2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[Ntxw]

Why would you not call for a increase in TC numbers if the Euro is now showing lower pressures then its previous forecast? It would only make sense to increase the numbers if the model is showing slightly more favorable conditions.

Assuming 1. The Euro is correct, 2. How low the forecast was, and 3. If the forecast was soley relying on this model, which no good forecaster runs with without taking everything else into account

Of course no one is expecting any one particular model to make a perfect forecast, but I don't see how people can criticize others for calling for a somewhat busier season based upon model outputs that are now showing somewhat better conditions in the Atlantic.

Its certainly agreeable conditions look decent. But criticizing the model with its biases when it wasn't the tool showing preferences then praising the model when it has preference. Conditions were never forecasted to be horrible. It's certainly a mixed bag of information, which seems like this season is no easy forecast, unlike last.

[NDG]

IMO the Caribbean is the area to watch for early "tropical" activity this season, low level divergence is basically nonexistent, instability has been near average (above past seasons), shear is coming down little by little and forecasted to get below average by the CFSv2.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/862659252434878465

[TheStormExpert]

:eek:

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/862659252434878465

Looking at that graph it looks as if there might be a slightly higher chance of Neutral conditions for the peak months.

[NDG]

:eek:

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/862659252434878465

Looking at that graph it looks as if there might be a slightly higher chance of Neutral conditions for the peak months.

The most important thing is that they have brought down the chances of El Niño and brought up the chances of Neutral. Got to love how Dr Phil twists the real story

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/862668774629142528

[tarheelprogrammer]

Not saying this season will be anything close to 2005, but wasn't 2005 also a warm Neutral?

[TheStormExpert]

Not saying this season will be anything close to 2005, but wasn't 2005 also a warm Neutral?

I believe it was cool Neutral but someone correct me if I'm wrong.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Not saying this season will be anything close to 2005, but wasn't 2005 also a warm Neutral?

I believe it was cool Neutral but someone correct me if I'm wrong.

What are some of the warm neutral years then?

[Ntxw]

2005 In the new official dataset ERSST v4 ONI is cold neutral, it was 1 trimonthly short of a weak Nina and 0.1C shy

[tarheelprogrammer]

2005 In the new official dataset ERSST v4 ONI is cold neutral, it was 1 trimonthly short of a weak Nina and 0.1C shy

Thanks a lot. I think 2004 would actually be closer.

[Hurricaneman]

2005 In the new official dataset ERSST v4 ONI is cold neutral, it was 1 trimonthly short of a weak Nina and 0.1C shy

Thanks a lot. I think 2004 would actually be closer.

And the ssta seems to be very similar to 2004 and nothing like 2005 hence why 2004 is a top 3 analog and a good reason to keep an eye on both the Atlantic and pacific sstas as that could hold the key to the hurricane season

[TheStormExpert]

2005 In the new official dataset ERSST v4 ONI is cold neutral, it was 1 trimonthly short of a weak Nina and 0.1C shy

Thanks a lot. I think 2004 would actually be closer.

And the ssta seems to be very similar to 2004 and nothing like 2005 hence why 2004 is a top 3 analog and a good reason to keep an eye on both the Atlantic and pacific sstas as that could hold the key to the hurricane season

What is SSTA?

[Hurricaneman]

Thanks a lot. I think 2004 would actually be closer.

And the ssta seems to be very similar to 2004 and nothing like 2005 hence why 2004 is a top 3 analog and a good reason to keep an eye on both the Atlantic and pacific sstas as that could hold the key to the hurricane season

What is SSTA?

Sea surface temperature anomalies

[SFLcane]

I'd like to here wxman57 take on this season. Personally Iam not liking what Iam seeing.

[TheStormExpert]

And the ssta seems to be very similar to 2004 and nothing like 2005 hence why 2004 is a top 3 analog and a good reason to keep an eye on both the Atlantic and pacific sstas as that could hold the key to the hurricane season

What is SSTA?

Sea surface temperature anomalies

Ok, thanks!

[TheStormExpert]

I'd like to here wxman57 take on this season. Personally Iam not liking what Iam seeing.

Wouldn't be surprised if we don't hear much from him for awhile. He's probably sitting back waiting and watching the trends.

Just a couple weeks ago everyone was screaming El Niño in our faces!

[weathaguyry]

A comparison of 2004, 2005, and 2017...

2004:


2005:


2017:


IMO, it sort of looks like a hybrid of the two years, but that may mean nothing...

[Hurricaneman]

2005 was actually a failed El Niño that actually cooled by June and July so that could be a possible analog but isn't tops yet

[weathaguyry]

2005 was actually a failed El Niño that actually cooled by June and July so that could be a possible analog but isn't tops yet

I was thinking 2004, 2005, and 2009 were my top analogs right now, but there aren't any spot-on analogs for this season