2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[RL3AO]

If we're getting invests in the MDR, much less strong tropical storms by the end of June, then that could be a huge sign for the season.

[tarheelprogrammer]

18Z GFS has the Yucatán system again and continues to bring in the timeframe. Moves north into the Gulf.

https://s11.postimg.org/iuwfkd58j/gfs_m ... atl_41.png

Shear not an issue looking at this run with a huge anticyclone overtop, looks to be a large system though given climo would expect some shear to be present. Thinking this may not be a phantom storm.

https://s10.postimg.org/jm09yb1zt/gfs_shear_watl_42.png

Yeah it is a mixture of factors it looks like.

[TheStormExpert]

The entretainment run ends like this.

http://i.imgur.com/EMX29sF.png

wot in tarnation..

If that verifies, we might say hello to Bret. That looks like a mid range category 1.

Would be Cindy if the Western Caribbean/Gulf storm verifies.

[Hurricaneman]

The entretainment run ends like this.

http://i.imgur.com/EMX29sF.png

wot in tarnation..

If that verifies, we might say hello to Bret. That looks like a mid range category 1.

Would be Cindy if the Western Caribbean/Gulf storm verifies.

This would be unbelievable but I wouldn't be surprised if we get a tropical storm in the MDR and GOM based on the models and that will most likely mean a nasty MDR if things don't settle down

[Kingarabian]

Its pretty interesting to note that in the past two runs from the EPS, none of its members have that MDR system.

In regards to the GOM, the members are split. So pretty good 50/50 chances for development there I would say.

[floridasun78]

you think that models are right? or not getting right that show system in gulf and one out in Atlantic

[tarheelprogrammer]

Think the end of this month could see the MDR get active. The ITCZ looks incredible.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

GFS ensembles are also slowly starting to hint at GOMEX development.

[Steve]

Lol at 00z GFS and the western hook of a possible strong hurricane hooking left into Padre Island. I think it's continuing working its solution west and later. Throw away solutions at this point IMHO. 5 day has been off all year. Betting on the 10 or 15 day runs are a death wish at this point. I wouldn't bet against something coming out of the Caribbean early this year, but this isn't going to be right.

[tailgater]

This 00z run is a little spooky for the GOMers even in fantasy land.

[USTropics]

If you take everything into account, it's certainly an area to focus on for the next two weeks. NCEP and ECMWF ensembles show reasonable chances for development in the long range:




GFS Ensembles:


The CMC and NAVGEM (for what it's worth) are also forecasting low pressure in the Caribbean:



Climatology also shows this is a favorable area for development in June:


While the operational ECMWF is still showing most of the vorticity draping Central America, the most recent run has shown lowering heights in the GOM, which may allow the monsoonal gyre to lift more northward:

[USTropics]

The models have also been hinting at some potential vorticity shooting off the EC around 140hrs, with the ECMWF the most aggressive of the models:

[gatorcane]

00Z Euro showing lowering pressures over the NW Caribbean / Yucatán area in the long-range:

[ronjon]

Consensus building from GFS, CMC, and ECM for some large gyre emanating from the western Caribbean gradually pulled north to a position just north of the Yuc peninsula in 10 days.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Very good agreement between the ECMWF and the GFS that some sort of monsoonal low may attempt to develop by day 10 near the Yucatan:

06z GFS:


00z ECMWF

[WeatherEmperor]

12z GFS at 240hrs:



12z Canadian at 240hrs:




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[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF delay.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/873236115515428865

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF delay.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/873236115515428865

12z ECMWF run is working now.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/873252985148776449

[gatorcane]

How the 12Z Euro ends day 10. Low pressure over Yucatán and a curious low traversing the MDR between the Lesser Antilles and Africa at a low latitude: