Texas Spring 2017

[Cpv17]

1.2 inches of rain early this morning!

Yay, it did rain after all over my yard. Just glancing at one of my gauges near the back door and it looks like it's close to 3 quarters of an inch. More rain is moving in.

Looks like areas just to the south of Austin are gonna get hit pretty hard here shortly. And that storm just to the south of Garner State Park right now looks awfully impressive on radar. Saw some purple in that cell earlier.

[TheAustinMan]

Lots of rain coming down right now in Southwest Austin, and plenty of lightning to go along with it. I snapped a pic about 10 minutes before the rains came. Nice to see liquid falling from the skies again

[Ntxw]

Busy morning in south-central Texas

[Ntxw]

Quick reminder we will remain in this thread for about a week and half or so. June 1st we will do our seasonal migration to the summer thread for June-July-August.

[bubba hotep]

Epic bust for the CAMs from yesterday afternoon and evening. The 00z 3k NAM had widespread 2"+ across DFW and the HRRR showed variations of the same. This is what we got:



Also, the medium range models were not any better with run after run showing 3-5" area wide. The WPC had a 4" bulls eye basically over DFW:



Then there was the SPC issuing tornado watches two days in a row with basically nothing happening in the DFW area.

The 4 county DFW area has over 5 million people in it, these bust have significant financial and societal impacts as numerous events were canceled or rescheduled. Also, the local tv mets take a pounding on social media but that is neither here nor there. It has just been bust after bust so far this spring for the models. They seem to only do good when they show warm and dry forecast

ETA: The ensembles and weeklies have sucked as well this spring.

[bubba hotep]

DFW airport hardly registered any rain at 0.06". With not much to go for the month only 0.16" thus far that is very dry for what is the wettest month of the year. No longer is it just a funny note but does not bode well for summer. The El Nino forecast is also looking bleak.

As I mentioned to Tireman4's post, of the past 4-5 summers this one makes me the most anxious for being a hot one.

And the models don't show much rain over the next 10 days. It is conceivable that DFW could end up officially with less than 1" for the month of May. The records of '23 and '11 could be challenged for lowest May totals ever.

[Ntxw]

It does feel great outside with the NW breeze in the 60s. A little silver lining at least. We still have a decent shot at a near normal or slightly below normal month

[weatherdude1108]

1.2 inches of rain early this morning!

Yay, it did rain after all over my yard. Just glancing at one of my gauges near the back door and it looks like it's close to 3 quarters of an inch. More rain is moving in.

Looks like areas just to the south of Austin are gonna get hit pretty hard here shortly. And that storm just to the south of Garner State Park right now looks awfully impressive on radar. Saw some purple in that cell earlier.

Yeah, that cell weakened and is mostly a flooding threat. We had another round around 9am this morning. Added another two tenths or so to my total. I went driving afterward to run an errand, and there were lightning bolts going off in the distance all over in front of me while driving, in the sky and to the ground. Highly charged elevated storms.

[Brent]

DFW airport hardly registered any rain at 0.06". With not much to go for the month only 0.16" thus far that is very dry for what is the wettest month of the year. No longer is it just a funny note but does not bode well for summer. The El Nino forecast is also looking bleak.

As I mentioned to Tireman4's post, of the past 4-5 summers this one makes me the most anxious for being a hot one.

And the models don't show much rain over the next 10 days. It is conceivable that DFW could end up officially with less than 1" for the month of May. The records of '23 and '11 could be challenged for lowest May totals ever.

Yeah what's the point of even wasting time on models anymore all it is bust after bust all spring. The la nada is a bust, everything good is a bust. You're not gonna convince me that summer wont be that bad with the lack of rain. The CMC had some 100s for memoral day last night btw lol

/end rant

[South Texas Storms]

I feel your pain Dallas friends...San Antonio also missed out on much of the rain today with the front. Every 12z model I looked at had totals over an inch there today and what did they get? Under .10 inch.

And I agree, the models have been extra terrible lately. Not sure what's going on with them, but it's giving us forecasters a headache.

[Brent]

Here we go again... GFS hyping up next weekend... ( ain't falling for it... Just feels all too familiar this spring...

I'll go with it fires up east of DFW this time.

Ha, it has widespread rain for Memorial Day... now that I could believe just because.

Euro also big rain event Memorial Day lol. Severe wx setup Sunday

It'll probably actually rain Memorial Day only because everyone has outdoor plans that day.

[Ralph's Weather]

Scattered storms all over N and E TX this morning. A strong one is located south of Tyler.

[bubba hotep]

We've had passing storms since about 2:30 this morning, lots of lightning.

[bubba hotep]

00z Euro has decent rain for just about all of Texas over the next 10 days. After a pretty calm week, this look to get active again next weekend with possibly a big svr wx day or two over the holiday weekend. 00z Euro EPS members have some massive CAPE days over the holiday weekend.

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/866316918512373760

[TheProfessor]

00z Euro has decent rain for just about all of Texas over the next 10 days. After a pretty calm week, this look to get active again next weekend with possibly a big svr wx day or two over the holiday weekend. 00z Euro EPS members have some massive CAPE days over the holiday weekend.

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/866316918512373760

Yeah I'm probably going to fall for another one, but hey, at least not during Finals or School. I've actually been glancing at this one for a while now. There were some GFS Runs showing 6,000-8,000 Cape from North Texas up through Oklahoma.

[bubba hotep]

The WSI index is out for next weekend:

[TheAustinMan]

I didn't know models could be so radically different within 6 hours of initialization, but this late afternoon, the HRRR and NAM3km depict very different scenes with regard to the strength and coverage of the thunderstorm cluster developing over Southwest Texas. (Also note the storms over New Orleans)

[JDawg512]

I have finally defeated my arch enemy (The Dry Miser).. At least temporarily. More heavy rain falling with frequent cloud to ground lighting. This is exactly what we've been needing but it's going to take more than a couple of inches to even get back to where we should be for an average May let alone what we didn't get in April. But for now I'm in celebration mode!!!

[bubba hotep]

The 18z Tx Tech run was pretty encouraging for DFW. Pretty much everyone picks up some rain tonight and then tomorrow night a pretty stout MCS plows through the metroplex.

[South Texas Storms]

I feel your pain Dallas friends...San Antonio also missed out on much of the rain today with the front. Every 12z model I looked at had totals over an inch there today and what did they get? Under .10 inch.

And I agree, the models have been extra terrible lately. Not sure what's going on with them, but it's giving us forecasters a headache.

And the San Antonio area got screwed again today. There's a freakin hole in the rainfall totals right around the city. I hate it when this happens...

Happy for everyone else who got rain though. Just wish there could be no one who gets left out.