Texas Spring 2017

[bubba hotep]

I'm actually a bit surprised that they have the initial watch this far east covering most of DFW. Hopefully, we don't see any tornadoes in the metroplex this afternoon.

[South Texas Storms]

Meanwhile, further south, those of us in south central Texas are likely going to get screwed by the frickin' cap once again. This has been the story for the last 4-5 weeks (at least) where any measurable rainfall is squelched by the dreaded cap. Ugh.

And yeah, yeah, yeah ... don't tell me about the weekend forecast. I know it but I'll believe it when the rain actually falls.

#GrumpyPort

Yikes Porta...patience grasshopper

Euro and its ensemble has consistently indicated that much of SC TX will see about 2-3 inches of rain this weekend into early next week. I'm hopeful!

[Cpv17]

Still doesn't look like much rain will fall over the next week or so south of I-10 & along the coast. Maybe half an inch to an inch. We need a lot more rain than that around here. Will probably have to keep waiting.

[Ntxw]

So far cap has held in the FW forecasting area, Hrrr was too initiation happy. Most of the action in far NW TX

[gpsnowman]

So far cap has held in the FW forecasting area, Hrrr was too initiation happy. Most of the action in far NW TX

Yep. Was thinking the same thing. Thought more storms would be brewing out west. We shall see. It is humid as heck outside with some cloud tops trying to climb. It better rain.

[CaptinCrunch]

You know this is going to be a powerful system when you have a Tornado outbreak across the central Plains and Winter Storm warnings and watches for the Central Rockies of Colorado and Wyoming with 3"-8" of snowfall.

[bubba hotep]

So far cap has held in the FW forecasting area, Hrrr was too initiation happy. Most of the action in far NW TX

More and more attempts out there, it looks like the cap is giving way. Should see some sustained updrafts here pretty soon.

[weatherdude1108]

I mean, I like the cap when it keeps potential hail and tornadoes at bay. We do need rain at the same time. Been watering my yard once a week. Looks green, but there are soil cracks in it that have widened. Surface soil not completely rock hard, still able to break it up with my hand, but definitely hard. I have compost sitting in the cracks, waiting for that multi-inch rain to bury it.

I'm thinking we won't see any rain tonight or tomorrow (aside from light rain/drizzle). Hopefully this weekend's low severe threat with heavy rain/flooding potential with the slow-moving front will make up for it. Like Porta alluded to, I'm not holding my breath, and I'll believe it when I see it.


Bob Rose:

A more widespread coverage of rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast to occur across the region Saturday into Sunday when a weak cold front slowly sags southeast out of North Texas. Conditions appears favorable for the development of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms out ahead of the cold front beginning Saturday morning. Additional rain showers and thunderstorms look to continue Saturday night and Sunday behind the cold front. The threat for severe thunderstorms during this period will not be all that high. But due to the slow movement of the cold front and the presence of a very moist atmosphere, significant totals of rain will be possible Saturday into Sunday. Rainfall forecasts suggest widespread totals of 1-2 inches will be possible across the region, with isolated heavier totals. Do note that if the cold front moves slower than currently forecast, these totals could go higher. The rain is forecast to decrease in coverage across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Sunday afternoon but continue across the coastal plains region. A 20-30 percent chance for mainly light rain showers is forecast Sunday night.

Another chance for rain and thunderstorms is forecast to develop Monday as a trough of low pressure moves east out of Mexico. This system is expected to quickly pull moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in the development of rain showers and thunderstorms. The most favorable period for rain is expected to occur Monday night and Tuesday, with the rain tapering off Tuesday night. Rainfall from this system is forecast to generally average between 0.5 and 1 inch. This will be followed by sunny and dry weather next Wednesday through Friday.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[Brent]

So far cap has held in the FW forecasting area, Hrrr was too initiation happy. Most of the action in far NW TX

Yep. Was thinking the same thing. Thought more storms would be brewing out west. We shall see. It is humid as heck outside with some cloud tops trying to climb. It better rain.

93/69 at DFW... 88/72 at McKinney. You're right, it better rain. It's positively disgusting out.

HRRR trying to skip around DFW this evening Edit 19z did, 20z looks better with a decent little area in most of the metro between 6-9pm

[starsfan65]

They said storms should come here after 5:00 pm.

[South Texas Storms]

Still doesn't look like much rain will fall over the next week or so south of I-10 & along the coast. Maybe half an inch to an inch. We need a lot more rain than that around here. Will probably have to keep waiting.

Euro and Canadian say otherwise...1-3 inches across SE TX (even along the coast) this weekend into the first half of next week.

[Cpv17]

Still doesn't look like much rain will fall over the next week or so south of I-10 & along the coast. Maybe half an inch to an inch. We need a lot more rain than that around here. Will probably have to keep waiting.

Euro and Canadian say otherwise...1-3 inches across SE TX (even along the coast) this weekend into the first half of next week.

I sure hope they're right. Been a good 5 or 6 weeks here without any measurable rainfall & with all these windy days the ground has definitely dried out.

[South Texas Storms]

So far the strongest and most widespread coverage of storms have remained across Oklahoma today. Latest models suggest much of the state could dodge a bullet from this disturbance. However, increasing rain chances can be expected across a large part of Texas over the next several days as a series of disturbances track across the region. I'm hopeful that much of the area will receive 1-3 inches of rain by the middle part of next week.

[TheProfessor]

Looks like those Cumulus clouds out west are beginning to grow.

[gpsnowman]

Ok, a few storms are forming out west albeit too far west for my liking. Will the cap erode with enough daylight left to bring DFW much needed rain? Summer nastiness is near, gosh darn it dang blabbit nabbit it is near.

[bubba hotep]

This cell didn't waste any time going from struggling updraft to svr warned

[JDawg512]

Meanwhile, further south, those of us in south central Texas are likely going to get screwed by the frickin' cap once again. This has been the story for the last 4-5 weeks (at least) where any measurable rainfall is squelched by the dreaded cap. Ugh.

And yeah, yeah, yeah ... don't tell me about the weekend forecast. I know it but I'll believe it when the rain actually falls.

#GrumpyPort

I agree and unfortunately despite the possible 1-2 inch with some isolated higher totals projected for this weekend by the NWS, short range NAM, WRF and RGEM continue to indicate spotty coverage at best. Given that they have performed well this month, there's little reason to doubt them at this time. Then there is the persistent strong cap to contend with which EXW's afternoon discussion makes a point to highlight. Also frontal boundaries can be real tricky to forecast as we saw what happened last month where high amounts of rain were forecasted for the Austin area but the front ended up stalling 70 miles to the north flooding the Killeen-Temple area while dropping very little rain here. At this point unless we see some sort of heavy rain event around Memorial day weekend, May will follow in April's footsteps with well below average rainfall.

I need to find a way to defeat my arch enemy, the Dry Miser...

[Yukon Cornelius]

Unless something changes, or something else builds, it looks like everything appears to stay west.

[bubba hotep]

Tor warning now on that cell out west of DFW

[TheProfessor]

Tor warning now on that cell out west of DFW

We'll have to see if it takes a right turn like some of the storms up north are.