Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
509 AM AST Fri Jun 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid-upper level trough persist over the region. The proximity
of this trough aloft will combined with an induce surface
enhancing showers and afternoon convection across the islands
today. A strong surface high pressure over the Atlantic ocean is
producing an east to east-southeast wind flow across the local
Archipelago. A tropical wave is forecast to move across the
Caribbean Waters Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Friday through Sunday...
The surge of low to mid level moisture that moved from the
Anegada Passage east over the eastern portions of Puerto Rico
generated isolated to scattered showers across region. These
showers are forecast to continue to move west and away land area
through mid morning. This afternoon available moisture in
combination with local effect and a mid to upper level trough will
be close enough to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity
across the interior and northwest portions of Puerto Rico. A
streamer from el Yunque could not be ruled out as it is possible
affecting the San Juan Metro Area from noon on. Most of these
showers and possible thunderstorms will dissipate at around
sunset.

Next tropical wave could be reaching our CWA from late Saturday
night through Sunday, increasing the chances for showers and
thunderstorms throughout this period.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A ridge is forecast to build and persist over the region through
the upcoming week. This will aid in moisture erosion across the
forecast area through much of next week. At lower levels, a
surface high pressure across the central Atlantic will yield an
east southeast wind flow Sunday through at least Thursday. If this
pattern holds, a fair weather pattern with warm to hot temperatures
and hazy skies is expected during this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Brief periods of MVFR conditions between Puerto Rico and Leeward
Islands due to isolated to scattered SHRA. Mtn top obscr ovr E PR in
passing SHRA/ low clds fm 02/08Z til 02/14Z. This afternoon mainly
VFR conditions can be expected across most TAF sites through the
forecast period. Periods of MVFR conditions with mountain
obscurations can be expected across TJMZ and TJSJ through 02/22Z.
Low level winds will continue mainly east at 10 to 15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Mariners can expect seas between 4 and 6 feet across the Atlantic
Waters and 3 to 5 feet elsewhere. Easterly winds at 15 to 20 knots
are expected across the local waters. Therefore, small craft
operators should exercise caution across Atlantic Waters and Mona
Passage. A small northeast swell will be reaching our local
Atlantic waters on Saturday night.

Beach goers, there is a moderate risk of rip current along most of
the beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Refer to
the Surf Zone Forecast for additional information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 89 78 / 40 20 30 30
STT 87 80 88 79 / 40 20 20 50

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
449 PM AST Fri Jun 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A mid-upper level trough persist over the region.
The proximity of this trough aloft will combined with an induce
surface enhancing showers and afternoon convection across the
islands today. A strong surface high pressure over the Atlantic
ocean is producing an east to east-southeast wind flow across the
local Archipelago. A tropical wave is forecast to move across the
Caribbean Waters Saturday night into Sunday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...Showers with isolated
thunderstorms developed this afternoon across the western interior
and northwest sections of Puerto Rico. Some showers affected also
the San Juan metropolitan area from time to time. This activity was
associated with the interaction with a induce surface trough and an
upper level trough to our west. The surface trough is expected to
exit the local region tonight. As a result, a drier trend is
expected across the region. However, some light passing showers
embedded in the trade winds are possible tonight into Saturday
morning affecting the eastern half of Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques
and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

For Saturday, a slot of drier air is expected to encompass the
region,which will limit somewhat the showers development across the
region. By late Saturday into Sunday, a tropical wave will move
across the region. Better moisture associated with this system is
expected to remain south of the local area. However, this moisture
will combine with local effect to produce scattered showers and
possible thunderstorms Sunday afternoon mainly across the western
section of Puerto Rico. By Monday, a very dry airmass is expected to
encompass the region, limiting significantly the chances for showers
across the area.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...An upper level ridge is
expected to build across the area during this period. As a result, a
fair weather pattern with warm to hot temperatures and hazy skies is
expected Tuesday and onwards. No significant weather events are
forecast to affect the local region in the long term.


&&

.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect
TJMZ and TJBQ through at least 02/22z. Periods of MVFR conditions
with mountains obscurations can be expected across these sites.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions can be expected. Low level winds will be
mainly east southeast at 10 to 15 kts.



&&

.MARINE...Easterly winds at 15 to 20 knots are expected across
the local waters. Small craft operators should exercise caution
across Atlantic Waters and Mona Passage due to seas between 4 and
6 feet...3 to 5 feet elsewhere. A small northeast swell will be
reaching our local Atlantic waters on Saturday night.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 90 / 20 30 30 40
STT 80 88 79 88 / 20 20 50 50

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
503 AM AST Sat Jun 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The islands are in the left entrance of the Upper level trough
axis, which will limit the potential for showers and thunderstorm
activity today. Low level moisture is forecast to increase late
tonight into Sunday, as a a tropical wave moves south of the
islands across the Caribbean Waters. A drier and more stable air
mass is expected the next work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...Isolated to scattered showers
were observed across the local region overnight. Low level winds
transported some of these showers inland, affecting mainly the east
section of Puerto Rico, Culebra and Vieques. Most of the shower
activity remained across the Atlantic waters. An upper level trough
continues across the region. This system will continue to aid in the
development of showers and possible thunderstorms through tonight.
This trough is expected to move away from the area next 24 hours.
Latest satellite images indicated a slot of drier air approaching
the U.S. Virgin Islands this morning. This slot of dry air is
forecast to encompass the region today which will limit somewhat
the shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon. However,
lingering moisture associated with the upper level trough will
combined with daytime heating and local effect to enhance the
shower and thunderstorms development late this afternoon mainly
across the northwest corner of Puerto Rico. Across the rest of the
area, mostly sunny skies with little shower activity is expected.


For Sunday, a tropical wave is expected to pass mainly south of the
region. As a result, showers and thunderstorms are expected to
affect the region through at least Sunday night. After the
passage of this wave, high pressure system will build across the
region on Monday. Very dry air is also expected as an upper level
ridge build across the region, limiting the shower activity across
the area.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...
The persistent strong mid-upper level ridge will aid in moisture
erosion across the forecast area through much of next week. At
lower levels, a surface high pressure across the central Atlantic
will yield an east southeast wind flow through at least Saturday.
If this holds, a fair weather pattern with warm to hot temperatures
and hazy skies is expected during this period. Then, a surface low
pressure with its associated frontal boundary is forecast to move
north of the area into the Central Atlantic Saturday to Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions can be expected across most TAF sites
through 03/16Z. Some showers and possible thunderstorms can be
expected in and around TNCM and TKPK through the forecast period.
Brief periods of MVFR conditions with mountain obscuration are
possible across TJBQ late this afternoon. Low level winds will be
mainly southeast at 10 to 15 kts except for sea breeze variations
across coastal areas.

&&

.MARINE...
A northerly swell moving across the Atlantic Waters and local
Passages is forecast to continue until Sunday. Mariners can expect
seas between 4 and 6 feet with easterly winds around 15 knots
across the Atlantic Waters, therefore small craft operators are
urge to exercise caution. Elsewhere, mariners can expect seas
below 5 feet and winds at 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 91 79 / 20 40 40 20
STT 89 81 88 80 / 30 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
435 PM AST Sat Jun 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Upper ridge will continue to build from the west
for the next several days. Upper trof will continue mainly northeast
of the forecast area. A tropical wave will continue move south of
the islands through Sunday. A broad surface ridge will continue
across the central and eastern Caribbean promoting east to
southeast trades.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...Limited shower and
thunderstorm activity was observed across portions of northwestern
Puerto Rico briefly this afternoon. It remained mostly dry
elsewhere. Winds were mainly from the east at 10-15 mph with sea
breeze variations and gusts between 20-25 mph. High temperatures
were in the high 80s to low 90s across coastal areas. Streamers
developed off the U.S. Virgin Islands but no shower activity was
detected over land areas. By late in the afternoon hours, shower
activity was increasing across the Caribbean Sea due to a tropical
wave. For the rest of the overnight hours into Sunday morning,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to
increase across the Caribbean waters and affect portions of the
USVI and the south and eastern portions of PR. After the wave
passage...afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly
across the interior and northwest quadrant of Puerto Rico.
Diurnally induced afternoon isolated showers are expected
elsewhere. Upper ridge and SAL layer will inhibit widespread
shower activity on Monday and Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...From previous discussion...Wednesday through
Sunday...The persistent strong mid-upper level ridge will aid in
moisture erosion across the forecast area through much of next
week. At lower levels, a surface high pressure across the central
Atlantic will yield an east southeast wind flow through at least
Saturday. If this holds, a fair weather pattern with warm to hot
temperatures and hazy skies is expected during this period. Then,
a surface low pressure with its associated frontal boundary is
forecast to move north of the area into the Central Atlantic
Saturday to Sunday.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected today with VCSH possible across the
local terminals after 03/18Z. VCTS possible at TJBQ and TJMZ after
18Z as well. Winds will prevail from the East to ESE with sea breeze
variations at about 10-15KT and occasional gusts through 03/23Z.
Winds decreasing slightly overnight but continuing from the east to
ESE, increasing once again to 10-15KT after 04/14Z.


&&

.MARINE...Northeasterly swell continues to create a high rip
current risk along some of the northern beaches of Puerto Rico.
Small crafts should exercise caution across the Atlantic waters
due to seas up to 6 feet and east winds up to 20 knots. Elsewhere
seas between 3-5 feet and east winds at 10-15 knots with higher
gusts will continue for the next few days. However, seas and
winds expected to increase across the Caribbean waters on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 79 91 / 40 40 20 20
STT 80 88 80 88 / 40 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
511 AM AST Sun Jun 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid to upper level ridge will build from the west over the
region through the first part of the upcoming week. An upper
level trof will amplify from the east over the North East
Caribbean around midweek. A tropical wave will continue westward
across the Caribbean Sea. A broad surface high pressure over the
Atlantic ocean will continue to induce an east to southeast wind
flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...Clear to partly cloudy skies
prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands overnight.
Dry weather conditions prevailed most of the night with no shower
activity observed over land areas. However, early this morning, a
line of showers moved quickly across the eastern half of Puerto
Rico. For today, lingering moisture will combine with daytime
heating and local effect to produce scattered showers with isolated
thunderstorms over the western interior and northwest sections of
Puerto Rico this afternoon. Rest of the area will enjoy mostly sunny
skies with little shower activity.

For Monday into Wednesday, a very dry airmass is forecast to
encompass the region. As a result, limited shower activity is
expected, with only some light passing showers affecting the local
islands from time to time, mainly during the early morning hours.

.LONG TERM...
Although a mid to upper level ridge is forecast to persist across
the islands, a trof aloft is expected to amplify near the region
from the east by the second half of this week. GFS and ECMWF
disagree in the final position and the strength of this trof
aloft. In addition, a second tropical wave is forecast to enters
the Caribbean Sea around mid week, moving near the islands
Thursday or Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions can be expected across most TAF sites
through 04/16Z. Brief periods of MVFR conditions with mountain
obscuration are possible across TJBQ and TJMZ this afternoon. Low
level winds will be mainly southeast at 10 to 15 kts except for sea
breeze variations across coastal areas.

&&

.MARINE...
A northerly swell continue moving across the Atlantic and
Caribbean Passages. Mariners can expect seas between 4 and 6 feet
across these waters, and should exercise caution. Elsewhere, seas
at 5 feet or less are expected with easterly winds at 10 to 15
knots.

There is a high risk of rip currents from the northwest coast of
Puerto Rico to the north central coastline. Refer to the Surf
Zone Forecast (SRFSJU) for additional information. Along the other
beaches in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands can expect a
low to moderate risk of rip currents.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 79 91 79 / 20 10 10 10
STT 89 81 88 80 / 20 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
442 PM AST Sun Jun 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Ridge aloft will continue to build from the west for
the next several days. Upper trof will continue mainly to the
east-northeast of the forecast area. A broad surface ridge will
continue across the central and eastern Caribbean promoting east
to southeast trades. A weak tropical wave is forecast to enter the
eastern Caribbean later in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...Scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms developed during the afternoon
hours across the northwestern sections of Puerto Rico. Streamers
developed off the USVI and over El Yunque area into the San Juan
metro area. Isolated showers were observed elsewhere along the
Cordillera Central and southeastern sections of the island.
Shower activity over western PR is expected to diminish around
23z and move across the Mona Passage through the early evening
hours. For the rest of the overnight hours, light passing showers
over the waters could reach from time to time the USVI, Culebra,
Vieques and the eastern third of PR. However no significant
rainfall is expected overnight into Monday morning.

A drier air mass with some suspended Saharan dust is expected on
Monday and Tuesday. This will limit significantly the development
of showers across the islands. Therefore, mostly fair weather with
some haze is expected to prevail. However, isolated diurnally
induced afternoon convection is possible across portions of
western PR each day.

.LONG TERM...Although a mid to upper level ridge is forecast to
persist across the islands, a trof aloft is expected to amplify
near the region from the east by the second half of this week. GFS
and ECMWF disagree in the final position and the strength of this
trof aloft. In addition, a second tropical wave is forecast to
enters the Caribbean Sea around mid week, moving near the islands
Thursday or Friday.


&&

.AVIATION...Prevailing VFR conds expected across the local
terminals. VCSH is expected across most of the local terminals,
TEMPO SHRA or TSRA is possible at TJBQ, VCTS possible at TJMZ after
04/18Z, TEMPO SHRA for TJSJ after 04/18Z as well. Winds from the ESE
with sea breeze variations at 10-15KT with occasional gusts through
04/23Z, decreasing thereafter to 5-10KT. SCT SHRA expected across
the local area overnight, causing VCSH across the local terminals
except TJMZ and possibly TJBQ.


&&

.MARINE...Small crafts should exercise caution across much of the
local waters due to east winds up to 20 knots and seas up to 6
feet. High rip current risk continues for the northwest to north
central coast of PR through 6 am on Monday. Seas will range overall
between 3-6 feet and east to southeast trades will prevail at
10-20 knots for the next several days.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 92 79 90 / 10 10 10 10
STT 80 89 80 89 / 20 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
517 AM AST Mon Jun 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Mid to Upper level ridge building from the west will dominate the
weather conditions at least until mid week. An Upper trof to the
will continue mainly to the east- northeast of the forecast area.
A broad surface high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean will promote
a east to southeast wind flow across the local islands. A weak
tropical wave is forecast to enter the eastern Caribbean by mid
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... Some showers were detected across the windward
sections of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands overnight
decreasing early in the morning. Elsewhere, mostly clear skies
with no shower activity were observed overnight and early in the
morning.

A drier air mass with some suspended Saharan dust is expected
today and Tuesday. This in combination with an upper level ridge
will limit significantly the development of showers across the
islands. As a result, limit shower activity with warm and hot
temperatures, and some haze is expected to prevail today through
this period. However, isolated diurnally induced afternoon
convection is possible across portions of western PR each day.
However no significant rainfall accumulations are expected at this
time.

Although a mid to upper level ridge is expected to dominate the
local weather conditions, a tropical wave is forecast to move near
the region increasing the available moisture across the islands
possibly by Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...
An upper level trof is expected to amplify from the east northeast
over the Northeast Caribbean displacing the upper level ridge to
the west by the end of the work week. However a mid level high
pressure is expected to hold over the islands by the second half
of this week. Another tropical wave is forecast to reach the
islands by the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mostly VFR conds expected across the local terminals throughout
the period. VCSH possible across TJBQ and TJMZ terminals after
05/16Z that may cause brief periods of MVFR conditions. Winds
prevailing from the ESE to SE with sea breeze variations at
10-15KT with occasional gusts through 05/23Z, decreasing
thereafter to 5- 10KT.

&&

.MARINE...Small crafts should exercise caution across much of the
local waters of Puerto Rico and St Croix due to east winds up to
20 knots and seas up to 6 feet. Mariners can expected seas between
3 and 5 feet across St Thomas and west and east Puerto Rico.
East to southeast trades will prevail at 10-20 knots for the next
several days.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 92 79 / 20 10 20 30
STT 91 81 90 79 / 20 10 20 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
254 PM AST Mon Jun 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Mid to Upper level ridge will dominate the weather
conditions for next couple of days. TUTT pattern establishes
northeast of the area late in the work week. A surface high
pressure over the Atlantic Ocean will continue to result in an
east to southeast wind flow across the local islands. A weak
tropical wave is forecast to enter the eastern Caribbean by mid
week but its expected to remain well south of the area.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...Fair weather conditions
are expected to prevail across the islands through at least
Wednesday morning. Under ridge aloft and dry air with small
amounts of Saharan dust over the area expect only diurnally
induced afternoon showers over portions of NW PR...with a slight
increase in moisture on Wednesday afternoon for better chances of
rain across the western portions of the island. Surface high
across the central and eastern Atlantic will continue to promote
moderate to locally fresh southeast trades across the forecast
area. Some sea breeze variation are expected across portions of
northern and western PR. Under brisk southeasterly wind flow,
light showers from streamers across the small islands are expected
during the day. However, no significant rainfall amounts are
expected across the USVI. Temperatures should reach the high 80s
to low 90s each day across coastal areas of all islands.

.LONG TERM...An upper level trof is expected to amplify from the
east northeast over the Northeast Caribbean displacing the upper
level ridge to the west by the end of the work week. However a mid
level high pressure is expected to hold over the islands by the
second half of this week. Another tropical wave is forecast to
reach the islands by the upcoming weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected across the local terminals through
the forecast period. Some HZ is expected due to Saharan Dust but
visibilities should prevail P6SM. Winds will continue from the ESE
with sea breeze variations at about 10-15KT with occasional gusts.
VCSH possible at TJBQ and TJMZ after 05/18Z. Winds to diminish after
05/23Z to 5-10 KT but more easterly.


&&

.MARINE...Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will persist
across the Atlantic and Caribbean waters. Small crafts should
exercise caution across much of the open waters and passages due
to 20 knots winds. Seas should range mainly between 3-5 feet
except across the Caribbean waters were it should range between
4-6 feet through Tuesday night. Seas expected to subside after
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 79 91 / 0 20 30 30
STT 80 90 79 88 / 10 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
502 AM AST Tue Jun 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level ridge to continue dominating over the
local area for the next few days but an upper low is expected to
pass through the local area this weekend, causing unstable upper
level conditions. Surface high pressure across the eastern
Atlantic will continue to promote east southeasterly winds for the
next few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tuesday through Thursday...
Mostly fair weather conditions are expected to prevail across the
region during the rest of the early morning hours with only a few
passing clouds and light showers possible mostly over parts of the
offshore coastal waters. Otherwise little or no precipitation is
expected to reach the islands, as skies are to become mostly sunny
by late morning. For the rest of the day local and diurnal effects
may give way to a few afternoon showers or streamer-like clouds and
showers over parts of the east interior and west-northwest sections
of Puerto Rico, but the activity if any should be of short duration.
The remainder of the islands can expect mostly sunny skies with
little or no rainfall as the mid to upper level ridge should hold
across the region for another day.

By Wednesday and Thursday expect upper ridge to erode as an upper
level trough will deepen and sink southward across the region while
entering the eastern Caribbean. In the meantime... Surface high
pressure centered across the northwest Atlantic will hold in place to
maintain moderate east to southeast trade winds across the region
though Wednesday. By Thursday however, winds are diminish and become
more easterly in response to an area of low pressure developing and
moving across the western Atlantic. That said, expected better
chance of early morning and afternoon showers across the parts of
the islands on Wednesday and Thursday. Most of which will be locally
and diurnally induced and should be focused over parts of the
central and west interior sections of Puerto Rico where isolated
thunderstorms will be possible.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday...
Near normal moisture is expected late this week into the weekend
before a line of drier air moves on Monday, quickly rebounding on
Tuesday and Wednesday. During this portion, a Surface high
pressure is expected to remain north of the local area, causing
east to east northeast winds and tightening the pressure gradient
slightly. Also, for this weekend, there may be an upper low
passing through the area, which could help in the development of
thunderstorms over the local area, stabilizing the upper levels on
Monday and then an upper trough to develop to the northeast of the
local islands for Tuesday and Wednesday. At this time, the shower
and thunderstorm activity in the long term may be decided on the
conditions of the upper levels, if the long range models verify
the forecast we could have some rain every day, especially this
weekend, improving conditions on Monday, then some rain thereafter
but maybe not as much as this weekend, if the long range models
are correct.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR durg entire prd at all terminals and en route btw
islands. Few -SHRA ovr coastal waters and btw islands...few passing
clds lyrs FL025...Fl050...and btw FL200-FL250... mostly SKC ovr land
areas til 06/14z.L/lvl Wnds fm ESE 5-15 kts blo FL150. Sfc wnd
LGT/VRB bcmg mainly fm E-SE 10-15 kts but slightly higher with sea
breeze variations and occasional gusts aft 06/14z. VCSH possible at
TJBQ and TJMZ aft 05/18Z. No sig operational wx impacts attm.

&&

.MARINE...Seas will be up to 6 feet today across portions of the
Offshore Caribbean waters and the Mona Passage. Also, winds up to
20 knots in the Atlantic waters and nearshore Caribbean. Therefore
the small craft operators should exercise caution. Moderate risk
of rip currents across many of our local beaches.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 90 79 / 20 20 20 10
STT 91 79 89 79 / 30 30 20 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
504 PM AST Tue Jun 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Ridge aloft will slowly erode as an upper level low
develops across the northeastern Caribbean during the next day or
so. Surface high pressure across the eastern Atlantic will
continue to promote east southeasterly winds for the next few
days. A weak tropical wave will move mainly south of the area on
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...Surface high pressure
spread across the eastern and central Atlantic will maintain an
east to southeasterly wind flow through the end of the work week.
Normal to above normal temperatures will continue...especially
across coastal areas. A weak tropical wave will move mainly south
of the area across the Caribbean Sea during on Wednesday. A small
surge in moisture is expected then across the islands through
Thursday. An upper low is forecast to develop from a trof
northeast of the area and meander just over and to the east of the
islands. Expect each afternoon an increase in shower activity and
isolated thunderstorm development over the northwestern quadrant
of Puerto Rico. Trade wind showers could move from time to time
across the USVI and eastern portions of PR during the overnight
hours.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday...Near normal moisture is
expected late this week into the weekend before a line of drier
air moves on Monday, quickly rebounding on Tuesday and Wednesday.
During this portion, a Surface high pressure is expected to remain
north of the local area, causing east to east northeast winds and
tightening the pressure gradient slightly. Also, for this
weekend, there may be an upper low passing through the area, which
could help in the development of thunderstorms over the local
area, stabilizing the upper levels on Monday and then an upper
trough to develop to the northeast of the local islands for
Tuesday and Wednesday. At this time, the shower and thunderstorm
activity in the long term may be decided on the conditions of the
upper levels, if the long range models verify the forecast we
could have some rain every day, especially this weekend, improving
conditions on Monday, then some rain thereafter but maybe not as
much as this weekend, if the long range models are correct.


&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected during the next 24 hours
across the local flying area with only few -SHRA over the coastal
waters. VCSH still possible at TJBQ and TJMZ this afternoon but not
significant operational weather impacts expected. Latest TJSJ
sounding indicated an east to east southeast wind flow up to 20
knots all the way from the surface to around 12k feet, becoming
light and variable between 12k-30k feet and then westerly and
stronger above 30k feet.


&&

.MARINE...Seas will continue between 4-6 feet across the Caribbean
waters and local passages as well as easterly winds between 15-20
knots. Therefore, small crafts should continue to exercise
caution. Seas between 3-5 feet are expected elsewhere with winds
between 10-15 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 79 91 / 20 20 10 20
STT 78 91 79 89 / 30 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
444 AM AST Wed Jun 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Ease to southeast winds are expected through the end
of the week due to a surface high pressure over the central
Atlantic. Another surface high will develop north of the local
islands on Sunday but still promoting mainly easterly winds. Low
pressure in the upper levels will develop over the local area
today and will meander over the local area for the next several
days, causing an increase in the local instability, increasing the
chances of thunderstorms over the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...Tutt low now sagging across
the region into the eastern Caribbean will linger just east of the
islands and over the northern Leewards during the rest of the work
week. Surface high pressure ridge spread across the Atlantic will
help maintain moderate easterlies across the region through at least
Thursday. It will then slightly weaken across the area by Friday, as
a low pressure system will enter the southwest Atlantic and continue
to develop while lifting northwards across the western Atlantic.

A weak tropical wave now crossing the Windward islands will move
mainly south of the region today through Thursday. However, sheared
fragments of low to mid level moisture along the northern periphery
and trailing the wave will continue to move westward across the
local waters and reach the islands. This will continue to bring a
few early morning passing showers to the coastal waters and parts of
the islands from time to time. Saharan dust particulates will
continue to diminish and exit the region today, leaving mostly sunny
skies. However, available moisture along with local and diurnal
effects will likely lead to some afternoon showers, with possibly a
isolated thunderstorms each day. Activity however should be of short
duration with no significant rainfall accumulations expected, as the
weak mid level ridge should hold in place, along with the location
of the upper trough which will not be conducive for significant
convective development.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday...
Patches of moisture and dry air will be affecting the local area
from time to time during the weekend and next week. The upper low
pressure is expected to still be meandering over the area through
at least next Wednesday. On Sunday, an area of deeper moisture
could be passing through the local islands which could cause an
increase in shower activity given that the upper low will help in
the development of showers and thunderstorms across the local
waters and over portions of PR, especially in areas of sea breeze
convergence. Dry air moves in on Monday but moisture returns on
Tuesday at near normal levels and then much deeper moisture is
expected on Thursday. Given that the upper low will be hanging
around and the wind flow will be mainly from the east the whole
time, the only feature that will be changing is the available
moisture, which then could be the determining factor on just how
much rain will fall and where once combined with local effects.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds durg prd with few passing -SHRA ovr the
regional waters and en route and btwn islands til 07/14z...SCT cld
lyrs nr FL022...FL040...and FEW tops nr FL120 ovr caribbean waters S
of PR. Recent TJSJ upper air sounding suggests east winds btw 10-20
kts blo FL200. Sfc wnd LGT/VRB...bcmg fm E-SE 10-20 kts aft 07/14z
except for local sea breeze variations and ocnly higher gusts along
coastal areas. Btw 07/17z-07/23z...Isold-SCT SHRA w/Psbl isold TSRA
mainly ovr ctrl MTN range and NW PR and Few -SHRA psbl downwind of
USVI.


&&

.MARINE...Seas will be up to 6 feet and winds up to 20 knots
across the coastal Atlantic waters, the Caribbean waters and Mona
Passage. Small craft operators are urged to exercise caution. Seas
up to 5 feet with winds up to 15 knots elsewhere. Rip current
risk will be moderate across many of our local beaches.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 79 / 20 10 20 10
STT 89 79 89 79 / 20 30 30 10

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
407 AM AST Thu Jun 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT low is still expected to meander over the local
islands through at least Monday. A ridge in the mid levels west
and over the local area will continue to slowly erode through
Friday. Surface high pressure will dominate the Atlantic for the
next several days, keeping the local islands under a prevailing
east southeasterly to easterly flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday... Meandering TUTT and slowly
weakening mid level ridge today through Friday will continue to
support moisture transport across the eastern Caribbean resulting in
periods of morning showers over the coastal waters, and mainly on
the windward side of the islands. The available moisture along with
local and diurnal effect will lead to showers and possibly isolated
thunderstorms mainly over parts of the central interior and west to
northwest sections of Puerto Rico each afternoon. Afternoon
convection over Puerto Rico is expected to be of short duration and
should diminish around sunset leaving partly cloudy to mostly clear
skies over land areas during the evening and overnight hours. The
remainder of the islands should experience mostly fair weather skies
pleasant weather conditions during the next few days, except for a
chance of isolated showers during the early morning and late
afternoon hours. The prevailing east to southeast low level winds
are forecast to become more east to northeast by Saturday allowing
for high temperature to remain in the near normal range.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday...
The TUTT low is expected to continue meandering over the local
islands until at least Monday, which should keep conditions
somewhat unsettled for those days. However, Sunday looks like it
could have showers and thunderstorms as a patch of moisture moves
in, while on Monday we expect drier air moving in, which would
limit the shower activity over the area. Thereafter, the TUTT
opens up and a broad trough in the upper levels remains for a few
days, lingering moisture remains on Tuesday but then near normal
amounts of moisture is forecast from Wednesday through Friday.
This setup for the mid to latter part of the week could give us
scattered showers through the day with more persistent showers and
possible thunderstorms over portions of PR where the local effects
combine with diurnal heating and available moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions will prevail across the local
flying area for the next 24 hours. However passing SHRA will
continue across the coastal waters and Vcty of all local islands at
least til 08/12z. Fm 08/17z-08/22z...Isold-Sct SHRA/Psbl with Isold
TSRA posbl ovr over central mtn range and NW PR affect mostly TJBQ
and TJMZ and VCTY. Recent TJSJ sounding suggests E-SE wind flow 15-
25 knots at FL200 and BLO.

&&

.MARINE...Seas will be generally 2 to 5 feet across the local
waters. Winds will be up to 15 knots across most of the waters but
up to 20 knots across the nearshore Atlantic waters, where small
craft operators are urged to exercise caution. There will be a
moderate risk of rip currents across many of our local beaches
today and through the weekend.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 78 / 30 10 20 30
STT 89 80 88 79 / 40 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
426 AM AST Fri Jun 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure will remain anchored across The central
atlantic through the upcoming weekend. This will therefore maintain
moderate trade winds across the local area. An tutt low and associated
mid level trough will linger across the northeastern Caribbean through
the weekend to maintain unstable conditions aloft. This should help
to enhance and ventilate any localized convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...
Upper level low will continue to dominate the local weather over
the next several days. This feature will meander over the Northeast
Caribbean inducing a surface trough between the Leeward Islands
and Puerto Rico. Both features will keep the weather conditions
somewhat unstable through the end of the week. A surge of mid
level energy will combine with the surface trough to enhance the
shower activity across the local islands from this afternoon
through Saturday morning. Heavy rain and thunderstorm activity
will be likely this afternoon over the northwest quadrant of
Puerto Rico. Then...another round of showers will likely affect
the USVI and eastern PR this evening into Saturday morning with
heavy rainfall at times.

The rest of the weekend...showers and a few thunderstorms will develop
once again over Northwest PR but the intensity should be slightly
less than this afternoon as mid level dynamics will be less favorable.
The next round of showers is forecast on Sunday morning as a moist
band approaches from the northeast.


.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday...
The tutt low is forecast to meander across the northeastern Caribbean
and forecast areas through Monday of next week. This will maintain
fairly unstable upper level conditions across the region and therefore
keep the local weather conditions unsettled especially during the
early morning and afternoon hours. By Tuesday and Wednesday, expect
drier and stable conditions as the upper low will lift northwards
and fill. High pressure ridge will then build and spread eastwards
across the forecast area from the west and southwest Atlantic.
Surface high pressure ridge north of the region will also weaken
Tuesday thru Wednesday, as an induced surface trough is forecast
to develop and move across the area. The next tropical wave is
forecast to enter and move across the eastern Caribbean late
Wednesday or Thursday. The combination of these two features
should bring an increase in tropical moisture and a somewhat
wetter pattern across the forecast area at least through saturday.
The expected scenario for the mid to latter part of next week
suggests increased chance for isolated to scattered showers each
day, with isolated thunderstorms possible over the coastal waters
and the interior and west portions of PR each day, where local
effects and diurnal heating along with the available moisture may
enhance afternoon convection.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are forecast for most of the TAF sites.
Scattered SHRA associated with a surface trough will continue to
affect the NE Caribbean. +SHRA and ISOLD TSRA expected between 18Z-
22Z near TJBQ and possibly TJMZ. This activity may lead to brief
MVFR/IFR at TJBQ. Depth layer easterly winds of 10-15 kt will
prevail below FL250.


&&

.MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions will continue to prevail across
the local waters with seas up to 5 feet and winds 15 knots or less.
Winds and seas will increase slightly during the upcoming weekend
and into early next week leading to choppy conditions across the
regional waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 79 / 40 40 30 50
STT 89 79 89 78 / 40 40 30 50

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
347 AM AST Sat Jun 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure will remain anchored across The central
Atlantic through the weekend. This will help maintain moderate easterly
trade winds across the local area. A tutt low and associated mid level
trough will linger across the northeastern Caribbean through the weekend
to maintain unstable conditions aloft. This feature along with local
and diurnal effects will help to enhance and ventilate any localized
daytime convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...Upper level low/TUTT over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will linger across the NE
Caribbean through early next week. This feature is inducing a
surface trough over the Lesser Antilles. Although...the induced
trough will remain east of the forecast area...the easterly trades
will continue to push scattered showers across the regional waters
from time to time.

For this afternoon...numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
will cluster over NW PR. Also the east-southeast flow will favor the
generation of streamers downwind of El Yunque and the small islands.
Therefore...scattered showers are also possible across portions of
the San Juan Metro Area this afternoon. A wind surge approaching
from the northeast will bring a round of scattered showers to the
Leeward Islands and PR/USVI on Sunday. Then...a drier and more
stable air mass will reach the region on Monday ahead of a developing
surface trough and the next Tropical Wave on Tuesday. All in all...the
upper low/TUTT will provide enough instability to induce the development
of shower and thunderstorms each afternoon over Western PR though at
least Monday.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday...
Expect drier and stable conditions Tuesday through Wednesday, as the
mid to upper level trough will lift northwards as high pressure ridge
builds and spread eastwards across the forecast area from the west
and southwest Atlantic. In the meantime, surface high pressure ridge
north of the region will gradually weaken Tuesday thru Friday, as a
surface trough develops and move across the area. A tropical wave is
also forecast to enter and move across the eastern Caribbean Wednesday
through Thursday, but is so far expected to move mainly south of the
region with model guidance also suggesting Saharan dust accompanying
this wave. Both of the previously features should however transport
sufficient tropical moisture across the area to support early morning
passing showers, followed by isolated to scattered afternoon convection
each day with isolated thunderstorms possible mainly over parts of
the interior and west sections of Puerto Rico. Local and diurnal effect
along with the available moisture should be the main driving force
for afternoon convection as no major feature is forecast to directly
affect the region at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are forecast for most of the TAF sites. SCT
SHRA en route from the Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico. SCT020 and
SCT050 will prevail across the flying area. +SHRA and ISOLD TSRA
expected once again near TJBQ between 18Z-22Z. This activity may
lead to brief MVFR/IFR. Depth layer easterly winds of 10-15 kt
will continue below FL150.

&&

.MARINE...Slightly choppy conditions can be expected over the local
Atlantic waters today with seas up to 5 feet and winds up to 20 knots.
Winds and seas will increase during the remainder of the weekend and
into early next week with seas expected to increase to up to 6 feet
due to the moderate to fresh winds driven seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 87 78 / 20 50 50 20
STT 89 78 89 78 / 20 50 50 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
404 AM AST Sun Jun 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure across the central and eastern
Atlantic will promote moderate east to northeast trade winds during
the next several days. A meandering Tutt low and associated mid level
trough will continue across the region to maintain unstable conditions
aloft through Monday. A tropical wave and associated moisture continued
to approach the Lesser Antilles and interact with the meandering Tutt.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...Upper level low/TUTT will
meander over the NE Caribbean through at least Monday night. This
feature is forecast to fill/dissipate on Tuesday. As a result...
weather conditions will remain somewhat unstable under the influence
of the TUTT. The potential for showers and thunderstorms remains high
as moisture levels remain near normal. The rest of the morning...
light to moderate rainfall will be possible across the windward side
of the local islands. Then...Heavy rainfall can be expected during
the afternoon hours over Western PR. Low level wind backed from the
ENE...favoring the development of the afternoon convection from
Utuado to Mayaguez/Cabo Rojo.

Although...the upper low/TUTT will gradually dissipate on Tuesday...
conditions will remain fairly unstable due to the arrival of a
tropical wave. The best moisture convergence associated with this
waves appears to be between 12Z-18Z on Tuesday. This will result in
another round of scattered showers across the NE Caribbean.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday...Expect overall dry and
stable conditions aloft on Wednesday, as the mid to upper level
trough lifts north of the area and high pressure ridge builds and
spread eastwards across the region. Surface high pressure ridge
will gradually weaken thru Friday, as a low level trough develops
and extends across the area. Moisture trailing the previously mentioned
tropical wave is forecast to affect the eastern Caribbean through
Wednesday.Model guidance continued to suggest a mild concentration
of Saharan dust trailing this wave. The presence of the aforementioned
trough should allow sufficient moisture convergence across the the
area to support passing early morning showers, followed by isolated
to scattered afternoon convection each day. Isolated thunderstorms
will remain possible but mainly over parts of the interior and
west sections of Puerto Rico. Local and diurnal effects along with
the available moisture should be the main driving force for
afternoon convection as model guidance continued to suggest no
major feature to affect the region through Saturday. By late
Sunday or Monday a deepening Tutt, and a tropical wave is forecast
to develop and approach the Lesser Antilles.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are forecast for most of the TAF sites. SHRA
between SCT030-SCT060 will continue to move westward across the
flying area the rest of the morning. +SHRA and ISOLD TSRA expected
near TJMZ between 18Z-22Z. This activity may lead to brief MVFR/IFR.
Easterly winds of 10-20 kt will prevail below FL150.

&&

.MARINE...Choppy marine conditions will continue to prevail
across the local waters through early next week with seas up
to 6 feet and winds 15-20 knots. Small boat operators should
exercise caution.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 89 78 / 30 20 20 20
STT 89 77 89 79 / 30 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
458 PM AST Sun Jun 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure across the central and eastern
Atlantic will promote moderate east to northeast trade winds during
the next several days. A meandering Tutt low and associated mid level
trough will continue across the region to maintain unstable conditions
aloft through Monday. A tropical wave and associated moisture continued
to approach the Lesser Antilles and interact with the meandering Tutt.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Partly cloudy skies prevailed across Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands this afternoon. Some passing showers
affected the eastern section of Puerto Rico, with the heaviest
activity affecting the areas near El Yunque rainforest. Winds
were mainly from the east today at around 10 to 15 mph with higher
gusts. An upper level trough continued over the area this
afternoon, however, low level moisture was not as good as previous
days and the surface winds were stronger. As a result, shower and
thunderstorms development was minimal.

For Monday and Tuesday, A slot of drier air will encompass the
region from the east. Therefore, limit shower activity is expected
across the local area except for some shower development across
the western interior and southwest sections of Puerto rico both
days.

A tropical wave and associated moisture continued to approach the
Lesser Antilles late this afternoon and will continue to move west
and will pass mainly south of the area by Monday. This wave has
limited shower and thunderstorm activity with it, therefore no
significant impacts are expected across the region with this
system.

.LONG TERM...A series of tropical waves are forecast by computer
models to move across the region during the work week, with
periods of cloudiness and showers affecting the region.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds should continue for most of the TAF sites.
+SHRA and ISOLD TSRA expected to develop near TJMZ between 18Z-22Z.
This activity may lead to brief MVFR/IFR conditions. Easterly winds
of 10-20 kt will prevail below FL150. Mostly VFR conditions expected
aft 23z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 20 knots are expected
across the local waters. Small Craft should exercise caution
across most coastal waters.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 88 / 20 20 20 20
STT 77 89 79 88 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
417 AM AST Mon Jun 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure across the central and eastern
Atlantic will promote moderate east to northeast trade winds during
the next several days. A weak tropical wave is expected to move
across the region on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...Upper level low/TUTT over
the NE Caribbean will gradually dissipate/fill through midweek.
Weather conditions are expected to remain somewhat unstable under
the influence of the TUTT. However...the overall moisture across
region will continue below normal through tonight. As a result...the
shower activity will be similar to yesterday...with some showers
developing over Mayaguez and Vicinity and a few cloud lines forming
downwind of El Yunque. Mid-level temperatures are warm...therefore
thunderstorms if any will be isolated over Western PR.

A weak tropical wave is forecast to move across the local area on
Tuesday. This will result in another round of scattered showers
across the NE Caribbean. After the wave...a drier and more stable
air mass with some Saharan Dust will reach the local region limiting
the shower activity on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM... Thursday through Tuesday...Expect overall dry and
stable conditions aloft on Thursday, as the mid to upper level
trough lifts north of the area and high pressure ridge builds and
spread eastwards across the region. Local and diurnal effects
along with the available moisture should be the main driving force
for afternoon convection as model guidance continued to suggest
no major feature to affect the region through Saturday. By late
Monday or Tuesday of next week, a deepening TUTT, and a tropical
wave is forecast to develop and approach the Lesser Antilles.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are forecast for most of the TAF sites. .
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA posible near TJMZ between 18Z-22Z. This activity may
lead to brief MVFR. Easterly winds of 10-20 kt will prevail below
FL150.


&&

.MARINE...Choppy marine conditions will continue to prevail
across the local waters through late rhis afternoon with seas up
to 6 feet and winds 15-20 knots. Small boat operators should
exercise caution.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 90 79 / 30 20 20 20
STT 89 80 89 80 / 30 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
438 PM AST Mon Jun 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A tropical wave will pass mainly south of the local
area Tuesday. A surface high pressure will continue to produce an
easterly trade winds across the region through much of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Areas of showers moved across the local islands late this
morning but rainfall accumulation were minimal. Early this
afternoon, scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms developed
across the San Juan metropolitan area, affecting mainly the
municipalities of San Juan, northern Guaynabo and Catano. Rainfall
accumulation were between one half to one inch in some areas. This
activity was associated with the combination of low level moisture
with daytime heating and orographic lifting. This activity is
expected to dissipate near sunset.

A tropical wave is expected to pass mainly south of the local area
Tuesday, enhancing the shower and thunderstorm activity across the
region. A drier airmass is expected to encompass the region
begins the wave on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...A series of tropical waves are forecast by computer
models to move across the region during the work week, with
periods of cloudiness and showers affecting the region. One wave
is forecast to approach the local region by next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA across western PR should end
around sunset. Mainly VFR elsewhere through the overnight hours.
Low level winds will continue E-ESE at 10-20 kts. However, light and
variable winds are expected overnight at the surface.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 5 feet and winds up to 15 knots are expected
to prevail across the local waters through at least mid week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 90 79 91 / 20 20 20 30
STT 80 89 80 89 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
404 AM AST Tue Jun 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level trough over the northeast Caribbean is
expected to drift northward while filling today. Weak tropical
wave across the central Caribbean will move westward with little
effects over the the local islands. Weak surface high pressure
across the central Atlantic will continue to promote a moderate
easterly trade wind flow across the local islands for the next
several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...
Small patches of moisture embedded in the easterly trades moved
westward across the surrounding waters overnight and early this
morning, but not precipitation was detected over land areas. Weak
upper level trough over the northeast Caribbean is expected to
drift northward while dissipate/fill today and tonight. A weak
tropical wave across the central Caribbean just south of
Hispaniola is expected to move westward away from the
region...with little effects, if any, over the local islands. PW
values will remain near or below normal during the next couple of
days. Therefore the overall moisture across the region will
continue below normal through at least Wednesday. As a
result...limited shower activity is expected across the region
with locally induced activity across western and interior sections
of Puerto Rico each afternoon.

A tropical wave along 50 west this morning is expected to reach
the eastern Caribbean late Wednesday and then passing mostly
south of the region on Thursday. This feature is expected to
produce an increase in moisture across the northeast Caribbean.
After the passage of the wave...a drier and more stable air mass
with some Saharan Dust will reach the local region limiting the
shower activity.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday...
Expect overall dry and stable conditions aloft from Friday
through Sunday...as the mid to upper level trough lifts north of
the area and high pressure ridge builds and spread eastwards
across the region. Local and diurnal effects along with the
available moisture should be the main driving force for afternoon
convection as model guidance continued to suggest no major feature
to affect the region through Sunday.

By late Sunday or Monday of next week, a deepening TUTT, and a
tropical wave is forecast to develop and approach the Lesser The
local region. These features will increase the showers and
thunderstorms coverage across the local islands.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected to prevail across the
local flying area with only VCSH possible across the Leewards
Islands, USVI and TJSJ taf sites during the morning hours.
Easterly winds at 10 knots early in the morning, will increase to
15 knots after 13/12z. TSRA/SHRA expected in and around TJMZ/TJBQ
after 13/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...Choppy marine conditions will continue to prevail
across the some of the local waters through late this afternoon
with seas up to 6 feet and winds 15-20 knots. Small boat operators
should exercise caution. There is a high risk current for the
northwest to northeast beaches of Puerto Rico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 90 79 / 30 20 20 20
STT 89 80 89 80 / 30 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

issued 510 PM AST Tue Jun 13 2017/

SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure across the western Atlantic will
continue to dominates the local region through the end of the work
week. A tropical wave will approach the local region late
Wednesday into Thursday passing mainly south of the local region.

SHORT TERM...Once again, showers with thunderstorms developed
this afternoon mainly across the western interior and northwest
sections of Puerto Rico. Very heavy rainfall was observed over San
Sebastian, Moca and Anasco were rainfall amounts were between two
to three inches in some areas. Better low level moisture than
yesterday, combined with strong daytime heating to produce
scattered to numerous showers with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms across these sections of Puerto Rico. Most activity
was dissipating around 5 pm AST.

For the rest of tonight into Wednesday, partly cloudy skies with
only some passing showers are expected across the area. A tropical
wave currently approaching the Lesser Antilles will continue to
move west and will pass mainly south of the region Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. No significant weather is associated with
this wave at this time.

LONG TERM...From Friday through next week, a drier air mass is
expected to move across the region during the weekend. However,
convection is expected to develop each afternoon across the
western interior and northwest sections of Puerto Rico. Global
models indicated a Tropical Wave will approach the region next
Monday, increasing the chances for showers and thunderstorms
across the region.

AVIATION...VFR conds should continue for most of the TAF sites.
+SHRA and ISOLD TSRA expected to develop near TJBQ and TJMZ between
through 22Z. This activity may lead to brief MVFR/IFR conditions.
Easterly winds of 10-20 kt will prevail through 23z decreasing to 10
kts or below after that. Mostly VFR conditions expected aft 23z. SFC
winds should increase again to 10 to 15 kts with higher gusts
after 14/13z.

MARINE...Seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 20 north are expected
across the coastal waters. Small Craft should exercise caution
across most coastal waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 78 90 / 20 30 30 30
STT 80 88 79 89 / 20 20 20 30