ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

Might see our first 0.5C+ reading this week.

[weathaguyry]

Hmmm, the SOI rose to -17 yesterday and now it's -10, by my understanding I thought it was supposed to be pretty far negative all the way into May

[tolakram]

I'm still waiting until the end of this month to get a better idea of what will happen. The spring barrier seems to strike again, but I don't think we really have a good idea of what will happen yet.

[Kingarabian]

Hmmm, the SOI rose to -17 yesterday and now it's -10, by my understanding I thought it was supposed to be pretty far negative all the way into May

Don't focus too much on daily oscillations. That's not how the ENSO variables work. The daily SOI values may even become positive briefly since the GFS and the Euro have been developing a low pressure area that will swoop down and get close to Darwin for 36-48 hours next week thus lowering pressures there. However just because you have a few days of positive values, it does not change the bigger picture (you'll see this reflected nicely in the 30 and 90 day averages). The Euro and the GFS show higher than normal over Australia and lower than normal pressures in the SW Pacific near Tahiti(if you look at the weeklies). That's a classical negative SOI setup.

[Ntxw]

Still no form yet below the surface for a Nino. Maybe a WWB in May could push the thermocline, but time is running out if that does not happen in May in time for late summer or fall.



Just a quick flashback, in 2015 this coming week the reading at Nino 3.4 was approaching+1C

[Hurricaneman]

That subsurface pretty much says this could start out as a madoki El Niño and transition towards a traditional one in the fall or winter so we have to watch for further WWBs and the subsurface

[Kingarabian]

Still no form yet below the surface for a Nino. Maybe a WWB in May could push the thermocline, but time is running out if that does not happen in May in time for late summer or fall.

[imghttp://i67.tinypic.com/2j2ge1v.png[/img]

Just a quick flashback, in 2015 this coming week the reading at Nino 3.4 was approaching+1C

Soon to be no true WWB for 3 months straight and trades being prevalent up to April, coupled with a disappearing weak small warm pool at the subsurface yet values in the Nino region have consistently been warm-neutral. What gives?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

climate change?,

[Ntxw]

Still no form yet below the surface for a Nino. Maybe a WWB in May could push the thermocline, but time is running out if that does not happen in May in time for late summer or fall.

[imghttp://i67.tinypic.com/2j2ge1v.png[/img]

Just a quick flashback, in 2015 this coming week the reading at Nino 3.4 was approaching+1C

Soon to be no true WWB for 3 months straight and trades being prevalent up to April, coupled with a disappearing weak small warm pool at the subsurface yet values in the Nino region have consistently been warm-neutral. What gives?

shallow surface warmth in the east. Warm neutral is still not 0.5C or greater. For as much fanfare as there has been, there still has not been a 0.5C or greater reading and we're heading into the last week of April. Could it be a late bloomer? Of course! But truth is there is just no warm pool to feel good about it!

I mentioned much earlier before you need both the atmosphere and ocean to make it happen. Only half of that equation it just slows, delays, or denies an event from happening one step forward, two steps back type thing.

[Hurricaneman]

Something similar to 2012 could happen as we had an aborted El Niño

[cycloneye]

The Mid April plume shows for ASO touching the +1.0C threshold. (Yellow consensus line)

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/855140403674271744

[Hurricaneman]

Without the kelvin waves the El Niño most likely if it come would only be weak

[Kazmit]

Something similar to 2012 could happen as we had an aborted El Niño

That would be interesting. This season is being very hard to predict so far, most likely because of the spring barrier. We may find, as you said, that El Niño never shows up and we get more activity than previously foreseen.

[weathaguyry]

Something similar to 2012 could happen as we had an aborted El Niño

That would be interesting. This season is being very hard to predict so far, most likely because of the spring barrier. We may find, as you said, that El Niño never shows up and we get more activity than previously foreseen.

For a while now that has been my thinking, my numbers are 16/8/4, which may or may not be bullish. Around January I always thought El-Nino would be a long shot for the season, with something very weak around the OND timeframe possible.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/855732993708748800

[Hurricaneman]

Based on new forecasts the El Niño is not set in stone and may not happen

[Kazmit]

Based on new forecasts the El Niño is not set in stone and may not happen

I might have to raise my numbers slightly before June 1st.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ive been silent till now since i really had no idea what would happen, but im starting to buy into the modiki scenario.

Question, the very warm water near and around hawaii, where would this be expected to travel to by fall/winter? This could have an effect on things. A prolonged Upper level high there really ramps up the Lows and bring heavy amounts of precip to california.

[Hunabku]

The El Niño modoki pattern began asserting itself around 1990 as a relatively persistent warming trend in the central Pacific. The warming around hawaii may be related to that and the positive PDO. Interesting how 2014-15 was considered a modoki event, so perhaps it's more likely that it'll return. Also let's keep in mind that we're not through the Spring predictability barrier and extended periods of weak trades along with WWBs can change everything.