WPAC: MUIFA - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 240302

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (NE OF YAP)

B. 24/0230Z

C. 11.60N

D. 139.67E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .25 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. PT
AND MET ARE CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTINEZ

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[euro6208]

Hate to say it but this looks to be a TS already. Very well defined outflow with solid convection in the circulation center.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Models still doesn't have a bright future for this although this is already outgunning them.

[euro6208]

TXPQ28 KNES 240917
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)

B. 24/0830Z

C. 12.4N

D. 137.7E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...POSITION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. LOW CLOUD FEATURES WHICH
ARE EXPOSED WEST OF CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS DISPLACED WEST OF MID LEVEL CENTER. IN SPITE OF THIS
93W DOES NOT EXHIBIT OTHER SIGNS OF SHEAR IN SATELLITE PRESENTATION
SO HAVE USED BANDING PATTERN AND OBTAINED 3 TENTHS ON LOG SPIRAL FOR
DT=2.0. MET=2.0 BASED ON 24 HOUR DEVELOPING TREND. PT=2.0. FT IS BASED
ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

24/0531Z 12.3N 138.1E SSMI
24/0618Z 12.4N 137.8E SSMIS


...RUMINSKI


TPPN10 PGTW 240902

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (N OF YAP)

B. 24/0850Z

C. 12.37N

D. 138.51E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LOWE

[cycloneye]

JTWC upgrades to TD 03W and is forecast to become the first named storm of 2017 but will be a fish storm.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 201 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PULSATING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE
AND IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE IN A 241632Z AMSR2 89 GHZ
IMAGE SHOWING CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.0 TO T2.0 (25 TO 30 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, WARM SSTS NEAR 29 CELSIUS, AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW FEEDING
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET STREAM TO THE NORTH. CURRENTLY TD 03W IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID-TO-LOW LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE RIDGE
AXIS SOMETIME NEAR TAU 48, CHANGING ITS TRAJECTORY TO A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS, MOST NOTABLY BY THE ENHANCED OUTFLOW
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET. BEYOND TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK DRIVING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET. WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO SHARPLY INCREASE RESULTING IN RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM. TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
IN THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THE TRACK TURN TO THE NORTHEAST.
OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ28 KNES 242053
TCSWNP

A. 03W (NONAME)

B. 24/2030Z

C. 12.4N

D. 136.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...DT=2.5 BASED ON .5 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=2.5. MET=2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

24/1743Z 12.1N 136.5E AMSU
24/1855Z 12.2N 136.4E SSMIS


...SCHWARTZ

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 APR 2017 Time : 201000 UTC
Lat : 12:28:35 N Lon : 136:11:20 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.6 /1009.0mb/ 26.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.6 1.7 3.4

Center Temp : -60.6C Cloud Region Temp : -64.2C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 15.7 degrees

****************************************************

[cycloneye]

TD
Issued at 01:10 UTC, 25 April 2017

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 25 April>
Scale
-
Intensity
-

TD
Center position
N12°20' (12.3°)

E136°55' (136.9°)
Direction and speed of movement
W Slow
Central pressure
1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 26 April>
Intensity
-
Center position of probability circle
N13°20' (13.3°)

E134°00' (134.0°)
Direction and speed of movement
WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure
1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle
200 km (110 NM)

[1900hurricane]

The center is right near the NW edge of the main convective cluster.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 228 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH WEAK FRAGMENTED BANDING. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON BOTH
SATELLITE FIXES AND A PARTIAL 242357Z 89 GHZ AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWING
DEEP CONVECTION EMANATING FROM THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 30 KNOTS IS
BASED ON BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 (30 TO 35 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WARM SSTS NEAR 29 CELSIUS, AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW FEEDING INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE JET STREAM TO THE NORTH. CURRENTLY TD 03W IS TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID-TO-LOW LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE RIDGE
AXIS SOMETIME NEAR TAU 36, CHANGING ITS TRAJECTORY TO A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS, MOST NOTABLY BY THE ENHANCED OUTFLOW
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET. BEYOND TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK DRIVING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET. WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO SHARPLY INCREASE RESULTING IN RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM. TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING INCREASED SPREAD IN TRACK POSSIBILITIES
FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS. GFDN AND COAMPS-TC ARE NOW THE OUTLIERS
SHOWING A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK, WHICH CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR
CHARACTERIZATION OF THE SYSTEM SHOWING RAPID WEAKENING IN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. THE REST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, BUT DIFFER IN THE POSITION
AND TIMING OF THE TURN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 APR 2017 Time : 021000 UTC
Lat : 12:28:23 N Lon : 135:18:30 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1009.8mb/ 34.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.3 3.2

Center Temp : -50.9C Cloud Region Temp : -53.4C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 16.0 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

Look at that outflow.

[euro6208]

TXPQ28 KNES 250328
TCSWNP

A. 03W (NONAME)

B. 25/0230Z

C. 12.5N

D. 136.3E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/WINDSAT/AMSU

H. REMARKS...LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS ON WESTERN EDGE OF DEEP
CONVECTION. CONVECTION IS COLDER AND HAS CONSOLIDATED MORE THAN 24 HOURS
PREVIOUS...DEVELOPING A CDO FEATURE. CDO IS IRREGULAR AND GREATER THAN
1.5 DEGREES WIDE FOR DT=3.0. MET=2.5 BASED ON 24 HOUR SLOW DEVELOPMENT
TREND. PT=3.0 DUE TO .5 BEING ADDED FOR W CLOUD TOPS WITH CENTRAL
CONVECTION. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

24/2058Z 12.2N 136.3E WINDSAT
25/0043Z 12.9N 136.5E AMSU


...RUMINSKI

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 03 RELOCATED//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 244 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AS IT SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION
WHICH ALSO DEPICTS A PARTIAL VIEW OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SSTS NEAR 29
CELSIUS, AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LAYER OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTERWARD, IT WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK
NORTHWARD THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE.
INCREASED OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WILL PROMOTE
MODERATE INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 45 KNOTS BEFORE INCREASED VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES RAPIDLY ERODE, THEN
DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COTC AS THE WESTWARD OUTLIER. IN VIEW OF
THIS, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

35kt flag S.

[1900hurricane]

First tropical storm of the year!

TS 1701 (Muifa)
Issued at 01:05 UTC, 26 April 2017

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 26 April>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°30' (13.5°)
E135°55' (135.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 27 April>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°10' (15.2°)
E133°50' (133.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 28 April>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°20' (17.3°)
E134°55' (134.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 29 April>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N19°25' (19.4°)
E139°05' (139.1°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 1008 hPa
Radius of probability circle 410 km (220 NM)

[euro6208]

Up to 40 knots and forecast to peak at 50 knots.

WDPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 03W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM WITH PULSATING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND SLIGHTLY IMPROVED
CONSOLIDATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES AND A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE OBSERVED IN
A PARTIAL 260116Z 89 GHZ AMSU-B IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KNOTS IS BASED BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND BY A HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGE FROM A 251245Z METOP-B
ASCAT
PASS SHOWING 40 KNOTS ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SSTS NEAR 29 CELSIUS, AND AN EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FEEDING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET.
CURRENTLY TS 03W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 03W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS TRACK GUIDED BY THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 50 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 24 TS 03W WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND
ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST. INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES WILL INCREASE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATE
THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS TIGHT AGREEMENT
IN THE TRACK TRAJECTORY, ALTHOUGH SOME SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING FASTER
ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND TAU 48. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN