2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Kingarabian]

GFS continues to have a GOM system.

EPS members continue their shift south and having EPAC development.

[TheStormExpert]

Well the GFS has been too persistent to ignore along with gradually bringing in the timeframe. Not sure what to make of the Euro.

[tarheelprogrammer]

IMHO the GFS has begun a shift toward the Pacific with the system the last run.

[RL3AO]

It's probably gonna come down to where the monsoon trough sets up (how far north does it get), where convection focuses and tries to lower pressures, and which part of the trough does the low try to develop on. Gonna be an interesting one to watch.

Can't wait for the usual "GFS sucks" posts when it basically calls development 12 days out but was 200 miles too far east...

[Alyono]

IMHO the GFS has begun a shift toward the Pacific with the system the last run.

it's the strongest it has ever been in the Gulf this run

[TheStormExpert]

IMHO the GFS has begun a shift toward the Pacific with the system the last run.

it's the strongest it has ever been in the Gulf this run

It looks as if it starts closer to the Yucatán peninsula and heads toward the Texas coastline verses the central northern Gulf Coast like in the previous several runs.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

GFS ensembles suggest a lower MSLP average across the Yucatan by Day 10.

[tarheelprogrammer]

IMHO the GFS has begun a shift toward the Pacific with the system the last run.

it's the strongest it has ever been in the Gulf this run

True, but it shifted west some in the G.O.M while the ECMWF shifted west as well. Just my opinion, and likely to be wrong. We will see soon how wrong I am lol

[LarryWx]

This, of course, might be real. However, the GFS may very well be showing a fake Caribbean/Gulf storm over and over, especially considering how far out it still is in forecast time. The GFS is notorious for showing fake W Caribbean geneses even after having many runs in a row with a forecasted storm without time slippage. Don't let the GFS' persistence fool you into thinking this must be real. I'm going with "it may be real but it could easily be another one of its fakes". Climo, especially in oncoming El Niño years (we may or may not be in an oncoming El Niño year), favors this area for genesis in mid June. This is about the only time of the season that has increased genesis potential in association with an oncoming El Niño.

[cycloneye]

The wave in MDR up to 40%?

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/872862698106703872

[Kingarabian]

Euro in line with the GFS @ 240 hrs. Though weaker.

[weatherwindow]

The wave in MDR up to 40%?

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/872862698106703872

Very interesting, Luis...although obviously this may be premature...12z euro is depicting a 1010 Mb low/tropical depression
roughly 40° west at 240 hours ....I also noted that the 12zGPS is now developing two systems in the same general vicinity at somewhat lower latitude and a somewhat later time frame than the euro....at 360 hours per GPS is moving 1008 Mb depression through the Windward Islands and also noting 1000 mbar tropical storm at 40° ... while unlikely from a climatological point of view we may be looking at decidedly more favorable conditions in the eastern Atlantic......Rich

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS has the Yucatán system again and continues to bring in the timeframe. Moves north into the Gulf.

[tarheelprogrammer]

18Z GFS has the Yucatán system again and continues to bring in the timeframe. Moves NW into the Gulf.

Weaker this run I think due to shear, which would make sense.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS has the Yucatán system again and continues to bring in the timeframe. Moves north into the Gulf.

https://s11.postimg.org/iuwfkd58j/gfs_m ... atl_41.png

Shear not an issue looking at this run with a huge anticyclone overtop, looks to be a large system though given climo would expect some shear to be present. Thinking this may not be a phantom storm.

[gatorcane]

Oh and looks like the GFS has a strengthening storm in the MDR approaching the Lesser Antilles in long range but looks like the same wave the ECMWF is developing.

[TheStormExpert]

Oh and looks like the GFS has a strengthening storm in the MDR approaching the Lesser Antilles in long range but looks like the same wave the ECMWF is developing.

It has a borderline hurricane in the NE Caribbean Sea in 16 days.

[gatorcane]

yep pretty unbelievable given climo. As folks have mentioned could be an indicator of favorable MDR conditions this year which is what I have been thinking we would see.

[cycloneye]

The entretainment run ends like this.

[AutoPenalti]

The entretainment run ends like this.

wot in tarnation..

If that verifies, we might say hello to Bret. That looks like a mid range category 1.