ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[weathaguyry]

0.5C again this week

Do you think that we'll stay around .5C for a while?

[Ntxw]

0.5C again this week

Do you think that we'll stay around .5C for a while?

ENSO does not move very fast, it takes weeks to see significant changes. 0.5C +/- 0.1C is what we will see in May most likely.

[cycloneye]

On May 11 the big CPC update of the month is released and we will see how they have things.

Here is the text of the Weekly CPC update that has Nino 3.4 the same reading as last week's update +0.5C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[weathaguyry]

As of late, the SOI values have not been very impressive at all, the 30 day average has poked up above -6

[Ntxw]

Dateline west winds looks to weaken late in the period but take a look at what is happening from 120W east. That's the eastern part of Nino 3.4, Nino 3 and Nino 1+2. Not everyday you see strong west winds in that region which trades are typical. Cold pool below will take even more of a hit. As I mentioned in posts above, by the end of the month we should see a pretty substantial warm pool develop.

[Ntxw]

As of late, the SOI values have not been very impressive at all, the 30 day average has poked up above -6

While that's true, it is a moving average. The next 10 days or so you are also losing the bigger positive readings from earlier in the period, so unless you make up for it with strong positives net gain could be negative.

The SOI is a noisy signal anyway but the past 3 weeks you have seen more negative readings than positive readings. Cold neutral or Nina is basically extremely low chance. Warm neutral or Nino is a 50-50

[Ntxw]

NCDC PDO rose signficantly in April to 0.52. Extrapolating it's trends in comparison to JISAO shows April could be anywhere from 0.90 to even 1+. The last NCDC .50 or greater was back in December when JISAO +1.17

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

[RL3AO]

You can really pick out the westerly winds in the east Pacific (at least north of the equator). Seems to be related to the large cyclonic gyre that may bring us our first EPac storm next week.

[Kingarabian]

NCDC PDO rose signficantly in April to 0.52. Extrapolating it's trends in comparison to JISAO shows April could be anywhere from 0.90 to even 1+. The last NCDC .50 or greater was back in December when JISAO +1.17

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

And from the looks of the current anomalies, I'm going to bet it'll hold firm at least into June.

[Ntxw]

NCDC PDO rose signficantly in April to 0.52. Extrapolating it's trends in comparison to JISAO shows April could be anywhere from 0.90 to even 1+. The last NCDC .50 or greater was back in December when JISAO +1.17

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

And from the looks of the current anomalies, I'm going to bet it'll hold firm at least into June.

There is nothing to suggest 2017 will change from the +PDO regime since 2014. The fluctuations sometimes are advertised but long run, which is the intended use, it's very stable. It will probably continue through the year. Its best shot was late last year when the Nina tried but couldn't do it.

[NDG]

NCDC PDO rose signficantly in April to 0.52. Extrapolating it's trends in comparison to JISAO shows April could be anywhere from 0.90 to even 1+. The last NCDC .50 or greater was back in December when JISAO +1.17

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

But still lower than this same time last year.

[Ntxw]

NCDC PDO rose signficantly in April to 0.52. Extrapolating it's trends in comparison to JISAO shows April could be anywhere from 0.90 to even 1+. The last NCDC .50 or greater was back in December when JISAO +1.17

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

But still lower than this same time last year.

Was weakening trend last year, arrow is pointing up this year. This is all trivial anyway, as I try to emphasize again and again the PDO is best used in context of many months and years. The amount of people saying the PDO would reverse to negative never materialized.

[NDG]

NCDC PDO rose signficantly in April to 0.52. Extrapolating it's trends in comparison to JISAO shows April could be anywhere from 0.90 to even 1+. The last NCDC .50 or greater was back in December when JISAO +1.17

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

But still lower than this same time last year.

Was weakening trend last year, arrow is pointing up this year. This is all trivial anyway, as I try to emphasize again and again the PDO is best used in context of many months and years. The amount of people saying the PDO would reverse to negative never materialized.

Just like this year it was an upward trend through April, May is when it started trending towards negative, if May keeps trending up then I see your point.

[Yellow Evan]

But still lower than this same time last year.

Was weakening trend last year, arrow is pointing up this year. This is all trivial anyway, as I try to emphasize again and again the PDO is best used in context of many months and years. The amount of people saying the PDO would reverse to negative never materialized.

Just like this year it was an upward trend through April, May is when it started trending towards negative, if May keeps trending up then I see your point.

Given the ENSO phase this year compared to last, I'd say it's more likely to trend up than not.

[NDG]

Was weakening trend last year, arrow is pointing up this year. This is all trivial anyway, as I try to emphasize again and again the PDO is best used in context of many months and years. The amount of people saying the PDO would reverse to negative never materialized.

Just like this year it was an upward trend through April, May is when it started trending towards negative, if May keeps trending up then I see your point.

Given the ENSO phase this year compared to last, I'd say it's more likely to trend up than not.

Good point.

[Kingarabian]

NCDC PDO rose signficantly in April to 0.52. Extrapolating it's trends in comparison to JISAO shows April could be anywhere from 0.90 to even 1+. The last NCDC .50 or greater was back in December when JISAO +1.17

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

But still lower than this same time last year.

Was weakening trend last year, arrow is pointing up this year. This is all trivial anyway, as I try to emphasize again and again the PDO is best used in context of many months and years. The amount of people saying the PDO would reverse to negative never materialized.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

[Ntxw]

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Unless the North Pacific flips 180 in a hurry, like now, May will come in positive to make it 40 months straight unbroken on JISAO positive.

[dexterlabio]

The fact that the official La Nina last year was almost botched could be a sign that we have well entered the +PDO regime.

[Hurricaneman]

I'm thinking a pacific ENSO similar to 2004 but warmer in the mid latitudes like near Hawaii but that could be quite dangerous for Hawaii similar to 1992

[Kingarabian]

Based on the 850mb U-wind Anomalies 5 day averages, the latest GEFS, GFS, and the Euro (to an extent) runs keep the easterlies weak to non existent over the equatorial Pacific. At the same time, they show the easterlies returning and strengthening over the Atlantic MDR, extending into the far eastern Caribbean. That's typically what we see in an El-Nino and this may mean that a broader El-Nino pattern is beginning to take place.. We'll see if this materializes.