ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[weathaguyry]

I have a very hard time believing that map, because it shows +3C anomalies reaching the surface east of 100W

[Kingarabian]

I have a very hard time believing that map, because it shows +3C anomalies reaching the surface east of 100W

Look at 2014 and 2015. We had even higher anomalies up to +5C. Of course we didn't see those values, It's just that when they reach the surface they naturally adjust lower.

[Ntxw]

I have a very hard time believing that map, because it shows +3C anomalies reaching the surface east of 100W

Look at 2014 and 2015. We had even higher anomalies up to +5C. Of course we didn't see those values, It's just that when they reach the surface they naturally adjust lower.

There are 2-4C pockets near 100W. Just look at RTG surface anomalies. It just doesn't average for an entire Nino basin. You must consider the area 2n-2s is relatively small area that the buoys cover.

[Ntxw]

Warmed will be 0.6C at the update. Nino 1+2 dipped down to 0.4C

[cycloneye]

Complete text of the CPC update of 5/29/17 that has Nino 3.4 up to +0.6C and Nino 1+2 down to +0.4C.

[cycloneye]

Which graphic we can believe?

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/869193737645289472

[tarheelprogrammer]

May 1st:


May 25:


I am not seeing the warming up that they are speaking of. If anything the Pacific has cooled some.

[WeatherEmperor]

May 1st:
[img]http://i.imgur.com/1CaBmqS.

May 25:
[img]http://i.imgur.com/m3L5Cax.g

I am not seeing the warming up that they are speaking of. If anything the Pacific has cooled some.

Websites like the one you posted and Levi Cowan's tropicaltidbits.com (CDAS) use satellites to estimate the SST's. The satellite estimates are proving to be inaccurate.

The data the ENSO folks use comes from the buoys which show the real time temps. Wish somebody could post the buoy data more frequently.



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[GeneratorPower]

The discrepancies between different data sets for the same sea temperatures is alarming to me. Now even the facts are in question. As soon as a new graphic of sea temps comes out, there are questions raised about the data. This can't be good for accurate forecasts.

[Ntxw]

The discrepancies between different data sets for the same sea temperatures is alarming to me. Now even the facts are in question. As soon as a new graphic of sea temps comes out, there are questions raised about the data. This can't be good for accurate forecasts.

This is the issue when you only rely on anomalies. Different climo datasets can be different especially when you are talking about tenths of a degree. Actual sea surface temps and how they behave can be just as valuable.

[Kingarabian]

The discrepancies between different data sets for the same sea temperatures is alarming to me. Now even the facts are in question. As soon as a new graphic of sea temps comes out, there are questions raised about the data. This can't be good for accurate forecasts.

Simply just don't put too much weight on satellite estimates, that'll solve the problem.That's why the CPC doesn't. NESDIS has done a bit better, but CDAS for example has 1+2 @ -0.6C for the past 2 weeks, when in fact it has averaged out to +0.7C for the past 2 weeks.

[Kingarabian]

May 1st:
[img]http://i.imgur.com/1CaBmqS.

May 25:
[img]http://i.imgur.com/m3L5Cax.g

I am not seeing the warming up that they are speaking of. If anything the Pacific has cooled some.

Websites like the one you posted and Levi Cowan's tropicaltidbits.com (CDAS) use satellites to estimate the SST's. The satellite estimates are proving to be inaccurate.

The data the ENSO folks use comes from the buoys which show the real time temps. Wish somebody could post the buoy data more frequently.



Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

These update weekly which I think use the TAO data.. A lot less noise.

[Kingarabian]

Which graphic we can believe?

[]https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/869193737645289472[/tweet]

I recall Bastardi saying something in the line of: "Our maps are showing different values than those at the CPC, probably due to the difference in datasets. I trust our products though",

But the CPC is using buoy values, not anomalies. Don't know how it applies.

[Kingarabian]

GFS and GEFS showing a WWB in 10 days. Euro relaxes the trades considerably in that same time frame.

[stormlover2013]

el nino isn't coming during hurricane season, if it does then maybe late late october or early november...get ready for an active hurricane season,

[weathaguyry]

GFS and GEFS showing a WWB in 10 days. Euro relaxes the trades considerably in that same time frame.

Maybe it can set the stage for a weak Nino for Late October- November

[WeatherEmperor]

el nino isn't coming during hurricane season, if it does then maybe late late october or early november...get ready for an active hurricane season,

I am not 100% sure about that. If the forecasted WWB is strong enough and we have more WWB in the future, it could establish a weak El Nino during the peak of the season. The forecast for El Nino is still near 50/50.

The peak is still 3 months away and that is plenty of time for El Nino conditions to take effect. Even if El Nino does not technically declared officially, we have been in warm neutral for a few months now and that may br enough to put slightly unfavorable conditions in the Atlantic.

I do not believe the Atlantic will become a graveyard but it might prevent an above normal season...and give us a more normal season instead...which can still be dangerous.


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[Ntxw]

We have averaged 0.5C since April 19th or roughly a month and most of May. If we hover 0.5C the rest of the way its possible by August MJJ might be first trimonthly and assuming it persists then El Nino conditions were present since May given it is a declaration after it has occured. Though ONI the official dataset is often more conservative than the weekly dataset. So one must remember if there is a declaration, it will be after the fact it has already occured months prior. We are still straggling borderline weak to neutral event so a little warm we might get, a little less might just miss but overall not a whole lot of difference.

[Yellow Evan]

el nino isn't coming during hurricane season, if it does then maybe late late october or early november...get ready for an active hurricane season,

Given that weeklies are at +.6C, I'd say we're quite close as is, but not sure if it'll be strong enough to prevent an active Atlantic hurricane season.

[weathaguyry]

I think that there is also a possibility of a near neutral event, I am not 100% positive that the ENSO will remain the same or only get warmer for the hurricane season, as some models such as the POAMA model and the CFS as of late is showing an event closer to neutral, also the TAO graphic shows a cold pool, which isn't true, but may lead to the thinking that the subsurface may trend cooler. But then again, I am only an amateur when it comes to this stuff