Texas Spring 2017

[Brent]

This is taking forever to get going around DFW. Models had a line in the metro by now...

Forever is right, slugging all day

I know there's supposedly no cap over DFW but what gives the storms are still so far away

The latest hrrr has the first line going mostly north and the daybreak line broken around DFW with barely any rain in dallas lol

[Ntxw]

This is taking forever to get going around DFW. Models had a line in the metro by now...

Forever is right, slugging all day

I know there's supposedly no cap over DFW but what gives the storms are still so far away

The latest hrrr has the first line going mostly north and the daybreak line broken around DFW with barely any rain in dallas lol

If that happens, we might as well just quit with these rain predictions from models. Storms to the southwest are pretty strong though, lets see if they hold together

[Cpv17]

Forever is right, slugging all day

I know there's supposedly no cap over DFW but what gives the storms are still so far away

The latest hrrr has the first line going mostly north and the daybreak line broken around DFW with barely any rain in dallas lol

If that happens, we might as well just quit with these rain predictions from models. Storms to the southwest are pretty strong though, lets see if they hold together

I feel like it's pretty much been raining in the same areas to the west of Dallas for over 24 hours straight now lol they've bound to be getting a flood out there.

[Brent]

The models have honestly been trash a lot of hype and nothing to show for it so far

[bubba hotep]

There is a cluster of svr warned cells that will be moving into the metroplex a bit later. Timing is slower but surface winds are still kicking, it will be interesting to see the 00z sounding.

ETA: that appear to be dying now lol....

[bubba hotep]

This is taking forever to get going around DFW. Models had a line in the metro by now...

Forever is right, slugging all day

I know there's supposedly no cap over DFW but what gives the storms are still so far away

The latest hrrr has the first line going mostly north and the daybreak line broken around DFW with barely any rain in dallas lol

Of course it does and that will probably be the right solution...

[JDawg512]

The models have honestly been trash a lot of hype and nothing to show for it so far

Funny how it's been the opposite up there regarding short range models. They've been spot on for us in the Austin area. Still skeptical we will see much rain tomorrow but I really hope that isn't the case. We really need it. Just dealing with fairly windy conditions over the last two days. Good amount of inflow off the gulf but nothing to break down the evil cap.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I know there's supposedly no cap over DFW but what gives the storms are still so far away

The latest hrrr has the first line going mostly north and the daybreak line broken around DFW with barely any rain in dallas lol

If that happens, we might as well just quit with these rain predictions from models. Storms to the southwest are pretty strong though, lets see if they hold together

I feel like it's pretty much been raining in the same areas to the west of Dallas for over 24 hours straight now lol they've bound to be getting a flood out there.

We definitely are. There a flood and flash flood warnings going up all around the area.

[bubba hotep]

Well that svr cluster sw of DFW that was supposed to move into the area has all but died. It's crazy how everything here lately dies before moving in.

[Ntxw]

There's a little storm coming up the border of Dallas and Tarrant counties making it's way to the big Airport...at least something?

[Brent]

Well that svr cluster sw of DFW that was supposed to move into the area has all but died. It's crazy how everything here lately dies before moving in.

The DFW cap is something to behold. Not even the first time either lol

The hrrr does however have the predawn line as a decent rain event again still but we'll see

[bubba hotep]

This is almost an exact replay of last night. Big lumbering cell down near Brownwood and storms moving into OK. Then a few weak attempts at cells firing in DFW only to quickly die. It's like why even have models like the HRRR... Two days in a row with a tornado watch and basically not a single storm in the metroplex. Ok, rant over.

[Brent]

This is almost an exact replay of last night. Big lumbering cell down near Brownwood and storms moving into OK. Then a few weak attempts at cells firing in DFW only to quickly die. It's like why even have models like the HRRR... Two days in a row with a tornado watch and basically not a single storm in the metroplex. Ok, rant over.

I'm really concerned about summer if we don't get some serious rain soon... I mean this month has been pathetic and apparently we can't even predict the weather 4 hours out why should I believe the long range? Lol

[bubba hotep]

Latest run of the HRRR wants to blowup the storms down SW of DFW and push them through before sagging a line up storms through later. This produces widespread 2-3"+ totals. Does anyone believe this?

00z FWD

[JDawg512]

Finally the line has developed down to I-10 just west of Ozona. Most recent NAM starting to show storms reaching Austin. Lets see how well the complex lasts and how far east it goes. Curious about the current strength of the cap along the 35 corridor.

[Brent]

Latest run of the HRRR wants to blowup the storms down SW of DFW and push them through before sagging a line up storms through later. This produces widespread 2-3"+ totals. Does anyone believe this?

The first part at least seems believable, so far on radar it's holding up, but on the flip side, the little showers around Dallas poofed so who knows lol

[weatherdude1108]

Finally the line has developed down to I-10 just west of Ozona. Most recent NAM starting to show storms reaching Austin. Lets see how well the complex lasts and how far east it goes. Curious about the current strength of the cap along the 35 corridor.

Yeah, me too. I water my yard once a week if there is no rain. It is green, but there are soil cracks in the yard still. If we go a week and a half to two weeks without measurable rain, with warm and windy conditions, I seem to get cracks. Compost is getting swallowed up by the cracks. Hoping for that line to come through and create a boundary for rain tomorrow.

[DonWrk]

Getting pretty frustrating all this rain just north and west for the past few days and nothing here!

[TheProfessor]

Latest run of the HRRR wants to blowup the storms down SW of DFW and push them through before sagging a line up storms through later. This produces widespread 2-3"+ totals. Does anyone believe this?

00z FWD
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings ... BS/FWD.gif

This skew-t boggles my mind. It should take much lift to get Thunderstorms from this. An outflow boundary should be able to do it. Yet Nada.

[Brent]

Latest run of the HRRR wants to blowup the storms down SW of DFW and push them through before sagging a line up storms through later. This produces widespread 2-3"+ totals. Does anyone believe this?

00z FWD
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings ... BS/FWD.gif

This skew-t boggles my mind. It should take much lift to get Thunderstorms from this. An outflow boundary should be able to do it. Yet Nada.

and I thought a boundary was left by the morning storms in the metroplex, yet nothing has gotten beyond the shower phase and then poof

*shrugs*

Weather here is weird lol

HRRR now has the highest totals south of Dallas, the line around Stephenville does make it in some form but the bulk of the daybreak line is south.