ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[GeneratorPower]

In my view, the bottom line of El Niño is what happens in the Eastern Pacific and Niño 1+2. Higher than normal SSTs here causes rising air here. This causes sinking air in the east Atlantic and fewer Atlantic storms capable of overcoming the subsidence. This is why much is made of Modoki. It is basically pushing the effects of an El Niño out of the area we care about. Look at 2005. You had Niño 1+2 cooler than normal and was the opposite of an El Niño effect for the ATL. I'm watching Niño 1+2. If it keeps cooling I don't care what El Niño 3/4 does. Chances of an above normal season go up for the ATL.

[WeatherEmperor]

In my view, the bottom line of El Niño is what happens in the Eastern Pacific and Niño 1+2. Higher than normal SSTs here causes rising air here. This causes sinking air in the east Atlantic and fewer Atlantic storms capable of overcoming the subsidence. This is why much is made of Modoki. It is basically pushing the effects of an El Niño out of the area we care about. Look at 2005. You had Niño 1+2 cooler than normal and was the opposite of an El Niño effect for the ATL. I'm watching Niño 1+2. If it keeps cooling I don't care what El Niño 3/4 does. Chances of an above normal season go up for the ATL.

But you also have the SOI continuing to be more and more negative and the PDO more and more positive. The SOI moreso than the PDO + are negative factors for the Atlantic. Which factors will win out?


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[Kingarabian]

In my view, the bottom line of El Niño is what happens in the Eastern Pacific and Niño 1+2. Higher than normal SSTs here causes rising air here. This causes sinking air in the east Atlantic and fewer Atlantic storms capable of overcoming the subsidence. This is why much is made of Modoki. It is basically pushing the effects of an El Niño out of the area we care about. Look at 2005. You had Niño 1+2 cooler than normal and was the opposite of an El Niño effect for the ATL. I'm watching Niño 1+2. If it keeps cooling I don't care what El Niño 3/4 does. Chances of an above normal season go up for the ATL.

The jury is still out on whether Modoki Ninos limit Atlantic hurricanr activity or not. At the same time for their to be a Modoki, you're going to need 1+2 at sustained -1C levels, which is not the case here.

2005 can't be used as an analog here as ENSO was at borderline Nina levels.

[dexterlabio]

I don't know but predicting tropical activity in the ATL or any other basin might be getting ahead of actual ENSO prediction. We just can't predict a La Nina or certain type of El Nino showing up because we're anticipating an active tropical cyclone season. Yes, ENSO does affect tropical cyclone activity but local conditions still dictate whether the season will be active or not IMO. For one, 2013 was pretty much cold neutral but we all know what happened in the ATL that year. Also, 2006 and 2009 were El Nino years but that didn't even help the WPAC season to generate an average number of tropical cyclones. Lastly, La Nina was peaking at the last quarter of 2016 but that didn't stop the Pacific to spawn the most intense late season cyclone, Nock-ten.

[weathaguyry]

In my view, the bottom line of El Niño is what happens in the Eastern Pacific and Niño 1+2. Higher than normal SSTs here causes rising air here. This causes sinking air in the east Atlantic and fewer Atlantic storms capable of overcoming the subsidence. This is why much is made of Modoki. It is basically pushing the effects of an El Niño out of the area we care about. Look at 2005. You had Niño 1+2 cooler than normal and was the opposite of an El Niño effect for the ATL. I'm watching Niño 1+2. If it keeps cooling I don't care what El Niño 3/4 does. Chances of an above normal season go up for the ATL.

I was thinking 2005 may actually be a good analog for this season, because the SST configuration looks very similar. The Nino 1+2 region wasn't freezing, but we still had a remarkable Atlantic Season. Just look at the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll, and you will see that nobody was expecting any sort of "cold- neutral/borderline nina" for the peak of the season, not to mention 2005 had a very consistent streak of negative SOI values

[Ntxw]

In my view, the bottom line of El Niño is what happens in the Eastern Pacific and Niño 1+2. Higher than normal SSTs here causes rising air here. This causes sinking air in the east Atlantic and fewer Atlantic storms capable of overcoming the subsidence. This is why much is made of Modoki. It is basically pushing the effects of an El Niño out of the area we care about. Look at 2005. You had Niño 1+2 cooler than normal and was the opposite of an El Niño effect for the ATL. I'm watching Niño 1+2. If it keeps cooling I don't care what El Niño 3/4 does. Chances of an above normal season go up for the ATL.

I was thinking 2005 may actually be a good analog for this season, because the SST configuration looks very similar. The Nino 1+2 region wasn't freezing, but we still had a remarkable Atlantic Season. Just look at the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll, and you will see that nobody was expecting any sort of "cold- neutral/borderline nina" for the peak of the season, not to mention 2005 had a very consistent streak of negative SOI values

2005 is the busiest season ACE wise on record. That's a pretty enormous analog to throw out there, the odds are extremely low and would need ideal atmospheric conditions in near perfect alignment.

[NDG]

In my view, the bottom line of El Niño is what happens in the Eastern Pacific and Niño 1+2. Higher than normal SSTs here causes rising air here. This causes sinking air in the east Atlantic and fewer Atlantic storms capable of overcoming the subsidence. This is why much is made of Modoki. It is basically pushing the effects of an El Niño out of the area we care about. Look at 2005. You had Niño 1+2 cooler than normal and was the opposite of an El Niño effect for the ATL. I'm watching Niño 1+2. If it keeps cooling I don't care what El Niño 3/4 does. Chances of an above normal season go up for the ATL.

The jury is still out on whether Modoki Ninos limit Atlantic hurricanr activity or not. At the same time for their to be a Modoki, you're going to need 1+2 at sustained -1C levels, which is not the case here.

2005 can't be used as an analog here as ENSO was at borderline Nina levels.

During the heart of the '05 hurricane season, Jul-Oct, ENSO 3.4 was more neutral than borderline La Nina, it did not go into that borderline La Nina until late fall of' '05.

0.422 0.248 0.037 -0.220

[TheStormExpert]

Seriously!? Why is 2005 even being considered as a possible analog for this season? Btw, what was the total ACE anyways for that season, just curious.

[Ntxw]

Seriously!? Why is 2005 even being considered as a possible analog for this season? Btw, what was the total ACE anyways for that season, just curious.

2005 is used every season for the wrong reasons. ACE units for that season was around 250 units.

[TheStormExpert]

Seriously!? Why is 2005 even being considered as a possible analog for this season? Btw, what was the total ACE anyways for that season, just curious.

2005 is used every season for the wrong reasons. ACE units for that season was around 250 units.

Yeah 2005 is an anomaly of it's own. Probably won't see such a season again in our lifetime(hopefully).

[Kazmit]

Track wise, 2005 could be used as an analog, but as Ntxw stated it is very unlikely that we will experience that level of activity. But we'll have to see, the Atlantic is full of surprises...

[GeneratorPower]

Seriously!? Why is 2005 even being considered as a possible analog for this season? Btw, what was the total ACE anyways for that season, just curious.

Not an analog. Not an analog. An example of a situation. Cold Pacific near Mexico and South America causing favorable conditions in the ATL. In engineering at least, it is frequently very helpful to consider the extreme case of something to look for causes and effects.

[weathaguyry]

Seriously!? Why is 2005 even being considered as a possible analog for this season? Btw, what was the total ACE anyways for that season, just curious.

2005 is used every season for the wrong reasons. ACE units for that season was around 250 units.

Well, the SST configuration of 2005 looks similar to what we are seeing now, and 2005 was a hyperactive season, in no way am I trying to say that this year will be hyperactive, I just think that we may have favorable conditions in the Western Atlantic, and tracks similar to 2005 are not out of the question

[Kingarabian]

IMO The forecast for the 2017 hurricane season is going to get really tricky now, and it truly is a 50/50 event.

SOI has flipped positive and will be positive until around the 20th, before it shifts into neutral and back negative. Just for the record, the Euro weeklies did a pretty good job in predicting this current SOI drop back in early April. The SOI should be in a free fall into mid June after May 20th (if the Euro weeklies are to verify again). So if the current trade burst does not do too much damage at the subsurface, at that time we should see a pretty healthy warm pool situating under 140W and moving east and because of a negative SOI, theoretically there should be successive WWB's to aid it. I'm not too sure of the wind activity for 2009, but 2017 has the possibility of mimicking 2009, where the Nino did not not take off until June. However It may not be as strong as the 2009 Nino when factoring the subsurface and the warm pool at that time was really healthy.

But the SOI setup for 2017 compared to 2009 is a lot favorable:

[weathaguyry]

30 Day average for the SOI is now above -10 once again, due to the fact that the values in the -30's when the SOI first crashed are now being pushed away and replaced with neutral/positive values

[SouthFloridian92]

2005 is probably a once in a lifetime thing. Probably happen again in the 2080s.

[Yellow Evan]

Seriously!? Why is 2005 even being considered as a possible analog for this season? Btw, what was the total ACE anyways for that season, just curious.

2005 is used every season for the wrong reasons. ACE units for that season was around 250 units.

Well, the SST configuration of 2005 looks similar to what we are seeing now, and 2005 was a hyperactive season, in no way am I trying to say that this year will be hyperactive, I just think that we may have favorable conditions in the Western Atlantic, and tracks similar to 2005 are not out of the question

2005 is a unique hyperactive AHS season that we see every active AMO phase, as seen in 1887, 1933, and 1838. All those years came after a year where the USA got drenched with landfalls (2004, 1837, 1886, and 1932). So I doubt we see a 2005 redux.

[Kingarabian]

30 Day average for the SOI is now above -10 once again, due to the fact that the values in the -30's when the SOI first crashed are now being pushed away and replaced with neutral/positive values

Yeah we'll likely see positive values till the end of this week.

[Kingarabian]

Japenese model JAMSTEC, going with a moderate El-Nino.

[Kingarabian]

Looking at the subsurface, the months of May 2009 and May 2002 are starting to line up nicely with May 2017.