Northern Gulf of Mexico Disturbance

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cycloneye
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Re: Western Gulf of Mexico Disturbance

#41 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 03, 2017 12:46 pm

A mention from NHC.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure area, associated with the remnants of eastern
Pacific Tropical Storm Beatriz, is located over the Bay of
Campeche. While the associated shower and thunderstorm activity
currently shows signs of organization, little additional
development is expected due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Beven

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Re: Western Gulf of Mexico Disturbance

#42 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Jun 03, 2017 1:00 pm

It sure doesn't look like it is in any hurry to go anywhere fast. 8-)
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Re: Western Gulf of Mexico Disturbance

#43 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Jun 03, 2017 2:29 pm

it been rainy i hearing will be rainy all way to wed or thur here in miami
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Re: Western Gulf of Mexico Disturbance

#44 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sat Jun 03, 2017 4:45 pm

Can see some hint of a spin in the ugly mess

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Re: Western Gulf of Mexico Disturbance

#45 Postby lrak » Sat Jun 03, 2017 5:27 pm

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=M&tz=STN

BOC buoy broke into the 1007mb pressure range and that's the lowest I've seen in a while at this time of day.
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Re: Western Gulf of Mexico Disturbance

#46 Postby Hammy » Sat Jun 03, 2017 6:20 pm

How possible is it that the low stays further east closer to convection?
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Re: Western Gulf of Mexico Disturbance

#47 Postby lrak » Sat Jun 03, 2017 6:22 pm

BOC buoy fell to 1007.2mb :double:
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Re: Western Gulf of Mexico Disturbance

#48 Postby tolakram » Sat Jun 03, 2017 7:09 pm

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Re: Western Gulf of Mexico Disturbance

#49 Postby ouragans » Sat Jun 03, 2017 7:40 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak low pressure area, associated with the remnants of eastern
Pacific Tropical Storm Beatriz, is located over the Bay of
Campeche. The associated shower activity has diminished since
earlier today, and development of this system is not expected due
to strong upper-level winds
.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: Western Gulf of Mexico Disturbance

#50 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Jun 03, 2017 9:38 pm

I would say that this isn't looking as bad as expected, the LLC, albeit not great looking, is somewhat close to the convection, and it may have a shot of doing something if some of the storms can fire near the center and stay for a little while, also another question, if this does redevelop into a TD or a TS, will it be renamed Beatriz, or will it be named 02L/Bret?
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Re: Western Gulf of Mexico Disturbance

#51 Postby Hammy » Sat Jun 03, 2017 10:20 pm

weathaguyry wrote:I would say that this isn't looking as bad as expected, the LLC, albeit not great looking, is somewhat close to the convection, and it may have a shot of doing something if some of the storms can fire near the center and stay for a little while, also another question, if this does redevelop into a TD or a TS, will it be renamed Beatriz, or will it be named 02L/Bret?


I believe it would be Bret--as far as I know the naming is only kept if there is no interruption in advisories (by dissipation) during crossover.
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Re: Western Gulf of Mexico Disturbance

#52 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Jun 04, 2017 1:46 am

I'd say it's chances of becoming anything are nothing but dead as it is no longer mentioned in the TWO.
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Re: Western Gulf of Mexico Disturbance

#53 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sun Jun 04, 2017 3:42 am

GFS.EURO, & Canadian all show low pressure areas developing in the gulf likely baroclinic with cold front in the area not uncommon in early June. 00z GFS does smash the Biloxi/Mobile area with a beauty of a phantom storm at hr 372 8-)
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Re: Western Gulf of Mexico Disturbance

#54 Postby NDG » Sun Jun 04, 2017 7:57 am

Sheared closed low pressure area right over buoy 42005 in the BOC which is now reporting light winds with a pressure down to 1006mb.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055
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Re: Western Gulf of Mexico Disturbance

#55 Postby tolakram » Sun Jun 04, 2017 8:39 am

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Re: Western Gulf of Mexico Disturbance

#56 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Jun 04, 2017 8:56 am

Yeah, too much shear for this system to overcome at this time.
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Re: Western Gulf of Mexico Disturbance

#57 Postby drezee » Sun Jun 04, 2017 1:05 pm

NDG wrote:Sheared closed low pressure area right over buoy 42005 in the BOC which is now reporting light winds with a pressure down to 1006mb.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

There is indeed a sheared surface low. Winds shifted east to west with a clean center passage
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Re: Western Gulf of Mexico Disturbance

#58 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jun 04, 2017 1:49 pm

Only chance this would have is if it begin to move somewhat with the upper flow reducing the shear. if it hangs on another day the trough will accelerate to the NE which will be the only opportunity for it to be a shear messy blob.

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Re: Western Gulf of Mexico Disturbance

#59 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Jun 04, 2017 1:51 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Only chance this would have is if it begin to move somewhat with the upper flow reducing the shear. if it hangs on another day the trough will accelerate to the NE which will be the only opportunity for it to be a shear messy blob.

oh and hello everyone !

Welcome back Aric!
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Re: Western Gulf of Mexico Disturbance

#60 Postby drezee » Sun Jun 04, 2017 2:33 pm

drezee wrote:
NDG wrote:Sheared closed low pressure area right over buoy 42005 in the BOC which is now reporting light winds with a pressure down to 1006mb.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

There is indeed a sheared surface low. Winds shifted east to west with a clean center passage

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