2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[stormlover2013]

i could see prediction changed to around 14-16 storms from the experts!!

[Kazmit]

i could see prediction changed to around 14-16 storms from the experts!!

It is possible. At this point, I definitely see the forecasted numbers being raised.

[TheStormExpert]

i could see prediction changed to around 14-16 storms from the experts!!

It is possible. At this point, I definitely see the forecasted numbers being raised.

Yeah they definitely have to raise them at this point with the latest trends. If we see an even busier season then last year the only thing we can hope for is storm tracks similar to 2010.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Dr. Philip Klotzbach explaining things to me on twitter.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/862007789656219648




 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/862026607455686656

[TheStormExpert]

I'd take anything at this point with a lot of salt. I know Dr. Philip Klotzbach is a great expert but he was very doubtful too about the 2016 season throughout it up until Matthew.

[Ntxw]

What data suggests this year will be bigger than last season? I'm curious on thoughts. Are positive neutral/weak nino signals usually better than cold neutral/weak nina signals?

[TheStormExpert]

What data suggests this year will be bigger than last season? I'm curious on thoughts. Are positive neutral/weak nino signals usually better than cold neutral/weak nina signals?

The fact that the Euro is now showing near normal pressures and precipitation. Last year it was showing higher than normal pressures and below normal precipitation and look what happened.

[Ntxw]

What data suggests this year will be bigger than last season? I'm curious on thoughts. Are positive neutral/weak nino signals usually better than cold neutral/weak nina signals?

The fact that the Euro is now showing near normal pressures and precipitation. Last year it was showing higher than normal pressures and below normal precipitation and look what happened.

But that doesn't suggest reality will always follow bias. It could also mean a near average season. Perhaps the euro forecast was poor last year and better this year? If it was that wrong last year, gives it will be right this year by that logic?

Clearly conditions were pretty good last year with many forecasting a pretty decent season regardless of that euro bias, because the conditions present at the time suggested otherwise. Is the warm MDR currently the reason?

[TheStormExpert]

What data suggests this year will be bigger than last season? I'm curious on thoughts. Are positive neutral/weak nino signals usually better than cold neutral/weak nina signals?

The fact that the Euro is now showing near normal pressures and precipitation. Last year it was showing higher than normal pressures and below normal precipitation and look what happened.

But that doesn't suggest reality will always follow bias. It could also mean a near average season. Perhaps the euro forecast was poor last year and better this year? If it was that wrong last year, gives it will be right this year by that logic?

Clearly conditions were pretty good last year with many forecasting a pretty decent season regardless of that euro bias, because the conditions present at the time suggested otherwise. Is the warm MDR currently the reason?

Has the Euro been upgraded as of recently?

[Ntxw]

The fact that the Euro is now showing near normal pressures and precipitation. Last year it was showing higher than normal pressures and below normal precipitation and look what happened.

But that doesn't suggest reality will always follow bias. It could also mean a near average season. Perhaps the euro forecast was poor last year and better this year? If it was that wrong last year, gives it will be right this year by that logic?

Clearly conditions were pretty good last year with many forecasting a pretty decent season regardless of that euro bias, because the conditions present at the time suggested otherwise. Is the warm MDR currently the reason?

Has the Euro been upgraded as of recently?

There has been some minor upgrades the past year, though I'm not sure how they effected it's forecast, if any. I just want to see more empirical data to help boost the raised forecast rather than some questionable euro forecast that many have claimed is questionable at best.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Look through SST maps from the past to May 8th this year there are no similar set ups that I can find. 2005 seems to be the closest and then 2016 believe it or not is the 2nd closest. I could be wrong, but I am having trouble finding a set up that is closely following the one we currently have.

[Kingarabian]

Yeah it's interesting how the Euro was being bashed and being called biased for showing higher pressures in the MDR and now since it's showing lower pressures, we're seeing calls for an increase of TC numbers for the hurricane season.

This same Euro is also forecasting that trade winds will be back over the MDR by the mid of June and the MDR cooling once again.

[TheStormExpert]

The MDR is always warm enough to support a tropical cyclone in the middle of hurricane season even if it is cooler than average.

[Yellow Evan]

The MDR is always warm enough to support a tropical cyclone in the middle of hurricane season even if it is cooler than average.

Yes but if SST's are cooler than normal over the MDR, that signifies that atmosphere will not be overly conducive, as the upper level divergence will be favored elsewhere.

[Kingarabian]

The MDR is always warm enough to support a tropical cyclone in the middle of hurricane season even if it is cooler than average.

But if there's cooling in the MDR that means higher pressures are present. So it'll be interesting to see what happens.

[Bocadude85]

Yeah it's interesting how the Euro was being bashed and being called biased for showing higher pressures in the MDR and now since it's showing lower pressures, we're seeing calls for an increase of TC numbers for the hurricane season.

This same Euro is also forecasting that trade winds will be back over the MDR by the mid of June and the MDR cooling once again.

Why would you not call for a increase in TC numbers if the Euro is now showing lower pressures then its previous forecast? It would only make sense to increase the numbers if the model is showing slightly more favorable conditions.

[Ntxw]

Yeah it's interesting how the Euro was being bashed and being called biased for showing higher pressures in the MDR and now since it's showing lower pressures, we're seeing calls for an increase of TC numbers for the hurricane season.

This same Euro is also forecasting that trade winds will be back over the MDR by the mid of June and the MDR cooling once again.

Why would you not call for a increase in TC numbers if the Euro is now showing lower pressures then its previous forecast? It would only make sense to increase the numbers if the model is showing slightly more favorable conditions.

Assuming 1. The Euro is correct, 2. How low the forecast was, and 3. If the forecast was soley relying on this model, which no good forecaster runs with without taking everything else into account

[Bocadude85]

Yeah it's interesting how the Euro was being bashed and being called biased for showing higher pressures in the MDR and now since it's showing lower pressures, we're seeing calls for an increase of TC numbers for the hurricane season.

This same Euro is also forecasting that trade winds will be back over the MDR by the mid of June and the MDR cooling once again.

Why would you not call for a increase in TC numbers if the Euro is now showing lower pressures then its previous forecast? It would only make sense to increase the numbers if the model is showing slightly more favorable conditions.

Assuming 1. The Euro is correct, 2. How low the forecast was, and 3. If the forecast was soley relying on this model, which no good forecaster runs with without taking everything else into account

Of course no one is expecting any one particular model to make a perfect forecast, but I don't see how people can criticize others for calling for a somewhat busier season based upon model outputs that are now showing somewhat better conditions in the Atlantic.

[tolakram]

I'm parsing words here but I don't see any personal criticism, just a discussion about the importance of a single model run for a product that has questionable skill.

Personally I upped my numbers due to both the euro dropping pressures and the growing model consensus that the el nino may be rather weak and / or late. I usually go higher than average due to increased detection and naming in the last 10 or so years.

[TheStormExpert]

First off most experts are currently calling for a below average season which is different compared to last year at this time when they were calling for a near normal or above average season.

Secondly last year at this time(correct me if I'm wrong) I believe the Euro was showing a good bit of high pressure dominating the vast majority of the Atlantic basin. Of course we have yet to see what the new forecast map looks like but assuming it is correct according to those who have seen it then it should be better looking in terms of MSLP across the Atlantic basin than what was being painted last season.

If this is the case and even with a Neutral to weak El Niño atmospheric pattern compared to a flat out weak La Niña pattern I have no reason to not believe that we could very well see similar to last seasons numbers or some more.

I am no meteorologist or an expert(despite my username) rather I'm just a weather fanatic.