Texas Spring 2017

[wxman22]

Heavy rain could be a issue also if any storms train, the European model is showing 2-3 inches of rain across most of Harris County fwiw.

[Cpv17]

Harris County looks like it will receive a good rain, but southwest of there where I'm at in Wharton County not so much. So I don't really have any expectations for this event. Not getting my hopes up. Everything looks to be towards Houston and points east and north of there for this particular event.

[1900hurricane]

It's snuck up a bit on me, but tomorrow has the darkhorse big severe weather day written all over it. The backing of surface winds relative to the strong mid-level flow over large instability can't help but raise an eyebrow. The shortwave might be running just a little ahead of the best instability, but if things line up just enough..

Here are some looks from the NCAR ensembles.

[bubba hotep]

It's snuck up a bit on me, but tomorrow has the darkhorse big severe weather day written all over it. The backing of surface winds relative to the strong mid-level flow over large instability can't help but raise an eyebrow. The shortwave might be running just a little ahead of the best instability, but if things line up just enough..

Here are some looks from the NCAR ensembles.

I've been keeping an eye on this system, more from a N. Texas rain perspective but the increasing svr wx threat has been pretty obvious. The NCAR ensembles highlight the upper Texas coast and SW Louisiana as the best overlap of strong UH and STP. Also, the GEFS reforecast tornado tool has been increasing the threat with each run. Here is today:

[weatherdude1108]

"Slow moving tropical system"? Ummm, please consider your wishes carefully. Perhaps a move to a less arid environment would be more suitable to one who labels themselves as the "rain miser".

That being said, we are expecting a nice rain event on beautiful Galveston island sometime in the Wednesday time-frame. Looking forward to it.

Oh I'm very careful with my wishes and my words when it comes to such things which is why I said tropical system rather than a tropical cyclone... There are times when that kind of system is the only thing to break a major drought. Granted we are not at that point yet. Lakes in the region are doing quite well. My point being that a great deal depends on the path whether this part of Texas either gets rain or dries up even more with those sorts of systems. Trust me, I have no wish to see a damaging hurricane or tropical storm hit the Texas coast. The same way that nobody wants to see an EF-4 rip swaths of destruction across populated areas.

And one last point If I might. Austin is by no means an arid environment. It may not be as wet as say Houston or east Texas but it certainly isn't like San Angelo, Midland/Odessa or El Paso. Droughts occure in wetter climates, just look at the tenderbox that is Florida.

No worries. When I read "slow moving tropical system" followed by "system develops" I assumed you were referring to a cyclone.

Yes, you are correct. Both Houston and Eastern Texas are less arid than Austin.

Definitely looking forward to the rains tomorrow. Supposed to be a double-shot of activity. Early morning showers and then a line of showers later in the day.

I'm jealous.
But, I am happy you are getting decent rains. I already have soil cracks popping up in the backyard lawn, under where I top dressed it a couple months ago. Guess I'll fill in the cracks with the left over compost. Ho hum.

[GalvestonWXGeek]

I'm jealous.
But, I am happy you are getting decent rains. I already have soil cracks popping up in the backyard lawn, under where I top dressed it a couple months ago. Guess I'll fill in the cracks with the left over compost. Ho hum.

Tell me about it. I have a home in Cedar Park and I was there most of last week. Bummer with the minimal rain over the weekend. Feels like a drought brewing in that area of the state. I'm hoping that the potential rain event mentioned by NTWX comes to fruition. My yard is dried out also (Cedar Park).

I guess we shall see about the decent rains forecast for tomorrow in Galveston. We could use some rain for sure.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Boom, and just like that, all of my rain chances for tonight and tomorrow are once again gone. The grass is getting crispier by the day. Make Texas Green Again.

[wxman22]

The SPC states that probabilities may go up.


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Wed May 03 2017

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SURROUNDING
AREAS OF EASTERN TEXAS...THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWEST
GULF COAST REGION...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTHEAST
AS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
One or two organized clusters of thunderstorms are expected to
evolve across parts of eastern Texas and southeastern Oklahoma
through the lower Mississippi Valley and northwest Gulf coast region
today into tonight. Activity will initially be accompanied by a
risk for severe hail, before the risk for damaging wind gusts
becomes more prominent. A few tornadoes are also possible.

...Synopsis...
Amplification within the westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude
Pacific appears likely to continue to translate inland across the
Pacific coast and the Rockies into the Plains during this period.
Within this regime, large-scale ridging is in the process of
building across the Pacific coast and U.S. intermountain region, and
is forecast to expand across the Rockies into the Canadian prairies
and northern U.S. Plains through tonight. Within the southern
branch of splitting downstream flow, models indicate that upper
trough amplification will proceed southeast of the central and
southern Plains, toward the lower Mississippi Valley. This is
expected to be accompanied by at least modest lower/mid tropospheric
cyclogenesis, which may commence along a quasi-stationary frontal
zone near the southern Plains Red River early today. East of the
Red River Valley, the front has stalled across the Ozark Plateau and
Tennessee Valley into the Mid Atlantic Coast region, and it appears
that the primary frontal wave will track along this feature through
the Ozark Plateau and adjacent portions of the Mississippi Valley by
12Z Thursday.

The aforementioned frontal zone has been preceded by a shallower
surge of low-level cooling and/or drying, off the south Atlantic
Coast and into the northern Gulf of Mexico. However, a plume of
rich low-level moisture is present to the south of this boundary
across the western Gulf of Mexico into southern Texas, where it is
in the process of advancing northward. Northward advection of this
moisture should continue through the warm sector of the developing
low, across much of eastern Texas and Louisiana, and perhaps
southeastern Oklahoma and southern Arkansas by mid day, beneath a
plume of warm elevated mixed layer air advecting northeastward in
advance of the evolving upstream trough. As this occurs, potential
exists for moderately large CAPE (2000+ J/kg) to develop over a
sizable area, depending on the evolution of forcing for ascent and
convective development associated with this destabilization, which
may be underway in at least a couple of areas by/or shortly after
12Z this morning.

...South central states...
Perhaps aided by forcing for ascent associated with an impulse
emerging from troughing within the subtropical stream, over the
Mexican Plateau, guidance remains suggestive that storms may
initiate on the leading edge of the richer low-level moisture return
near/inland of upper Texas and Louisiana coastal areas around or
shortly after 12Z this morning. Although lower/mid tropospheric
wind fields may be somewhat modest in strength (30-40+ kt) across
this area, and in fact much of the warm sector through much of the
period, given the anticipated destabilization, hodographs probably
will be at least marginally conducive to supercells. Guidance
suggests that is possible that forcing for ascent could contribute
to the upscale growth of an evolving mesoscale convective system
across at least southern Louisiana thereafter.

The influence of convective outflow generated by this early activity
on continued northward advection of the richer boundary layer
moisture into the lower Mississippi Valley remains unclear. But an
influx of this moisture ahead of the developing frontal wave,
through northeast Texas and adjacent portions of southeastern
Oklahoma and southwestern Arkansas is forecast to contribute to
sufficient destabilization to support additional organized
strong/severe storm development by this afternoon. Aided by
large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of the digging upper trough,
the evolution of another upscale growing convective system appears
possible, with development and southeastward propagation likely
focused along the boundary generated or enhanced by the lead
convective cluster.

How far northeast of coastal areas, into the lower Mississippi
Valley, this boundary is able to develop during the day remains one
point of uncertainty, and categorical and probabilistic lines have
been drawn to account for this uncertainty. Tornado and severe wind
probabilities could still be increased in subsequent outlooks,
focused within at least a narrow corridor along this boundary, once
it has begun to develop and can be better evaluated.

Depending on the still uncertain warm sector convective evolution,
given the forecast track of the surface low, it may not be out of
the question that organized strong/severe storms could impact areas
as far northeast as the Tennessee Valley by late tonight.
Additional strong/severe storm development is possible along/ahead
of the southward advancing cold front, across mid and lower Texas
coastal areas.

..Kerr/Cohen.. 05/03/2017

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 031138
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
638 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017

.AVIATION...
Tricky forecast, as the warm front moves northward aiding in
shower and thunderstorm development across most of the terminals
this morning. Therefore, currently MVFR to IFR across much of the
forecast area. May see a break in the rain and isolated thunder at
some sites late this morning, before the cold front sweeps
through SE TX from the north, later this afternoon. Should see
the main line of precipitation trek across the northern terminals
such as CLL and CXO beginning around 19Z and clearing the coast
closer to 00Z. Behind the front, expect conditions to dry out and
ceilings to rise as skies to begin to clear and high pressure
sets in.

Hathaway

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A pretty active day is in store for Southeast Texas as a warm
front moves northward this morning and a cold front pushes through
the area later this afternoon and off the coast this evening. As
of early this morning, SPC has issued an enhanced risk for severe
storms generally along and east of a line from Madisonville to
Houston to High Island. There is a slight risk for severe storms
to the west of this line over the remainder of the forecast area.
WPC has also introduced a slight risk for excessive rainfall
generally along and east of a line from near Madisonville to Katy
to San Luis Pass.

At 3:00 AM, the warm front was located from near BTP to UTS to
Madisonville. An upper level low pressure trough will move across
the plains during the day and push a cold front into SE Texas
later this afternoon and off the coast this evening. The warm
frontal boundary will be a focus later this morning for stronger
storms with locally heavy rainfall. The Texas Tech 3km WRF pushes
the warm front northeast of the forecast area by the midday
period. This should in turn move the potential for heavier rain
northeast of the forecast area. Uncertainty in exactly where this
boundary will move and the timing of its movement will help
determine the better rainfall coverage today. Another chance for
locally heavy rainfall will occur as thunderstorms develop ahead
of the cold front during the late afternoon and early evening
period. Model forecast soundings show the 0 to 3 km helicity
values reaching to over 400 at KIAH after 7:00 AM this morning and
then dropping to under 200 as the winds become southwesterly in
the early afternoon. The model also showed CAPE values increasing
to over 3000 during the mid to late morning at KIAH as well. These
point toward the risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and
isolated tornadoes with the stronger storms. PWs also reach into
the 98th percentile as compared to climatology today and to the
99th ahead of the cold front. This combined with good 850 mb
moisture transport over the frontal boundaries supports the slight
risk for excessive rainfall.

Clearing skies will be accompanied by cooler, breezy, and drier
conditions behind the cold front later this evening. Cooler than
normal temperatures are expected Thursday. As the upper ridge
builds overhead, temperatures will warm to around or slightly
above normal over the weekend and into the first of next week.

40

MARINE...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are streaming across the marine
zones this morning, as the warm front continues to push northward
and onto the coast of SE TX. Based off of current observations and
model guidance, will continue to carry SCEC conditions through the
day today. Winds in the northwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico,
will remain out of the SE around 10-20 kts this morning and will
eventually turn S/SW by this afternoon. With the passing of the next
front late Wednesday into early Thursday, expect winds to once again
turn clockwise. By 03Z Thursday, a northwesterly wind will prevail
with speeds between 20-25 kts. Sea heights will also be elevated
beginning early Thursday between 5 to 7 feet, and should remain high
until Thursday afternoon around 15Z. Therefore, a Small Craft
Advisory has been added to the forecast for 03-15Z Thursday. High
pressure will take control late Thursday, and winds should remain
out of the N/NW through early Saturday before turning around and
becoming onshore. Wave heights will slowly drop in height Thursday
into Saturday, and eventually fall to between 2 to 4 feet. The
weekend will bring calmer conditions, with the winds out of the E/SE
Sunday around 5-10 kts. Seas will also range between 1-2 feet, and
expect these conditions to continue through Wednesday of next week.

Tides are currently between 1-1.5 feet above MLLW. By 11am today,
tides are forecasted to reach up to 3 feet above MLLW.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 83 53 75 50 79 / 80 30 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 81 57 76 54 79 / 80 70 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 80 61 75 62 78 / 60 70 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT
Thursday for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston
Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...08

[Ntxw]

Front has made it through the Falls and far NW counties of DFW. Not a lot is associated with it right now, will we see another limited qpf passage?

[JDawg512]

Front has made it through the Falls and far NW counties of DFW. Not a lot is associated with it right now, will we see another limited qpf passage?

My hope is that we see some rain but even if we do, it won't be much. My gut feeling is less optimistic and I see a similar situation to what occured with the last system with the bulk of storms developing along or just east of 35.

But I gotta keep my hopes up! Might just have to start up the ol rain machine...

[weatherdude1108]

Front has made it through the Falls and far NW counties of DFW. Not a lot is associated with it right now, will we see another limited qpf passage?

My hope is that we see some rain but even if we do, it won't be much. My gut feeling is less optimistic and I see a similar situation to what occured with the last system with the bulk of storms developing along or just east of 35.

But I gotta keep my hopes up! Might just have to start up the ol rain machine...

I'm routing for the rain machine! Although the latest HRRR develop some meager showers in our area just after 5pm. Best action east and northeast of Austin. Granted I don't want large hail, but a nice, long moderate to heavy rain would be nice.
I'll be turning the sprinklers on Saturday.

[bubba hotep]

Front has made it through the Falls and far NW counties of DFW. Not a lot is associated with it right now, will we see another limited qpf passage?

Storms starting to fire but might be too late for areas west of I35. 12Z FWD sounding had a nice cap in place but showed better moisture quality than the other day. Maybe better moisture and forcing will help get rain for some areas that missed out over the weekend.

[Tireman4]

XUS64 KHGX 031601
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1101 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017

.UPDATE...
Bulk of thunderstorm activity continues to focus east of Southeast
Texas along a warm front stretching along the Louisiana coast
northwest towards Lufkin/Nacogdoches. Upper air soundings from
Corpus Christi and Del Rio showed 700 MB temperatures in excess of
10 degrees F over South Central and Southwest Texas, and with the
persistent southwest flow aloft across most of Southeast Texas
this morning per the KHGX VAD wind profiler... this has allowed
the cap to build farther east into the region this morning.
Interestingly, it appears the cap has built in as far east as the
Houston metro with mid level temperatures (around 750 MB) warming
nearly 4 degrees C between 1230Z and 15Z per aircraft soundings
out of Houston.

Still expect to see scattered to numerous showers develop beneath
the cap today (mainly along and east of Interstate 45),
especially as temperatures rise into the low to mid 80s this
afternoon. Will have to continue to monitor the extreme eastern
counties (Polk, San Jacinto, Liberty, and Chambers) for a possible
isolated flash flood risk should the warm front sag back into the
area this afternoon, but confidence in this occurrence is low as
subsidence associated with the thunderstorms over southern
Louisiana may also suppress more robust convective development
over the region and limit a heavy rain threat. However, a tornado
threat will continue to persist across portions of Liberty and
Chambers Counties as well as Galveston Bay through at least the
remainder of the morning with these locations being very close to
where thunderstorms are regenerating over Louisiana/extreme
southeastern Texas and low level shear is promoting 0-3 km storm
relative helicity values in excess of 300 m2/s2 per SPC
mesoanalysis. Tornado Watch 190 remains in effect for these areas
through 5 PM CDT.

Surface analysis as of 13Z showed the next feature of interest, a
cold front, stretching from near Sanderson to Abilene to Wichita
Falls and this front will continue to sweep across the state
today. Current timing for the front places it into the northern
counties late this afternoon/early evening with the front moving
off the Upper Texas Coast early Thursday morning. Increasing
instability ahead of the front as well as additional lift from a
passing shortwave trough swinging across the Southern Plains may
make another round of severe weather, including large hail and
damaging winds, possible along the cold front. Some uncertainty
exists on how far south and west storms will be able to build
along the front this evening owing to the presence of the
aforementioned cap. However, enough mid-level cooling may be able
to occur with the approach of the shortwave trough to weaken the
cap enough for thunderstorm development across most of Southeast
Texas with the front this evening and tonight.

Huffman

[Brent]

Looks like no rain here, only real storm is south of Dallas

Meh

[Cpv17]

My goodness, Louisiana is getting hammered today.

[Tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 031734
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017

.AVIATION...
Mainly MVFR ceilings and developing SHRA/TSRA are expected this
afternoon and on into this evening along/ahead of a cold front.
Lower ceilings/visibilities are possible with the storms. SSW/SW
winds (gusty) ahead of the front and will shift to the NW (gusty)
behind the front. Ceilings will eventually lift after the front
moves on through with VFR conditions expected to develop during
the late night hours. Only issue tomorrow will be the gusty NW
winds (around 15 to 20 knots and higher near the coast) that will
last into the mid to late afternoon hours before slowly diminishing.
42
&&

[PTrackerLA]

3.5" of rain so far at my house, numerous roads flooded in the area and it looks like we could continue to see storms training along I-10 until the squall line gets here tonight. Might start getting really ugly .

[Brent]

well it did rain for about 5 minutes

[PineyWoods]

Getting some small hail here in Tyler with quite a bit of lightning.