ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Hurricaneman]

We've been in a positive PDO since 2002 overall which means that any year now it will probably switch negative at some point the next few years

[NDG]

Based on the 850mb U-wind Anomalies 5 day averages, the latest GEFS, GFS, and the Euro (to an extent) runs keep the easterlies weak to non existent over the equatorial Pacific. At the same time, they show the easterlies returning and strengthening over the Atlantic MDR, extending into the far eastern Caribbean. That's typically what we see in an El-Nino and this may mean that a broader El-Nino pattern is beginning to take place.. We'll see if this materializes.

I don't know if I want to believe that the easterlies will be above average across the Atlantic MDR, when both the GFS and Euro show the MSLPs to be average to below average with the Azore's High to be non existent thanks to a -NAO over the next few days.
BTW, during El Nino event we see one heck of a low level jet across the central Caribbean, it has yet to materialize in that area nor forecasted by the CFSv2 for the next couple of months.

[Yellow Evan]

We've been in a positive PDO since 2002 overall which means that any year now it will probably switch negative at some point the next few years

PDO was largely negative from 1998-2013 (especially after 2007), and positive since 2014.

[dexterlabio]

We've been in a positive PDO since 2002 overall which means that any year now it will probably switch negative at some point the next few years

PDO was largely negative from 1998-2013 (especially after 2007), and positive since 2014.

That's what I thought so, too. I remember we had a lot of talk about the botched 2012 El Nino due to -PDO that seemed to be not going away until 2014.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/860127076443148288

[cycloneye]

Trade surge coming.

@MJVentrice
Upcoming strong suppressed Kelvin wave phsae will produce a trade surge over the Pacific during the 2nd-3rd week of May.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/860127404676837376

[WeatherEmperor]

Trade surge coming.

@MJVentrice
Upcoming strong suppressed Kelvin wave phsae will produce a trade surge over the Pacific during the 2nd-3rd week of May.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/860127404676837376

Luis,

Sorry for the stupid question...but does it help or hurt the chances of El Nino?


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[cycloneye]

Trade surge coming.

@MJVentrice
Upcoming strong suppressed Kelvin wave phsae will produce a trade surge over the Pacific during the 2nd-3rd week of May.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/860127404676837376

Luis,

Sorry for the stupid question...but does it help or hurt the chances of El Nino?


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

Hurts El Nino chances as waters dont warm with the trades.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/860128139435020288

[Hurricaneman]

based on that an El Niño is not set in stone and with the trade winds coming that cold pool below the surface will surface which it looks like it's doing the last day or so

[WeatherEmperor]

My head is spinning now. Just a few days ago members like Kingarabian were providing solid evidence that the El Nino is slowly developing and now this? Cfs is backing off its El Nino even more and the Twitter post about trades showing up later this months in the Pacific to potentially slow/halt the Nino. Can somebody pass me a bottle of Jack Daniels???


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[TheStormExpert]

My head is spinning now. Just a few days ago members like Kingarabian were providing solid evidence that the El Nino is slowly developing and now this? Cfs is backing off its El Nino even more and the Twitter post about trades showing up later this months in the Pacific to potentially slow/halt the Nino. Can somebody pass me a bottle of Jack Daniels???


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

Couldn't agree more! I don't think anyone knows what the outcome will be for this season(especially for the Atlantic). Too much back and forth to even know the littlest bit about what might happen with the ENSO. Just back in January there was no talk of an El Niño and just weeks after that bam, everyone is screaming another El Niño is about to happen.

In my opinion I think if the El Niño were to evolve it will be a Modoki or very weak at that. Atlantic-wise I think we will see very little(if any) effects from this.

[NDG]

Lol, one day all indications are for a full blown El Nino then the next day we see the contrary. That's the reason for only a 50/50 chance for an El Nino from the Pros

[Kingarabian]

To be fair, the CFS keeps getting quoted for some reason and it's the main reason why there's a lot of confusion.
ENSO is composed of many variables. We still don't know everything about it and how it completely works. But it moves very slowly, over a period of time. We can't focus on daily movements/oscillations especially if the indicators don't work that way.
But if you take a look at the main variables for ENSO, there's hard evidence that they favor an El Nino compared to a Neutral and a La Nina. Warm PDO, tanking SOI, warming of the Nino regions, and WWB's. It's all there. These aren't anomalies, or predictions. The Nino regions will continue to warm as these WWB's pass through, and we'll see what this trade burst will do. Because the last one in March was not all that impressive.

[Kazmit]

My head is spinning now. Just a few days ago members like Kingarabian were providing solid evidence that the El Nino is slowly developing and now this? Cfs is backing off its El Nino even more and the Twitter post about trades showing up later this months in the Pacific to potentially slow/halt the Nino. Can somebody pass me a bottle of Jack Daniels???


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

Couldn't agree more! I don't think anyone knows what the outcome will be for this season(especially for the Atlantic). Too much back and forth to even know the littlest bit about what might happen with the ENSO. Just back in January there was no talk of an El Niño and just weeks after that bam, everyone is screaming another El Niño is about to happen.

In my opinion I think if the El Niño were to evolve it will be a Modoki or very weak at that. Atlantic-wise I think we will see very little(if any) effects from this.

Factors affecting ENSO can change quickly, which results in predictions that can change quickly as well. I suspect we'll see a lot of "back and forth" with the forecasts until we can get a clearer idea of what will happen. But I agree with you, I don't think the effects of an El Niño (if one forms) will be that significant.

[weathaguyry]

I had a feeling that something was wrong with the El-NIno when that snake of neutral/below average water formed, because I'm pretty sure that isn't something you see before an El-Nino is about to form. I would say 50/50 of a Weak Modoki/ Warm-Neutral at this point

[Ntxw]

My head is spinning now. Just a few days ago members like Kingarabian were providing solid evidence that the El Nino is slowly developing and now this? Cfs is backing off its El Nino even more and the Twitter post about trades showing up later this months in the Pacific to potentially slow/halt the Nino. Can somebody pass me a bottle of Jack Daniels???


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

If you get past the ENSO politics (those favoring Atlantic activity finding data for no Nino, those in Pacific for bigger season there and quiet Atlantic looking for Nino) the empirical data hasn't changed much. Its postive neutral trying for a weak Nino which may sneak out by end of the year

[cycloneye]

"Its postive neutral trying for a weak Nino which may sneak out by end of the year"

If that is the case,it may not be too bad for Atlantic at peak ASO.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:

"Its postive neutral trying for a weak Nino which may sneak out by end of the year"

If that is the case,it may not be too bad for Atlantic at peak ASO.

In the end it may not be that ENSO has a huge influence in the Atlantic given a weak event but rather local conditions.

[weathaguyry]

You can see the difference a month makes in terms of an El-Nino trying to form...