2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[Hurricaneman]

The hurricane season could be busy or could be slow but if the trades come back especially to the pacific it could aid in the Atlantic having more activity due to less shear but things could change at the drop of a hat add in the Atlantic positive tripole and it actually lowers pressures in the tropics causing for more vertical instability in the MDR helping tropical waves maintain themselves and speaking of the vertical instability it's been higher than the last several years and is actually near normal

[AutoPenalti]

The hurricane season could be busy or could be slow but if the trades come back especially to the pacific it could aid in the Atlantic having more activity due to less shear but things could change at the drop of a hat add in the Atlantic positive tripole and it actually lowers pressures in the tropics causing for more vertical instability in the MDR helping tropical waves maintain themselves and speaking of the vertical instability it's been higher than the last several years and is actually near normal

So to understand this clearly... higher vertical instability means more active tropical development correct?

[cycloneye]

@philklotzbach
The eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed by a considerable amount since late March.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/860585395649527808

[Ntxw]

@philklotzbach
The eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed by a considerable amount since late March.

http://i.imgur.com/aD5WPp9.jpg

In addition the cool patch of waters from the Antilles northeastward, warmth east/southeast of it is likely helping instability. May favor an active deep tropic season. In a -AMO, or unfavorable deep tropics pattern would look the opposite.

[weathaguyry]

@philklotzbach
The eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed by a considerable amount since late March.

http://i.imgur.com/aD5WPp9.jpg

In addition the cool patch of waters from the Antilles northeastward, warmth east/southeast is likely helping instability. May favor an active deep tropic season. In a -AMO, or unfavorable deep tropics pattern would look the opposite.

Agreed, I would think that there are more and more factors that are pointing positive for the season, because I think that ENSO was the big wildcard, and now that looks to not hugely affect the Atlantic in any way, and now that ENSO is not an issue, we look at other factors such as Instability, Shear, etc...

[Ntxw]

Agreed, I would think that there are more and more factors that are pointing positive for the season, because I think that ENSO was the big wildcard, and now that looks to not hugely affect the Atlantic in any way, and now that ENSO is not an issue, we look at other factors such as Instability, Shear, etc...

I agree looking at ENSO is just more confusion than solutions. It's a big question mark, but locally the Atlantic conditions are not hostile.

[Kazmit]

I know SSTs aren't everything for tropical development, but the water temperatures here in the subtropics are already what I would consider average for late May or even early June. I suspect SSTs will be plenty warm throughout the season, even in the subtropics, and definitely enough to sustain a very powerful hurricane.

[Ntxw]

I know SSTs aren't everything for tropical development, but the water temperatures here in the subtropics are already what I would consider average for late May or even early June. I suspect SSTs will be plenty warm throughout the season, even in the subtropics, and definitely enough to sustain a very powerful hurricane.

SST's are always warm enough to support major canes almost anywhere (except way north obviously) come peak. What SST anoms can tell you is the pressure patterns above. Areas of cooler anomalies relative to other areas means they have been disturbed, thus there is rising motion and weaknesses for lower pressures. Ridges do the opposite. The current SST anoms suggest a much weaker Azores/Bermuda high.

[WeatherEmperor]

I know SSTs aren't everything for tropical development, but the water temperatures here in the subtropics are already what I would consider average for late May or even early June. I suspect SSTs will be plenty warm throughout the season, even in the subtropics, and definitely enough to sustain a very powerful hurricane.

SST's are always warm enough to support major canes almost anywhere (except way north obviously) come peak. What SST anoms can tell you is the pressure patterns above. Areas of cooler anomalies relative to other areas means they have been disturbed, thus there is rising motion and weaknesses for lower pressures. Ridges do the opposite. The current SST anoms suggest a much weaker Azores/Bermuda high.

Does this mean there is a higher probability of tropical systems recurving?


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[Hurricaneman]

I know SSTs aren't everything for tropical development, but the water temperatures here in the subtropics are already what I would consider average for late May or even early June. I suspect SSTs will be plenty warm throughout the season, even in the subtropics, and definitely enough to sustain a very powerful hurricane.

SST's are always warm enough to support major canes almost anywhere (except way north obviously) come peak. What SST anoms can tell you is the pressure patterns above. Areas of cooler anomalies relative to other areas means they have been disturbed, thus there is rising motion and weaknesses for lower pressures. Ridges do the opposite. The current SST anoms suggest a much weaker Azores/Bermuda high.

The Bermuda high is probably going to stay close to Bermuda aka its current location and would open up any activity from Nova Scotia to the eastern GOM as that will probably be my highest risk area especially OBX

[weathaguyry]

I know SSTs aren't everything for tropical development, but the water temperatures here in the subtropics are already what I would consider average for late May or even early June. I suspect SSTs will be plenty warm throughout the season, even in the subtropics, and definitely enough to sustain a very powerful hurricane.

SST's are always warm enough to support major canes almost anywhere (except way north obviously) come peak. What SST anoms can tell you is the pressure patterns above. Areas of cooler anomalies relative to other areas means they have been disturbed, thus there is rising motion and weaknesses for lower pressures. Ridges do the opposite. The current SST anoms suggest a much weaker Azores/Bermuda high.

The Bermuda high is probably going to stay close to Bermuda aka its current location and would open up any activity from Nova Scotia to the eastern GOM as that will probably be my highest risk area especially OBX

So maybe something we have to pay attention to is storms that ride up the whole east coast? Such as Irene 11', Gloria 85', and Donna 60'?

[Hurricaneman]

maybe

[TheStormExpert]

Anyone notice how below normal wind shear is forecasted to be by the 18z GFS @ 384hrs from the Eastern 2/3's of the Caribbean through most of the Tropical Atlantic.



I know this is probably likely to be wrong knowing the long-range GFS but if this were to verify it is showing the complete opposite of what is to be expected during an El Niño across the Atlantic.

[Hurricaneman]

I hope this doesn't happen, it could be a possible mark of a big hurricane season so that needs to be watched for if it's even remotely close we might have another tropical system before the hurricane season which I believe would be a record

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: I hope this doesn't happen, it could be a possible mark of a big hurricane season so that needs to be watched for if it's even remotely close we might have another tropical system before the hurricane season which I believe would be a record

Yeah overall I'd say for the foreseeable future overall conditions are slightly more favorable than what is usual across the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic. Having two Tropical Cyclones prior to June 1st has occurred several times before with last year and 2012 being the most recent.

[Alyono]

:uarrow: I hope this doesn't happen, it could be a possible mark of a big hurricane season so that needs to be watched for if it's even remotely close we might have another tropical system before the hurricane season which I believe would be a record

we had 2 before June 1 in 2012 and again last year. Would be a fairly common recent experience

[TheAustinMan]

The NMME has just completed its May run. Below is its SST anomaly projection for the August-September-October trimonthly period:

[Hurricaneman]

The NMME has just completed its May run. Below is its SST anomaly projection for the August-September-October trimonthly period:

Seems like a central pacific El Niño madoki, looks like it could be a rough road with that sea temperature configuration

[Yellow Evan]

Most of the warming there seems focused in Nino 3.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: Most of the warming there seems focused in Nino 3.

Looks more of an east based El-Nino to me. But these climate models have been pretty bad to date.