Texas Summer 2017

[JDawg512]

Currently getting a good downpour! Makes me dance and sing.

[weatherdude1108]

Currently getting a good downpour! Makes me dance and sing.

Oh my gosh! I stopped by HEB on way home from work at Parmer and Mcneil before it hit. The sky opened up by time I was done. People waiting inside by entrance. I ran out to car with bag of groceries. Umbrella was whipping in the fierce gusts, and my jeans got soaked!lol. Windy, blinding rain and lots of lightning bolts around me. Traffic light blinking at Mcneil and Parmer.
Got a little scary for a bit.

Got about half inch at house. That makes 2.75 inches since last Sunday.

[Brent]

I'm going to NYC Friday through next Wednesday and the GFS and GFS para have warmer temps there than in Dallas at least a couple days early next week

[Cpv17]

Looks like the return of boring weather will be back for the foreseeable future

[bubba hotep]

Looks like the return of boring weather will be back for the foreseeable future

Yea, if you live south of I20 and west of I35 then things look pretty lame for the next two weeks. For DFW, outside of a couple of low chance events this week, things look to turn more active in about a week as we head into mid month.

[JDawg512]

Well I'll be going into a light hibernation during this boring stretch. Hopefully won't be a prolonged sleep as I tend to get grumpy the longer it is before rain falls.

[Cpv17]

I'm a bit jealous of Florida at the moment. My goodness are they in for a lot of rain.

[weatherdude1108]

Well I'll be going into a light hibernation during this boring stretch. Hopefully won't be a prolonged sleep as I tend to get grumpy the longer it is before rain falls.

I'm with you. The maps from the CPC changed from yesterday. Yesterday we were on the border of near normal and above normal. Today, we are below normal precip for most of Texas for at least the next two weeks, if not longer, with the exception of the DFW area and points northeast at slightly above normal in the rain department, perhaps.

I was walking outside after lunch noticing the stiff north breezes, starting to dry it out. I know it rained yesterday, and over the last week or so, and molds are very high at over 14,000 according to news, but I'm already missing the rain. Time to go hibernate in the house/office.

At least our lakes are full and in good shape heading into Summer!

[hriverajr]

If the models are correct looks like an extended period of high pressure over Mexico extending into Texas at times... Looks mostly dry and hot except for some occasional storms in the N/NW flow aloft... This happens around summer.. sometimes comes earlier.. sometimes later (this year)

[Ntxw]

Yeah looks mostly boring. Low 90s for June isn't too bad though (low to mid for southern part of the state, upper 90s along the RGV).

Today back in 1980 was the first 100F or greater at DFW it what would begin as one of the most notorious heat waves in DFW history. It peaked at 113 for two days late in the month in what would be the area's hottest days on record. 2011 may have stronger duration (lows made the average higher) but 1980 in terms of raw heat numbers wins. 105+ was a fairly common occurance from June to August. Luckily nothing like that in sight.

[gboudx]

I've wondered how much worse 1980 would've been if the area had as much concrete then, as it does now.

[Ntxw]

I've wondered how much worse 1980 would've been if the area had as much concrete then, as it does now.

Lows would've been much warmer like in 2011. Not sure highs would be too much different as those heat waves are on much larger scale rather than small area like DFW relative to the ridge. 1980 wasn't in as strong a drought as 2011, if we had that kind of ridge coupled with that kind of drought is really bad. 1980 was a wide scale heat dome, 2011 was often more a localized heat due to extreme drought runaway feedback.

[Tireman4]

I've wondered how much worse 1980 would've been if the area had as much concrete then, as it does now.

Lows would've been much warmer like in 2011. Not sure highs would be too much different as those heat waves are on much larger scale rather than small area like DFW relative to the ridge. 1980 wasn't in as strong a drought as 2011, if we had that kind of ridge coupled with that kind of drought is really bad. 1980 was a wide scale heat dome, 2011 was often more a localized heat due to extreme drought runaway feedback.

I thought you promised not to bring the Summer of Hell back up. Ughh

[Cpv17]

To me the only thing worth talking about now is the tropics. Something could be brewing down there in another week or two from now.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Looks like possibly a decent chance at a little more rain up this way tomorrow evening into Friday. Chances aren't all that great though. Hopefully this season of being sweaty from morning until night will come and go quickly so we can get back to the most important season, winter.

[weatherdude1108]

When I first saw this, I thought it was a misprint given it is Summer. Then I noticed it was at 850mb.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 081528
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1028 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017

.UPDATE...
As the surface low located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
continues to nudge east over the Florida Peninsula, an area of
surface high pressure will continue to filter in from the north.
This should raise heights slightly today and into Friday. Up at
850mb, temperatures for this afternoon are expected to reach into
the mid to upper teens. With daytime mixing, this should allow
high temperatures to warm slightly above normal for this time of
year, reaching into the low nineties across SE TX. Therefore, only
changes to the forecast was to bump up high temperatures today a
little above model guidance, as observed high temperatures
yesterday also exceeded model guidance. Galveston specifically
will be flirting with its record temperature set in 2008 of 91
degrees today, as the forecasted high is 90 degrees. Otherwise,
forecast appears to be on track.

Hathaway

[Ntxw]

Sonoran heat ridge showing up long range..will bake the west and southwest. Initial pattern would bring NW flow and maybe below normal for a bit. Lets hope that ridge stays west, should it progress east then we will likely see our first summer heat wave. Long range caveats apply.

[weatherdude1108]

Sonoran heat ridge showing up long range..will bake the west and southwest. Initial pattern would bring NW flow and maybe below normal for a bit. Lets hope that ridge stays west, should it progress east then we will likely see our first summer heat wave. Long range caveats apply.

Where is the "Dislike This" button?

[weatherdude1108]

EWX hinting at a large upper low and associated front digging south across the southern planes, beyond the extended range. Not sure what they are hinting at, but I'm sure it will change, as climatology is less in our favor for storminess as we head closer to the Summer Solstice.

Had this caveat been written a month ago, it would be more of an eye-opener IMO. But as usual, there can always be a rogue storm that drops 3 inches of rain if you're in that lucky spot. Been there done that with the rogue storm, which always leaves me with optimism, even with those less than 10% rain chance forecasts.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 081946
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
246 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Northwest flow continues aloft in the atmosphere with high pressure
centered to the west of Texas. High resolution models still do show
an isolated shower or two making it into the Hill Country or far
Western Val Verde County late this afternoon and evening. A few
showers and storms could also be possible along the Coastal Plains
like the development we are currently seeing in Gonzales county.
Coverage of this activity should be fairly sparse and it should
weaken by late evening.

Friday will see another round of possible showers and storms within
the northwest flow. Tomorrows chances could be slightly better as the
NAM and GFS show a weak shortwave/vorticity max diving south across
Texas. This could act to enhance chances of precipitation during the
day on Friday, especially across the Hill Country, where there will
be modest CAPE and plentiful moisture (forecast PWAT values around
1.7 inches) for the storms to feed off of.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
The shear axis becomes a weak low pressure area that will sit near
the Texas/Louisiana border through the weekend as the ridge to the
west inches closer to South Central Texas. This will result in a
mostly dry and sunny weekend with highs around seasonal normals. An
isolated storms is not out of the question Sunday afternoon, but
chance remain slim.

Monday and Tuesday this low pressure works down the Texas Coast and
will enhance the southerly flow at the surface. This will not only
act to continue to bring in moisture to the area, but will aid in
shower and thunderstorm development along the sea breeze. Both days
will see the possibility of showers and storms focused mainly along
and east of I-35 with a stray storm possible across the Hill Country.

By Wednesday high pressure begins to expand decreasing rain chances
and beginning to turn up the heat for South Central Texas. A slow
warm up begins Wednesday through the end of the week into the mid
90s. With moisture levels still high, high heat index values may
become an issue for the second half of next week.

Just beyond the forecast period the GFS and the ECMWF both advertise
a large upper low diving south across the Southern Plains with an
associated front. There are a few days difference in timing between
the two long range models with the ECMWF weaker with the trough, but
faster with the timing. Current GFS runs are slower but stronger with
the trough.

[Kalrany]

Awwww. Come on. It's already too hot..