Texas Spring 2017

[Brent]

CPC definitely onboard with a wet pattern:

[weatherdude1108]

Severe thunderstorm warning issued just to my south, as soon as I pulled into garage. Looks like it is making a beeline right at my work. "60mph wind gusts and quarter size hail."

[Ralph's Weather]

Had a possible tornado move through my area again this evening, may have just been a funnel though as they is all that is confirmed so far.

[weatherdude1108]

Got almost a half inch of rain just now...in about 15 minutes time!

We need it!

[Texas Snowman]

WWUS54 KSHV 120153
SVSSHV

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
853 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017


TXC419-120215-
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0072.000000T0000Z-170512T0215Z/
Shelby TX-
853 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN SHELBY COUNTY...

At 852 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located about 4 miles south of Timpson, or 13 miles west of Center, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. Significant damage has been reported with this storm near Garrison.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Shelby County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3188 9445 3192 9446 3197 9428 3190 9427
3182 9429 3180 9441
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 256DEG 25KT 3186 9440

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

[bubba hotep]

FWD sounds skeptical over the modeled rain for Texas in the longer range. The 00z GEFS is at odds with the 00z Euro EPS, the EPS is much wetter for Texas. Given how the GEFS has been absolutely horrible with this current MJO, I'm inclined to trust the EPS with this upcoming period. Only time will tell but here is what the GEFS has:



The Euro EPS is much closer to this Super Cluster:

[vbhoutex]

Either one you look at isn't good for SE TX. We are drying out down here, but not into drought yet. Just one inch till the end of the month isn't bodding well for my water bill, if i want to keep the yard and landscaping alive.

[Ntxw]

I would take a mix of the two, compromise. Go with the Spring trend of heaviest QPF further north and east, but the pattern supports a much wetter pattern than before. The closer to the Red River you live the better your odds.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I would take a mix of the two, compromise. Go with the Spring trend of heaviest QPF further north and east, but the pattern supports a much wetter pattern than before. The closer to the Red River you live the better your odds.

I like the sound of that. We have been included in the abnormally dry to moderate drought category recently. Ive mentioned it before, but it is getting really dry and crispy here. A multiple inch rainfall would definitely help this area out tremendously.

[Ntxw]

70s today with a cool breeze is definitely feeling nice for mid May. Good yard work weather today and tomorrow.

In other news the +PDO came in last month at +1.12 which is 40 straight months since the beginning of 2014 which consequently was the last time long term drought existed. Since then no such drought has occured, there have been sporadic dry spells for different areas of the state from time to time but no major economic inflicting drought since really 2011-2014. Lakes have been close or near capacity since 2015. PDO more than likely has a big role as well as the Ninos and lack of long duration Ninas. Phil Klotzbach tweeted this streak is the longest since 1900 of positive PDO consecutive.

Lets hope our fortunes continue, because somewhere down the road, at some point it will change and hopefully we have learned our lesson in water management during the bad times and better prepared next time as population across the state continues to boom.

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose mentions significant rain totals possible next week. Here's hoping.

A couple of small troughs of low pressure are forecast to rotate around the parent trough and move across Texas Wednesday and Thursday. These systems look to initiate scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms across the region. There are early indications some of these storms could be strong to severe. Additional scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast Friday into early Saturday as the large trough slowly lifts northeast into the Plains states.

Several of today's forecast solutions indicate significant totals of rain will be possible across the region next Wednesday through Friday due to the troughs of low pressure and a very moist flow off the Gulf of Mexico. Some of the solutions are calling for totals as high as of 3-5 inches. The National Weather Service's 7-day rainfall forecast is calling for totals of 3-4 inches across the northern Hill Country, with 1-2 inch totals further south. There is currently much uncertainty with the rainfall forecast. But do note that significant totals will be a distinct possibility.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[bubba hotep]

The 12z Euro and EPS continue to be steadfast on bringing heavy rain to parts of Texas. The EPS has a mean of nearly 6" for DFW over the next two weeks. That is crazy for a mean! The River Forecast Center put out this graphic today:

[JDawg512]

Well that storm yesterday barely brushed my neighborhood. Got less than Tuesday which wasn't much rain to begin with. Still, I'd rather have moisture and high humidity over wind and low humidity this time of year.

EWX wants to keep rain chances pretty low till the end of next week citing over-aggresive rainfall amounts likely from the Euro plus pesky capping that has been the big story for many of us this spring. Hopefully we will make a transition into a wetter pattern.

[Ntxw]

A little off topic but not to be forgotten. The Solar Minimum is approaching.

"SUNSPOT COUNTS ARE PLUMMETING: Today marks the 33rd day in 2017 that the sun has been blank--no sunspots. This exceeds the total number of spotless days in all of 2016 (32). The accelerating pace of spotlessness is a sign that Solar Minimum is approaching. Forecasters expect the sunspot cycle, which swings like a pendulum between high and low sunspot number every ~11 years, to reach its nadir in 2019-2020. Stay tuned for more blank suns. "

http://spaceweather.com/

The last Solar Minimum bottomed out during 2009-2010 period

[1900hurricane]

I'm feeling somewhat bullish as far as next week's rain is concerned. Even with Adrian poofing, the deep southwest flow and splitting upper level jet structures should be favorable for impressive convection. I wouldn't even be surprised if a severe weather day or two gets washed out next week due to too many storms (more likely later in the week in my eye).

Speaking of severe weather, I'll actually be taking my longest chase trip to date next week, spanning multiple days. My fist preliminary target is western Oklahoma on Tuesday.

[Brent]

Euro is still very aggressive with multiple setups for widespread rain beginning Wednesday across the state all the way into next weekend

[Portastorm]

A little off topic but not to be forgotten. The Solar Minimum is approaching.

"SUNSPOT COUNTS ARE PLUMMETING: Today marks the 33rd day in 2017 that the sun has been blank--no sunspots. This exceeds the total number of spotless days in all of 2016 (32). The accelerating pace of spotlessness is a sign that Solar Minimum is approaching. Forecasters expect the sunspot cycle, which swings like a pendulum between high and low sunspot number every ~11 years, to reach its nadir in 2019-2020. Stay tuned for more blank suns. "

http://spaceweather.com/

The last Solar Minimum bottomed out during 2009-2010 period

Would this mean a cold and wet winter? Asking for a friend.

[bubba hotep]

Euro is still very aggressive with multiple setups for widespread rain beginning Wednesday across the state all the way into next weekend

The EPS continues to be wet for Texas but the different NWS offices still seem reluctant to buy in to it but FWD did mention the possibility of "heavy rain" in the latest discussion.

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/863397443823697920

[bubba hotep]

A little off topic but not to be forgotten. The Solar Minimum is approaching.

"SUNSPOT COUNTS ARE PLUMMETING: Today marks the 33rd day in 2017 that the sun has been blank--no sunspots. This exceeds the total number of spotless days in all of 2016 (32). The accelerating pace of spotlessness is a sign that Solar Minimum is approaching. Forecasters expect the sunspot cycle, which swings like a pendulum between high and low sunspot number every ~11 years, to reach its nadir in 2019-2020. Stay tuned for more blank suns. "

http://spaceweather.com/

The last Solar Minimum bottomed out during 2009-2010 period

Would this mean a cold and wet winter? Asking for a friend.

It could mean colder winters based on past minimums but we are coming out of a warmer base period. So maybe a return to normal?

[bubba hotep]

A little off topic but not to be forgotten. The Solar Minimum is approaching.

"SUNSPOT COUNTS ARE PLUMMETING: Today marks the 33rd day in 2017 that the sun has been blank--no sunspots. This exceeds the total number of spotless days in all of 2016 (32). The accelerating pace of spotlessness is a sign that Solar Minimum is approaching. Forecasters expect the sunspot cycle, which swings like a pendulum between high and low sunspot number every ~11 years, to reach its nadir in 2019-2020. Stay tuned for more blank suns. "

http://spaceweather.com/

The last Solar Minimum bottomed out during 2009-2010 period :D

QBO also reversed during the summer of '09. Just saying