2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF has MDR lighting up again with a wave with weak low pressure.

[tolakram]

Here's the animation. Is the Euro crazy?

[Kingarabian]

It'll be interesting to see if the EPS finally picks up on it.

In regards to the GOM, the 12z Euro is well in line with the GFS.

Still also shows Calvin in the EPAC as well.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I have to admit that I'm impressed that the 12z ECMWF is starting to show a possible low in the MDR by day 9 and 10. To see hints of development out there this early in the year is pretty impressive.

[weathaguyry]

I agree, I think that the last tropical system in the MDR in June was TD2 in 2003, other than that, were there any other June MDR systems?

[Alyono]

I agree, I think that the last tropical system in the MDR in June was TD2 in 2003, other than that, were there any other June MDR systems?

MDR really extends to the western Caribbean south of 20N. The definition only including east of the islands makes no sense as that does not cover a majority of formations

Using the more appropriate definition of MDR, our last MDR June storm was Barry in 2013. We also had Arlene, Arthur (May), Alex. Except for 2013, those were very active seasons

[latitude_20]

Hopefully our Yucatan jungle will be getting a much-needed drink soon. It's been way too dry this year.

[gatorcane]

Does the GFS think it is mid August instead of mid June?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Does the GFS think it is mid August?

Lol it has to be a bad run. It looks to try to develop every wave past the 120 hr mark. It has the system near the Yucatan forming into two storms I think. Then merging together to hit LA.

[Kingarabian]

It's interesting to note that none of the EPS have any MDR systems, as in not even a low anomaly, and only one member shows a 1006mb low in the Eastern Caribbean at day 15.

[floridasun78]

i think we see some thing in gulf but out east of Caribbean too early think earliest was start july was shot live system

[floridasun78]

i look last gfs run it kill area east of islands on this run as get closer to islands http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 60918&fh=6

[gatorcane]

The GFS ensembles consensus and GFS parallel take the Yucatán area more west into the BOC. This seems like a very real possibility too as models show an expanding Bermuda High ridge and ridge over the southern US building in the long-range. The GFS parallel has a quickly deepening system before it moves into Belize. So while something may develop around the Yucatán, it's possible it never makes it far enough north in the Gulf to impact the Gulf coast.

[psyclone]

that would be a reasonable course for this time of year too. recall hurricane Alex (V. 2010) took a similar route in late June.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro has a stronger ridge through 144 hours, so the disturbance gets pushed west into the EPAC and Dora forms. Weakens the ridge @ 168hrs and moves Dora NNE into central America.

[South Texas Storms]

00z Euro has a stronger ridge through 144 hours, so the disturbance gets pushed west into the EPAC and Dora forms. Weakens the ridge @ 168hrs and moves Dora NNE into central America.

And then it lifts northward into the southwestern Gulf at the end of the run.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro has a stronger ridge through 144 hours, so the disturbance gets pushed west into the EPAC and Dora forms. Weakens the ridge @ 168hrs and moves Dora NNE into central America.

And then it lifts northward into the southwestern Gulf at the end of the run.

Yup.

[South Texas Storms]

00z Euro has a stronger ridge through 144 hours, so the disturbance gets pushed west into the EPAC and Dora forms. Weakens the ridge @ 168hrs and moves Dora NNE into central America.

And then it lifts northward into the southwestern Gulf at the end of the run.

Yup.

http://i.imgur.com/ry322XL.png

Yeah the Euro is kinda showing a similar track to TS Hermine from 2010...develops in the EPAC and then lifts northward into the Bay of Campeche with development there as well.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Hermine_(2010)

[Cpv17]

Well the areas along the western gulf coast are a favored spot for landfalls around June.

[Kingarabian]

And then it lifts northward into the southwestern Gulf at the end of the run.

Yup.

http://i.imgur.com/ry322XL.png

Yeah the Euro is kinda showing a similar track to TS Hermine from 2010...develops in the EPAC and then lifts northward into the Bay of Campeche with development there as well.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Hermine_(2010)

Good find. Hermine 2010 correlates nicely with what the Euro is showing track wise but in this case I think it'll be stronger as it crosses CA. So it potentially could end up stronger in the GOM compared to Hermine.