2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[RL3AO]

Can't trust any of these global models beyond a few days with how well they've been doing over the past month or so. It's a wait and see situation at this point.

I think this is a situation to have a little (emphasis on 'a little') more confidence. A pattern which supports TC genesis in the SW Caribbean or far eastern Pacific seems more likely than not to happen next week. When a model shows an easterly wave developing in 10 days in July, then it's worth staying skeptical. In this situation, I'm actually quite intrigued to watch the next two weeks and how it evolves.

[Alyono]

Can't trust any of these global models beyond a few days with how well they've been doing over the past month or so. It's a wait and see situation at this point.

you can trust them with a large scale synoptic setup.

What is fairly confident is that there will be flooding for Central America from this October-like monsoonal gyre

[cycloneye]

This is not long range (Only 72 hours)

[TheStormExpert]

This is not long range (Only 72 hours)

http://i.imgur.com/Pgu0nQj.png

Is it a TC at that point?

A TD.

[srainhoutx]

This is not long range (Only 72 hours)

Is it a TC at that point?

It is a monsoonal gyre with multiple spurious areas of lower pressure in and near the SW Caribbean and the EPAC as well as inland across Central America. One observation I am seeing is a rather robust MJO pulse settling across the Eastern Pacific and the Western Caribbean. These spurious lows tend to be extremely slow to organize where ever they do and can be prolific rain makers.

[RL3AO]

It is a monsoonal gyre with multiple spurious areas of lower pressure in and near the SW Caribbean and the EPAC as well as inland across Central America. One observation I am seeing is a rather robust MJO pulse settling across the Eastern Pacific and the Western Caribbean. These spurious lows tend to be extremely slow to organize where ever they do and can be prolific rain makers.

I think it's more a strong Kelvin wave than the MJO.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro goes with development in the East Pacific side in 9 days, while the 12z GFS goes with development in the Western Caribbean just at or beyond day 10.

Who will win this round?

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro goes with development in the East Pacific side in 9 days, while the 12z GFS goes with development in the Western Caribbean just at or beyond day 10.

Who will win this round?

They basically traded places. A couple of days ago, GFS was showing EPAC development and the Euro had BOC/GOM development.

[gatorcane]

Both the GFS and Euro develop an area of vorticity north of Panama and send it West to WNW over Central America with the Euro a bit more of a southerly track. The vorticity ends up in the Gulf of Tehauntepec with the Euro showing more robust development since the track ends up over water.

Note the E movement of the Euro's depicted storm at the end of the run which suggests to me that low is part of a bigger developing monsoon gyre which stretches into the Western Caribbean. The GFS starts some development on the Caribbean side right around hour 240-252 just beyond the Euro's timeframe. The CMC has development on the Caribbean side for the past two runs near the 9-10 day timeframe while sending the Panama vorticity into the BoC with development.

[cycloneye]

Complicated scenarios with the Monsoon trough gyre.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/872544483472273408

[gatorcane]

GFS starting to bring in the timeframe, 10 day below east of Belize:

[Alyono]

looking more like we will see some development out of this. Will start as major flooding for CA, but then we may see a large TS in the Gulf

[Cpv17]

looking more like we will see some development out of this. Will start as major flooding for CA, but then we may see a large TS in the Gulf

I agree. The CMC has it too. Will be interesting to see what the Euro shows next.

[Kingarabian]

Euro has EPAC development through 144hrs.

[Alyono]

EPAC development only means more flooding for Central America

This whole thing is getting pulled north

[Kingarabian]

EPAC development only means more flooding for Central America

This whole thing is getting pulled north

It has that system the GFS had moving into the GOM @ 192hrs, but more in the EPAC side.

[Kingarabian]

This is a classic WWB phenomenon, where duo development is observed.

[Alyono]

EC has the monsoon trough lifting north at 240 hours. Main difference between it and the MU is that the EC still has it over land then

[cycloneye]

Well away from the monsoon trough in Central America 00z ECMWF has this.

[Kingarabian]

Well away from the monsoon trough in Central America 00z ECMWF has this.

Pretty well defined vort for a 1010mb low.