ATL: ARLENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

Best track says "Arlene" now.

[Hurricaneman]

Best track says "Arlene" now.

And it looks like they're going with 40kts wind

[Hammy]

Best track says "Arlene" now.

And it looks like they're going with 40kts wind

Floater does as well.

[RL3AO]

There are probably some baroclinic processes taking place (the west to east band of clouds are a sign), but this is clearly a tropical cyclone. JB's rants are both wrong and a little over the top.

[tolakram]

live visible

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=42&lon=-45&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray

ir

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=42&lon=-45&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray

[1900hurricane]

There are probably some barotropic processes taking place (the west to east band of clouds are a sign), but this is clearly a tropical cyclone. JB's rants are both wrong and a little over the top.

I think you meant "baroclinic" here.

[RL3AO]

There are probably some barotropic processes taking place (the west to east band of clouds are a sign), but this is clearly a tropical cyclone. JB's rants are both wrong and a little over the top.

I think you meant "baroclinic" here.

DOH. Sooner or later I'll learn how to proofread.

[Patrick99]

There are probably some barotropic processes taking place (the west to east band of clouds are a sign), but this is clearly a tropical cyclone. JB's rants are both wrong and a little over the top.

I think you meant "baroclinic" here.

DOH. Sooner or later I'll learn how to proofread.

Yeah, I'm not even going to use any scientific terminology, because I'm not sure I need to. That flat-out looks like a tropical storm, and with better overall appearance than many that have been named.

[Kazmit]

This is incredible! Just got home from school to find one of the only April tropical storms on record! This morning I thought it was long-gone but I guess not. I hope it doesn't weaken back to a TD before the 6pm advisory...

[TheStormExpert]

JB is about to nuts if he hasn't already with the latest news. Anyways, wouldn't be surprised if Arlene makes a run at hurricane status she has THAT LOOK.

[TheStormExpert]

Stunned that we're already looking at Tropical Storm Arlene. What's this, the 3rd season in a row we've seen a pre-season tropical storm and the 2nd we've seen it before May?

Pretty much! This is starting to become the new normal.

[Hurricaneman]

JB is about to nuts if he hasn't already with the latest news. Anyways, wouldn't be surprised if Arlene makes a run at hurricane status she has THAT LOOK.

That's probably a little too bullish, probably no more than 50mph at best

[tropicwatch]

When will the NHC pull the trigger on this one or will they decline to name it?

[Florida1118]

When will the NHC pull the trigger on this one or will they decline to name it?

In about 30 minutes. I can't see any reason why they would suddenly change their mind from the best track.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

When will the NHC pull the trigger on this one or will they decline to name it?

5pm EDT

[TheStormExpert]

JB is about to nuts if he hasn't already with the latest news. Anyways, wouldn't be surprised if Arlene makes a run at hurricane status she has THAT LOOK.

That's probably a little too bullish, probably no more than 50mph at best

After a second look I realized I was probably too bullish.

[tropicwatch]

When will the NHC pull the trigger on this one or will they decline to name it?

5pm EDT

Subtropical or Tropical??
Never mind I see that it is already tropical.

[TheStormExpert]

When will the NHC pull the trigger on this one or will they decline to name it?

5pm EDT

Subtropical or Tropical??

Tropical

[cycloneye]

Is official.We have ARLENE.Look how AVILA puts this.

Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012017
500 PM AST Thu Apr 20 2017

I have to add one more surprise to my long hurricane forecasting
career. Unexpectedly, the subtropical cyclone became a tropical
depression this morning, and then it intensified to a tropical
storm. This intensity estimate is based on the cloud pattern
presentation on satellite imagery which shows moderate thunderstorm
activity surrounding an eye-type feature, and a convective ring in
microwave imagery. Initial intensity is set at 40 kt, although
estimates from TAFB suggest that the winds could have reached 45 kt
around 1800 UTC. Since that time, the cloud pattern has deteriorated
somewhat and winds probably have diminished. Despite the
intensification, Arlene is still forecast by all global models to
become absorbed by a nearby developing extratropical cyclone on
Friday.

Arlene is moving toward the west-northwest at 22 kt, while well
embedded in the fast flow surrounding the extratropical low. This
general motion around the low is expected until dissipation on
Friday.

Tropical storms in April are rare and Arlene is only the second
one observed in this month during the satellite era. It should be
noted, however, that this type of storm was practically impossible
to detect prior to the weather satellite era.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 37.7N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 38.7N 45.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Kazmit]

ARLENE IS BORN.
And so the season begins. The discussion is an interesting one.