SPAC: FRANCES - Tropical Cyclone

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

As of 18:00 UTC Apr 21, 2017:

Location: 9.0°S 141.2°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Friday 21 April 2017
for the period until midnight CST Monday 24 April 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

There are currently no tropical lows in the region. However a weak tropical low is currently located over the Gulf of Papua (about 1000 km east northeast of Nhulunbuy). This tropical low is expected to enter the northeast Arafura Sea on Sunday then take a west to southwest track across the Arafura Sea next week. There is a slight chance this low will form into a tropical cyclone next week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Saturday:Very Low.
Sunday:Very Low.
Monday:Very Low.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Sunday 23 April 2017
for the period until midnight CST Wednesday 26 April 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low, 1007 hPa, is located in the Arafura Sea, near 7.5S, 137.5E, about 530 km north of Nhulunbuy at 12:30pm CST on 23 April 2017. The tropical low is expected to take a southwest track across the Arafura Sea and slowly develop during the coming days with an increasing risk that it could reach cyclone strength on Wednesday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Monday:Low.
Tuesday:Low.
Wednesday:Moderate.

http://satview.bom.gov.au/

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Wednesday 26 April 2017
for the period until midnight CST Saturday 29 April 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low, 1006 hPa, was located just north of the Northern Region, over the central Arafura Sea near 7.8S 131.4E, about 390 km north of Cape Don at 12:30pm CST on 26 April 2017 and was moving towards the west southwest at 10 km/h.
The tropical low is expected to continue moving west to southwest across the Arafura Sea, into the Timor Sea by Friday and to the west of the Northern Region on Saturday. The low may slowly develop during the coming days, with a risk that it could reach cyclone strength late Thursday or Friday. It will remain north of the Northern Territory.
Even if the low does not develop into a tropical cyclone, winds over the southern Arafura Sea, Timor Sea and about the northwest coast of the Northern Territory are expected to increase tonight or early tomorrow, with gales possible south of the low from tomorrow morning.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Thursday:Moderate.
Friday:Moderate.
Saturday:Low.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.5S 131.8E TO 10.6S 126.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 260000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.1S 130.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.4S 132.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 130.4E, APPROXIMATELY 265
NM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
CONSTANT CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND A MOSTLY CIRCULAR
SHAPE. A 252209Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE PASS AND A 251946Z
GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOW DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT HAS RAPIDLY BECOME LESS AND
LESS ELONGATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN A MARGINAL BUT IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS), THAT IS BEING OFFSET BY STRONG
POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(30-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AND ARE SHOWING INTENSIFICATION AND CONSOLIDATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

HWRF

Code: Select all

               * HWRF 2017042600 *
               * SH97 INVEST *
 
                -------------------------------------------------- ---- STORM DATA -------------------------------------------- --------------
 
NTIME 022
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126
LAT (DEG) -8.1 -8.3 -8.9 -9.9 -10.5 -10.6 -11.0 -11.4 -11.6 -11.8 -11.9 -12.0 -12.3 -12.6 -12.7 -12.6 -12.9 -12.9 -13.2 -13.2 -13.5 -14.0
LON (DEG) 130.5 131.0 130.9 130.1 129.4 129.0 128.6 127.6 126.9 126.2 125.7 125.1 124.6 124.3 124.0 123.5 123.1 123.0 123.1 123.0 122.7 122.5
MAXWIND (KT) 28 41 34 47 47 54 61 76 86 83 75 79 78 86 78 52 41 37 49 37 37 29
RMW (KM) 129 104 88 110 161 97 76 93 96 105 40 104 93 72 115 115 115 136 86 18 23 103
MIN_SLP (MB) 1002 1003 1002 996 995 989 990 979 974 973 980 980 979 976 982 993 1002 1001 1002 1002 1003 1002
SHR_MAG (KT) 14 12 10 13 12 17 16 16 10 9 13 10 5 10 16 19 15 15 19 24 28 40
SHR_HDG (DEG) 237 246 226 189 166 174 165 150 149 176 181 152 128 150 142 142 150 159 145 140 129 134
STM_SPD (KT) of 5 September 4 11 6:05 8:09 7:06 5:06 5:04 4:05 3:02 2:02 5:05
STM_HDG (DEG) 112 154 209 223 237 238 240 250 254 256 259 250 232 236 270 257 238 180 180 232 211 201
SST (10C) 303 302 302 297 299 300 303 305 304 302 300 299 300 301 302 305 306 306 305 305 304 304
OHC (KJ / cm 2) 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999
TPW (MM) 58 61 60 58 57 57 56 53 52 51 50 49 48 48 48 49 49 49 48 48 48 46
LAND (KM) 356 334 268 157 132 158 171 263 256 237 243 249 245 240 258 302 310 317 287 295 295 263
850TANG (10M / S) -81 -103 -106 -117 -133 -128 -125 -130 -126 -118 -111 -112 -99 -90 -85 -82 -83 -76 -77 -71 -68 -63
850VORT (/ S) -82 -72 -53 -75 -64 -55 -68 -58 -61 -36 -68 -69 -51 -48 -57 -52 -66 -49 -60 -63 -34 -21
200DVRG (/ S) 106 112 91 110 106 99 76 79 60 75 77 86 72 51 32 37 41 59 43 18 -12 -29

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0739 UTC 27/04/2017
Name: Tropical Cyclone Frances
Identifier: 29U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 10.1S
Longitude: 129.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [249 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [16 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 75 nm [140 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 75 nm [140 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 27/1200: 10.4S 128.7E: 040 [080]: 040 [075]: 996
+12: 27/1800: 10.7S 128.0E: 055 [100]: 045 [085]: 995
+18: 28/0000: 10.9S 127.3E: 065 [125]: 050 [095]: 993
+24: 28/0600: 11.2S 126.6E: 080 [145]: 055 [100]: 990
+36: 28/1800: 11.7S 125.0E: 100 [180]: 050 [095]: 990
+48: 29/0600: 12.2S 123.5E: 120 [220]: 040 [075]: 998
+60: 29/1800: 12.6S 122.1E: 140 [255]: 030 [055]: 1004
+72: 30/0600: 13.0S 121.0E: 155 [290]: 020 [035]: 1007
+96: 01/0600: 13.2S 119.6E: 200 [370]: 020 [035]: 1006
+120: 02/0600: 12.9S 118.7E: 290 [535]: 020 [035]: 1007
REMARKS:
The position of Tropical Cyclone Frances is made with reasonable confidence
based on visible satellite imagery in conjunction with recent scat and microwave
passes.

The tropical low is located in a moist environment and beneath a diffluent
upper-level outflow pattern north of the upper level ridge. This is creating
strong upper-level divergence on the southern side of the system. The low has
been located in a marginally unfavourable shear environment, just north of a
strong shear boundary over recent days. Overnight and today, it appears that the
low has moved into the more favourable low to moderate [10-15kt] shear
environment. This, in conjunction with the arrival of a strong ESE surge from a
developing ridge over Australia, has allowed the low to develop well since 15
UTC.

Intensity is based on a 0.7 wrap on the VIS imagery, giving a DT of 3.0. Shear
pattern with the LLCC under the edge of the dense overcast also gives a DT of
3.0. Development over the last 24 hours has been D+, giving a MET of 2.5,
adjusted MET of 3.0 and Final T 3.0. Ascat pass at 0103 UTC shows winds of
30-35 knots on southern side, consistent with the previous analysis of FT 2.5 at
0000 UTC.

The tropical low is forecast to move towards the southwest during the next 24
hours as a low-level southeasterly surge continues to feed into the system, and
the mid-level ridge to the south weakens.

The low is forecast to further develop today and tomorrow as the environmental
conditions remain favourable, with a chance of rapid development continuing
tonight with the influence of the low-level surge and weaker shear. Upper level
outflow and moisture remain good, while vertical wind shear is expected to
remain at low to moderate levels [10-15 knots].

From Saturday, the low once again moves into a higher shear environment. Dry
air entrainment should also hinder development from later on Saturday, so
weakening of the system to below Tropical Cyclone strength should occur fairly
rapidly from late Saturday.

[1900hurricane]

JTWC has also classified it as 17P now as well.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

JTWC has also classified it as 17P now as well.

I think its about a 55kt storm atm.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0716 UTC 28/04/2017
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Frances
Identifier: 29U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 11.8S
Longitude: 125.6E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [237 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [17 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 983 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 75 nm [140 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 75 nm [140 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1010 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 28/1200: 12.1S 124.5E: 040 [080]: 070 [130]: 984
+12: 28/1800: 12.4S 123.5E: 055 [100]: 075 [140]: 983
+18: 29/0000: 12.8S 122.5E: 065 [125]: 070 [130]: 984
+24: 29/0600: 13.0S 121.6E: 080 [145]: 060 [110]: 986
+36: 29/1800: 13.3S 120.3E: 100 [185]: 050 [095]: 994
+48: 30/0600: 13.5S 119.2E: 120 [220]: 030 [055]: 1003
+60: 30/1800: 13.6S 118.4E: 140 [255]: 030 [050]: 1006
+72: 01/0600: 13.6S 117.8E: 155 [290]: 025 [045]: 1004
+96: 02/0600: 13.4S 116.5E: 200 [370]: 025 [045]: 1005
+120: 03/0600: 12.4S 114.4E: 270 [500]: 015 [030]: 1012
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Frances has shown evidence of an eye developing over the
last three hours. This, combined with earlier microwave and scatterometer
passes, gives high confidence in the location of the system.

Intensity was based on PAT and MET [with a D+] as DT not clear, despite
appearance of an eye, due to cirrus over the eye. The FT is also biased towards
the FT and CI = 4.5 by the overnight Ascat pass at 1336 UTC indicating winds of
45-50 knots on the southern side and observations in the area of 40-50 knots.

The cyclone is located in a moist environment in a diffluent upper-level outflow
pattern just north of the upper level ridge. This is creating strong upper-level
divergence with twin outflow channels seen in recent satellite imagery. This, in
conjunction with the arrival of a strong east to southeasterly surge from a
developing ridge over Australia, has sustained continued development of the
cyclone.

Model consensus suggest the cyclone will move towards the west-southwest over
the next few days due to mid level ridges located to the south and east. On this
west-southwesterly track, the system is expected to remain in a low sheared
environment and in a diffluent upper pattern for about another 24 hours before
the shear increases.

From later Saturday, the cyclone is expected to move into this higher shear
environment due to a mid to upper level trough approaching from the west, with
dry air entrainment weakening the system to below Tropical Cyclone strength on
Sunday.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]