles away seeing just a fraction of that amount.

I'm gonna go ahead and start my watering schedule this week. The topsoil is beginning to dry out.

[bubba hotep]

It looks like the Friday system is going to mix things up a bit and actually drive front through the DFW area for a pleasant weekend. Still some kinks to workout as far as any svr wx but it looks like storms should blast past the area pretty quickly. Then the end of next week into the weekend looks interesting but the models keep doing this. Showing an interesting longer range amped up look only to trend more zonal. One thing of note on the Euro is that little front running kicker system, that shows up in one of the main composite clusters of tornado outbreak 500mb patterns.

[Ntxw]

40s this weekend will feel cold! Given how mild and humid it's been.

[bubba hotep]

A couple of features I am watching over the next week or so is a robust CCKW and an interesting MJO Pulse that may assist our rain chances with the potential of an active and unsettled weather pattern across Texas as we near the end of April into early May.

That CCKW is showing up nicely in the plots but the MJO still seems to be giving the models issues, esp. the GEFS.

[bubba hotep]

40s this weekend will feel cold! Given how mild and humid it's been.

40s in the last 1/3 of April... Boo! Where was that cold shot in Feb?

[Brent]

40s this weekend will feel cold! Given how mild and humid it's been.

Yeah ikr... I just wish we could keep the fronts going all summer. I have to admit I kept thinking it'd trend warmer like other cold snaps a week out but no apparently not.

But seriously, where was this in the winter?

[JDawg512]

No appreciable rain chances for the next 7 days across the Austin metro area

Today is my designated watering day.

I guess if there's something to look forward to it's the cooler temps but before then the Heat Miser will be turning up the thermostat.

[weatherdude1108]

No appreciable rain chances for the next 7 days across the Austin metro area

Today is my designated watering day.

I guess if there's something to look forward to it's the cooler temps but before then the Heat Miser will be turning up the thermostat.

I'll be setting my water to turn on for Saturday morning.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I am loving the ability to click and see the GFS sounding on tropical tidbits. I know other sites had this ability as well, but im always on TT. Loving it!

[Ntxw]

There's going to be flooding rains and excessive rains associated with the SOI burst in the coming days. Only problem is...it will happen in Oklahoma.

Flood watches up there for 3-5+ inches of rain



We will likely see some kind of line pass through with the front though, fingers crossed it over-performs.

[bubba hotep]

There's going to be flooding rains and excessive rains associated with the SOI burst in the coming days. Only problem is...it will happen in Oklahoma.

Flood watches up there for 3-5+ inches of rain



We will likely see some kind of line pass through with the front though, fingers crossed it over-performs.

The 3k NAM doesn't look too bad tonight. Storms get undercut by the front but it lingers some elevated storms behind the front w/ most of DFW getting b/w 0.5 - 1". It could certainly be worse.

Also, the Euro is slowly coming around to more ENSO positive like conditions

[Ntxw]

For April DFW is now 70.1F average for the month or 6F above normal. This weekend should bump that down a bit but not nearly enough to prevent this month from the very warm streak for 11 months. Also if we finish above 70F for the month the disturbing connection is 2006, 2011, and 2012 were the three years of the past decade + to have April finish above 70F. All three are notoriously hot summers. hopefully the delayed (or maybe warm neutral through the end) Nino could curb that. Forecasts for it have been much slowed.

[bubba hotep]

Then the end of next week into the weekend looks interesting but the models keep doing this. Showing an interesting longer range amped up look only to trend more zonal. One thing of note on the Euro is that little front running kicker system, that shows up in one of the main composite clusters of tornado outbreak 500mb patterns.

The WSI experimental svr wx is all in on this next system:



Now to see if the recent trend continues of the models shifting to more of a zonal look as systems move up in time.