ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO Updates

#7801 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 11, 2017 11:05 am

Wow.Equal chances for Neutral or El Nino for Summer and Fall.

Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral and El Niño are nearly equally favored during the Northern Hemisphere summer and fall 2017.
ENSO-neutral persisted during April, with near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across the central equatorial Pacific and above-average SSTs in the eastern Pacific [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño index values were +0.5°C in the Niño-3 and Niño-3.4 regions, and +0.3 and +0.8°C in the Niño-4 and Niño-1+2 regions, respectively [Fig. 2]. The upper-ocean heat content anomaly was slightly positive during April [Fig. 3], reflecting the strengthening of above-average temperatures at depth around the Date Line [Fig. 4]. Atmospheric convection anomalies were weak over the central tropical Pacific and Maritime Continent [Fig. 5], while the lower-level and upper-level winds were near average over most of the tropical Pacific. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system remains consistent with ENSO-neutral.
Most models predict the onset of El Niño (3-month average Niño-3.4 index at or greater than 0.5°C) during the Northern Hemisphere summer [Fig. 6]. However, the NCEP CFSv2 and most of the statistical models are more conservative and indicate that while Niño-3.4 index may be near or greater than +0.5°C for several months, the warmth may not last long enough to qualify as an El Niño episode (5 consecutive overlapping seasons) and/or may not significantly impact the atmospheric circulation. Relative to last month, the forecaster consensus reflects slightly lower chances of El Niño (~45%), in part due to the conflicting model guidance and lack of a clear shift toward El Niño in the observational data. In summary, while chances are slightly lower than 50%, ENSO-neutral and El Niño are nearly equally favored during the Northern Hemisphere summer and fall 2017 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml

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Re: ENSO BREAKING NEWS:: CPC May 5/11/17 update: Equal chances for Neutral / El Nino for Summer and Fall

#7802 Postby Ntxw » Thu May 11, 2017 12:36 pm

Those numbers looks pretty decent to me. The ocean and atmosphere is not fully coupled, mixed 50-50 shot seems about right.
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Re: ENSO BREAKING NEWS:: CPC May 5/11/17 update: Equal chances for Neutral / El Nino for Summer and Fall

#7803 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 11, 2017 12:41 pm

Great CPC blog with the title MAYDAY.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... ate-mayday
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Re: CPC 5/11/17 update: Equal chances for Neutral / El Nino for Summer and Fall / CPC Blog=MAYDAY

#7804 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 12, 2017 1:08 am

SOI down to -12.4. We have a serious MJO pulse moving across the Indian Ocean which should drop pressures over Australia. So the daily's should flip positive over the weekend and into next week, however not enough to bring the SOI above -8 on the 30 day average. Then around May 20th it'll tank again as the MJO starts to traverse the Pacific.

Speaking of the MJO, this is our second active signal in a month... An active MJO correlates with an El-Nino. So the atmosphere appears to be very welcoming.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Fri May 12, 2017 1:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: CPC 5/11/17 update: Equal chances for Neutral / El Nino for Summer and Fall / CPC Blog=MAYDAY

#7805 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 12, 2017 1:09 am

PDO for April comes in @ +1.12
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Re: CPC 5/11/17 update: Equal chances for Neutral / El Nino for Summer and Fall / CPC Blog=MAYDAY

#7806 Postby weathaguyry » Fri May 12, 2017 6:12 am

It appears the SOI came in today at -4.42, so we shall see just how much this MJO pulse chips away at the 30 day average. When the SOI first crashed in Mid-April it was down into the -30s, so as we pass mid- may we may be throwing away those values and replacing them with neutral/positive numbers that will also make a good dent in the 30 day average
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Re: CPC 5/11/17 update: Equal chances for Neutral / El Nino for Summer and Fall / CPC Blog=MAYDAY

#7807 Postby Ntxw » Fri May 12, 2017 8:02 am

Kingarabian wrote:PDO for April comes in @ +1.12


That's higher than I was expecting when eye-balling the NCDC value from previous months. Pretty big jump
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Re: CPC 5/11/17 update: Equal chances for Neutral / El Nino for Summer and Fall / CPC Blog=MAYDAY

#7808 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri May 12, 2017 9:43 am

Kingarabian wrote:PDO for April comes in @ +1.12


Whats the significance of this?


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Re: CPC 5/11/17 update: Equal chances for Neutral / El Nino for Summer and Fall / CPC Blog=MAYDAY

#7809 Postby Ntxw » Fri May 12, 2017 9:50 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:PDO for April comes in @ +1.12


Whats the significance of this?


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It was a fairly big jump month to month, discrepency with the NCDC. In the bigger scheme it doesn't change much just another positive reading for almost 3 and a half years.

Also too much focus off the coast of North America as the PDO box is more than just that area. Cooling south of the Bering and east of Japan likely attributed to the higher value.
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Re: CPC 5/11/17 update: Equal chances for Neutral / El Nino for Summer and Fall / CPC Blog=MAYDAY

#7810 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri May 12, 2017 9:52 am

Ntxw wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:PDO for April comes in @ +1.12


Whats the significance of this?


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It was a fairly big jump month to month, discrepency with the NCDC. In the bigger scheme it doesn't change much just another positive reading for almost 3 and a half years.


Sorry I did not clarify. I meant significance in terms of tropical cyclone development in the ATL


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Re: CPC 5/11/17 update: Equal chances for Neutral / El Nino for Summer and Fall / CPC Blog=MAYDAY

#7811 Postby Ntxw » Fri May 12, 2017 10:24 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:Sorry I did not clarify. I meant significance in terms of tropical cyclone development in the ATL


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Directly, probably nothing more than it has already done. It means Nina or cold neutral is unlikely this year, but everyone knows that already.
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Re: CPC 5/11/17 update: Equal chances for Neutral / El Nino for Summer and Fall / CPC Blog=MAYDAY

#7812 Postby tolakram » Fri May 12, 2017 11:33 am

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Re: CPC 5/11/17 update: Equal chances for Neutral / El Nino for Summer and Fall / CPC Blog=MAYDAY

#7813 Postby Ntxw » Fri May 12, 2017 1:12 pm

No doubt though huge trade burst will occur near and west of the dateline. This will likely put a lid on a strong or possibly moderate Nino chances. With Nino 4 in the crosshairs is it possible we see cool waters in the west and warm in the east? A reverse modoki? :lol:. I say that with great skepticism of the term but a fun thought no less.

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Re: CPC 5/11/17 update: Equal chances for Neutral / El Nino for Summer and Fall / CPC Blog=MAYDAY

#7814 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 12, 2017 1:52 pm

Ntxw, other than at the subsurface, do 850-hpa winds also affect the surface? Because although the trades in March did help create that cold pool, they didn't do much to curtail warming at the surface.
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Re: CPC 5/11/17 update: Equal chances for Neutral / El Nino for Summer and Fall / CPC Blog=MAYDAY

#7815 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 12, 2017 2:02 pm

Latest subsurface frame shows that the recent WWB's have helped the warm pool to the east continue to expand west. If it weren't for the current trade burst occurring, we would've seen a nice warm pool fully developed and ready to go by June.

Image
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Re: CPC 5/11/17 update: Equal chances for Neutral / El Nino for Summer and Fall / CPC Blog=MAYDAY

#7816 Postby Ntxw » Fri May 12, 2017 2:28 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Ntxw, other than at the subsurface, do 850-hpa winds also affect the surface? Because although the trades in March did help create that cold pool, they didn't do much to curtail warming at the surface.


I don't fully understand the relationship between the winds at various levels of the atmosphere and it's interaction with various depths of the ENSO waters. Still very large unknowns when it comes to ENSO that we don't yet to understand. I haven't seen a thorough written paper on this specific relationship as of now. But you are right that despite the trades this spring the near surface shallows (50-100m or less) depth of warmth has managed to be above normal while deep below it is not as warm.
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Re: CPC 5/11/17 update: Equal chances for Neutral / El Nino for Summer and Fall / CPC Blog=MAYDAY

#7817 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri May 12, 2017 2:43 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Ntxw, other than at the subsurface, do 850-hpa winds also affect the surface? Because although the trades in March did help create that cold pool, they didn't do much to curtail warming at the surface.


I don't fully understand the relationship between the winds at various levels of the atmosphere and it's interaction with various depths of the ENSO waters. Still very large unknowns when it comes to ENSO that we don't yet to understand. I haven't seen a thorough written paper on this specific relationship as of now. But you are right that despite the trades this spring the near surface shallows (50-100m or less) depth of warmth has managed to be above normal while deep below it is not as warm.


Here is a good one.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ElNino/
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Re: CPC 5/11/17 update: Equal chances for Neutral / El Nino for Summer and Fall / CPC Blog=MAYDAY

#7818 Postby Ntxw » Fri May 12, 2017 3:09 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Ntxw, other than at the subsurface, do 850-hpa winds also affect the surface? Because although the trades in March did help create that cold pool, they didn't do much to curtail warming at the surface.


I don't fully understand the relationship between the winds at various levels of the atmosphere and it's interaction with various depths of the ENSO waters. Still very large unknowns when it comes to ENSO that we don't yet to understand. I haven't seen a thorough written paper on this specific relationship as of now. But you are right that despite the trades this spring the near surface shallows (50-100m or less) depth of warmth has managed to be above normal while deep below it is not as warm.


Here is a good one.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ElNino/


Thanks for the link! I have read this information before along with other works. They do explain generality of directional winds averaged but they don't include the various depths of the atmosphere. It is a good place to start but there is much more yet that I have not seen written.
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Re: CPC 5/11/17 update: Equal chances for Neutral / El Nino for Summer and Fall / CPC Blog=MAYDAY

#7819 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri May 12, 2017 3:36 pm

Ntxw wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
I don't fully understand the relationship between the winds at various levels of the atmosphere and it's interaction with various depths of the ENSO waters. Still very large unknowns when it comes to ENSO that we don't yet to understand. I haven't seen a thorough written paper on this specific relationship as of now. But you are right that despite the trades this spring the near surface shallows (50-100m or less) depth of warmth has managed to be above normal while deep below it is not as warm.


Here is a good one.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ElNino/


Thanks for the link! I have read this information before along with other works. They do explain generality of directional winds averaged but they don't include the various depths of the atmosphere. It is a good place to start but there is much more yet that I have not seen written.


Agreed if I come across something with more depth I will share it with everyone here. Everyone have a great day.
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Re: CPC 5/11/17 update: Equal chances for Neutral / El Nino for Summer and Fall / CPC Blog=MAYDAY

#7820 Postby NDG » Fri May 12, 2017 4:15 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Latest subsurface frame shows that the recent WWB's have helped the warm pool to the east continue to expand west. If it weren't for the current trade burst occurring, we would've seen a nice warm pool fully developed and ready to go by June.

Image


Another thing to point out is how the warm pool really eroded underneath Nino 1+2, if that warm pool was to surface by over the next few months we will be looking at a Modokistyle El Nino, IMO. At least initially.
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