ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

Trade burst on-route.

[weathaguyry]

Trade burst on-route.

What does the deep blue area signify near 180?

[Kingarabian]

[imghttp://i.imgur.com/TiaPR1E.gif[/img]

Trade burst on-route.

What does the deep blue area signify near 180?

That's the trade burst.

[Ntxw]

Trade burst on-route.

What does the deep blue area signify near 180?

Blues means trades, or cooling wind. Hot colors are westerly winds. 180 is dateline so this map means likely cooling at Nino 4. East of dateline is Nino 3.4 170-120W.

[WeatherEmperor]

Trade burst on-route.

What does the deep blue area signify near 180?

Blues means trades, or cooling wind. Hot colors are westerly winds. 180 is dateline so this map means likely cooling at Nino 4. East of dateline is Nino 3.4 170-120W.

So if this map shows likely cooling of Nino 4 when can we expect to see WWB to get the El Nino going ahead??


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[Hurricaneman]

Probably during the summer

[Kingarabian]

So if this map shows likely cooling of Nino 4 when can we expect to see WWB to get the El Nino going ahead??


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If the models verify, just judging by the SOI I would say after May 20th would be the best chance. Because if you look at what's happening east of 180, we see relaxed trades and weak westerlies. But depending on what this trade burst does to the ocean, we may need successive WWB's in order to see an El-Nino.

[Ntxw]

So if this map shows likely cooling of Nino 4 when can we expect to see WWB to get the El Nino going ahead??


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It's going to likely be a slow, dragged out process. Most likely hover where it is for a long time. We either stay in warm neutral or get just enough for a weak Nino, unless some unforeseen force amps it up in the summer. This is not a fully coupled event like 2015, where it was steadily climbing. We're kind of in a limbo where the background state wants a Nino but the Ocean isnt' quite supportive and much slower to react.

[weathaguyry]

[imghttp://i.imgur.com/TiaPR1E.gif[/img]

Trade burst on-route.

What does the deep blue area signify near 180?

That's the trade burst.

Thanks, I think I've been looking at too many maps today!

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/862303668443521024

[weathaguyry]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/862303668443521024

If the PDO is negative, and we have a neutral ENSO along with a warm Deep Tropics that would not be good

[Ntxw]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/862303668443521024

If the PDO is negative, and we have a neutral ENSO along with a warm Deep Tropics that would not be good

Mike Ventrice tweeted a similar forecast last season of the PDO possibly going negative by Aug or fall with a Nina. Never happened.

It takes years to truly consider a PDO regime flip. I'd tend to bite if there were a string of Ninas.

[WeatherEmperor]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/862303668443521024

If the PDO is negative, and we have a neutral ENSO along with a warm Deep Tropics that would not be good

Mike Ventrice tweeted a similar forecast last season of the PDO possibly going negative by Aug or fall with a Nina. Never happened.

It takes years to truly consider a PDO regime flip. I'd tend to bite if there were a string of Ninas.

In regards to last year, the PDO did temporarily dip into negative territory for a month or 2. Look at the image I attached and look at Sept and Oct and they are negative. It was just temporary but it happened. Some pro mets here stated that this dip aided in Matthew, Nicole and Otto blowing into major hurricanes late in the season...but there were other factors besides the PDO dip that contributed to that. So it is possible that this year we can see a similar temporary dip into negative.

I found the PDO data from the following source:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/





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[Ntxw]

If the PDO is negative, and we have a neutral ENSO along with a warm Deep Tropics that would not be good

Mike Ventrice tweeted a similar forecast last season of the PDO possibly going negative by Aug or fall with a Nina. Never happened.

It takes years to truly consider a PDO regime flip. I'd tend to bite if there were a string of Ninas.

In regards to last year, the PDO did temporarily dip into negative territory for a month or 2. Look at the image I attached and look at Sept and Oct and they are negative. It was just temporary but it happened. Some pro mets here stated that this dip aided in Matthew, Nicole and Otto blowing into major hurricanes late in the season...but there were other factors besides the PDO dip that contributed to that. So it is possible that this year we can see a similar temporary dip into negative.

I found the PDO data from the following source:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/





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NCDC does, and has for several years more volatile. The original source used and tracked longer is from JISAO at the U of Washington which never had the PDO negative. I say this again, the PDO is a decadal signal and ill advised to be used for short term hurricane season politics. I think its better use per say is if you had several years of negative values then value is taken in using as a" -PDO will hinder formation of a Nino thus helping the Atlantic"

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt

[Ntxw]

In other news, SOI is in its 12th straight day negative; 30 day is now over -10

[WeatherEmperor]

@ntxw

You are absolutely correct that PDO should be used as a long term thing and not short term. But that wasn't the point I was trying to make.

Look at it this way: Lets say Florida is going through a 12 month long drought. Over the period of 12 months, there is a 30 inch rainfall deficit but lets say 1 or 2 random days in that 12 month period there are 10 inch rainfalls each day. Overall, the 12 month average is still way below normal but those 2 days produced above average rainfall...just those 2 days only. I mentioned the PDO in a similar way and obviously I am using a very basic example and I know the PDO is WAY more complex than this.

Using the website from before, the PDO values for the entire year of 2014 was 0.47. For 2015 it was 0.90 and for 2016 it was 0.53. Many here have said the PDO flip to positive territory started around 2014 so you can see all 3 years long term are positive. The point isnt that the entire PDO as a whole flipped nagative last year. The point was that just for a couple of months in 2016 the values were nagative...but overall on a longterm scale it was still positive.

I remember a few pro mets alluding to the temp drop in PDO after the 2016 season ended and I wont mention who because they can speak for themselves. Perhaps they can chime in the fill in the gaps? Also perhaps Ventrice can explain further on Twitter what he means?


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[Ntxw]

I am a believer that the fall of PDO last year was a mask of a better shorter term variable, the weak Nina. You can make a better case it overshadowed the the longer trend and made the Atlantic more favorable with better direct evidence it helped than any arbitrary blip of the decadal oscillation.

[Kingarabian]

In other news, SOI is in its 12th straight day negative; 30 day is now over -10

Will be pretty negative again today and tomorrow, and possibly Froday.

[Kingarabian]

@ntxw

You are absolutely correct that PDO should be used as a long term thing and not short term. But that wasn't the point I was trying to make.

Look at it this way: Lets say Florida is going through a 12 month long drought. Over the period of 12 months, there is a 30 inch rainfall deficit but lets say 1 or 2 random days in that 12 month period there are 10 inch rainfalls each day. Overall, the 12 month average is still way below normal but those 2 days produced above average rainfall...just those 2 days only. I mentioned the PDO in a similar way and obviously I am using a very basic example and I know the PDO is WAY more complex than this.

Using the website from before, the PDO values for the entire year of 2014 was 0.47. For 2015 it was 0.90 and for 2016 it was 0.53. Many here have said the PDO flip to positive territory started around 2014 so you can see all 3 years long term are positive. The point isnt that the entire PDO as a whole flipped nagative last year. The point was that just for a couple of months in 2016 the values were nagative...but overall on a longterm scale it was still positive.

I remember a few pro mets alluding to the temp drop in PDO after the 2016 season ended and I wont mention who because they can speak for themselves. Perhaps they can chime in the fill in the gaps? Also perhaps Ventrice can explain further on Twitter what he means?


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Good evening WeatherEmperor,

I just wanted to touch up a bit more on the PDO numbers:
While the NCDC did show negative monthly values for Aug/September/October, we don't know what calculations they're using and exactly what scale they use to determine if the PDO is negative or not. For some reason, they incorporate their own index called the NCEI PDO, with the traditional PDO index used by JISAO and JMA.

Not to bash them or anything, but their monthly values for the PDO are very erratic and confusing. Even the numbers that Dr Ventrice is using are different from the NCDC. The monthly PDO values from JMA also do not show any negatives for 2016 (http://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/kaiyou/da ... do/pdo.txt), along with JISAO as Ntxw has pointed out.

If you look at the operational SST's from NESDIS for AUG-SEP-OCT you will see that although the PDO looks weak during those months, it still had a plethora of warm waters near Alaska and NW America. So that's not a negative PDO.
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean ... /2016.html

Secondly, I only recall one pro met on here saying that, the less warm values of the PDO in the fall months of 2016 induced activity on the Atlantic side. I don't recall Dr. Ventrice saying anything of that matter.
The PDO has influence on ENSO and the Pacific over a period of time. I don't think there's any research that confirms that the PDO affects the Atlantic side directly, if at all. But ENSO has influence on the Atlantic hurricane season. So you could say that the emergence of the weak Nina in fall 2016 helped induce activity.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the chances for El Niño are decreasing for the hurricane season but the El Niño may wait until winter to develop