Texas Summer 2017

[Ntxw]

Surprise! Panhandle complex held.together, raining at DFW this morning

[Yukon Cornelius]

Pretty nice bunch of thunderstorms came through last night/early this morning. Picked up almost 1.5''. Just West of me picked up around 3". Looks like they are on their way to the metroplex, if they aren't already there.

[srainhoutx]

Friday morning briefing from Jeff:

NW flow aloft this morning with a thunderstorms complex approaching from N TX.

Radar showing leading edge of isolated to scattered thunderstorms associated with a decaying thunderstorm complex over NC TX nearing our NW counties. General air mass over SE TX appears stable, but with heating today and approach of vortex associated with the N TX complex would not rule out an isolated thunderstorm.

Vortex actually grows into an upper level low over SE TX on Saturday which will begin another wet period for the area…although shorter in duration than the last one. Moisture will still be lacking on Saturday, so not expecting much coverage of thunderstorms. Additionally the position of the upper level low is overhead or just east of SE TX which is usually the subsident side of the system. Upper ridge over the Midwest into the NE US early next week will begin to push or retrograde the upper level low or shear axis westward across SE TX Sunday-Tuesday. Position of this feature will allow moisture to return from the Gulf of Mexico with PWS rising to near 2.0 inches by late Sunday. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday along the seabreeze and more widespread activity on Monday.

Upper level shear axis will progress into SW TX by next Tuesday, but moisture will linger and expect activity along the seabreeze likely each day next week. Upper ridge appears to never really gain a good hold over the region and this may become important later next week into the 3rd week of June.

Tropics:
Focus continues to be in the longer range period from roughly the 18th of June onward with now several global forecast models including the GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NOGAPS, and many of their ensemble members developing a large monsoon circulation over the western Caribbean Sea/central America after the 19th. It will be important where this feature actually forms, if at all, as to what chances of development it may have. One important factor that continues to show up in the 500mb height fields is a general weakness over the NC Gulf of Mexico and trough axis across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. As mentioned above upper level ridging never really builds across the US Gulf coast over the next 2 weeks which may leave the door open for any possible tropical development to migrate northward. In fact the latest ensemble clustering has shifted northward away from central America and into the SE/S Gulf of Mexico over the last few runs with a general average position of a very large low pressure system somewhere near/N of the Yucatan between the 18th and 23rd of June. This is all still way out in model la la land…but the increasing consistency is something to watch.

[Ntxw]

0.64" of glorious rainfall recorded at the airport this morning. Areas along I-35 in Dallas and Denton counties radar estimates over 1". This is definitely going to curtail highs today to the lower and mid 80s if that. HRRR and GFS suggest clouds won't clear out until afternoon if it does. Heaviest QPF overnight was around the Wichita Falls area with 1-3" posted by Yukon Cornelus

[bubba hotep]

0.64" of glorious rainfall recorded at the airport this morning. Areas along I-35 in Dallas and Denton counties radar estimates over 1". This is definitely going to curtail highs today to the lower and mid 80s if that. HRRR and GFS suggest clouds won't clear out until afternoon if it does. Heaviest QPF overnight was around the Wichita Falls area with 1-3" posted by Yukon Cornelus

Recent runs of the HRRR keep rain and storms going across DFW basically all day. That would be awesome lol

[weatherdude1108]

Happy for you north Texas folks! Try to bring some of that liquid gold this way, please!

[Ntxw]

Happy for you north Texas folks! Try to bring some of that liquid gold this way, please!

It was a surprise this morning but the complex did survive, maybe you guys can get some this afternoon or evening! HRRR hints at it for you

DFW now up to 0.73" which alone today is more than it got all of May (0.70")

[TheProfessor]

I'm happy I didn't come home to 95-100 degrees temps like it can be in June.

[Rgv20]

Fairly uninteresting weather for the Rio Grande Valley for the next 7 days....Lows in the upper 70s and highs in the upper 90. Long range GFS&ECMWF are hinting at a possible low forming in the Western Caribbean around day 9-10...will see if future model runs hold on to this solution.

[Ntxw]

A pleasant 81F today here today.

End of Euro run has the ridge of death out west, we are still in NW flow for the time being



Long range though. Next week a heat wave will grip the northern and northeastern US. Parts of Wisconsin to NYC will be as warm or warmer than Dallas and Houston! Low 90s for us is near normal for them it's HOT

[weatherdude1108]

Isolated showers and storms popping around the area. Maybe we'll get lucky(?).

[weatherdude1108]

Isolated showers and storms popping around the area. Maybe we'll get lucky(?).

Update:
No luck.

[Cpv17]

Time to keep an eye on the tropics. All of the reliable models are showing something in the Gulf or BOC in about a week from now.

[JDawg512]

Would be nice if we get a plum of moisture from whatever happens in the gulf. I'm starting to prepare for a prolonged period of below average rain for the rest of the summer. The second wettest month on average is looking a lot like how May ended up.

[South Texas Storms]

Long range models are indicating we will see near to above normal precipitation this summer. I'm not giving up hope yet.

The western Gulf looks active in most of the long range guidance...so I think we have an above normal chance of seeing a tropical system strike TX this year. We'll see.

[weatherdude1108]

Hopefully we'll get some sea breeze or NW flow aloft action in the form of showers/storms.

Way too dry and breezy now. Feels gross outside taking a walk around work.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
249 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday)...

No major highlights in the short term weather-wise but the there
will a slight up-tick in sea-breeze activity tomorrow along and east
of I-35. Near normal temperatures are expected.

Per water vapor satellite channels and RAP analysis - a weak
trough/shear axis remains over the northwest Gulf of Mexico to the
upper Texas coast while a much stronger shortwave trough is located
over the western CONUS. Since south-central Texas is on the backside
of the weak trough in the Gulf and with weak ridging across the Rio
Grande Basin into Mexico, suppression of showers activity is
occurring. There is also a stout capping inversion over most of the
area, further adding confidence of limited to no rain chances today
for the coastal plains. Have decreased rain chances through the
afternoon with only very limited sea-breeze activity expected to make
into far eastern coastal plains. Greater coverage today will remain
east of the region towards TX/LA.

Overnight, expect low stratus clouds to return to the Hill Country and
into the Escarpment area. Farther south and east, patchy ground fog
will again be possible where the clouds do not fill in as much. This
has been the case the past few days. PWATs will increase from near
1.2" today to near 1.5" on average along and east of US Highway 281.
The added moisture for eastern areas plus indications of a weaker
capping inversion suggest Tuesday may be the best day for sea-breeze
showers and a few thunderstorms to occur. Expect scattered coverage
across the coastal plains with more isolated coverage towards I-35 as
it moves inland in the afternoon. Western areas will remain dry due
to mid-level ridging influence. Showers and thunderstorms could drop
a quick quarter to half inch but will likely not remain over one
spot too long.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...

Drier and warming conditions expected mid- to late-week with above
normal temperatures expected. Heat indices will reach into the
100-105F range most areas (expect Hill County) through the week. A
pattern shift will occur late week and persist through the weekend
that could introduce additional rain and thunderstorm chances.

Models are in good agreement that low- and mid-level ridging will
build over south Texas Wednesday and partially into Thursday. This
should temper sea-breeze activity back down along with a slightly
stronger advertised capping inversion. By Thursday afternoon
however, mid-level H5 flow will switch from zonal to more of a NW
flow pattern while low-level (H85-H7) ridging attempts to hold on.
With this pattern shift and weaker capping to the north near the Red
River, will need to monitor for thunderstorm potential across far
north Texas and if it can ride the NW flow towards the region late
Thursday into Friday morning. While the probability appears low
currently, this pattern could support such convective evolution. By
Friday, stronger north to northwest flow will occur in the mid- and
upper-levels with steepening lapse rates. The passage of an upper
level trough looks to occur Friday afternoon. While there appears to
be a capping inversion potentially helping to prevent convection
Friday, the building CAPE and flow aloft could support showers and
storms if they were to break through the cap. Some storms could
become strong/severe if they break the cap or it weakens. Have only
placed a 20% chance of showers for now and will need to watch the
strength of the capping inversion.

By the weekend, the H5 ridging will be center north and west of south
Texas placing the area under a weak low-level inverted trough
pattern in easterly flow. This could enhance sea-breeze and
afternoon diurnal showers and thunderstorm activity, especially along
and east of I-35. Greater chances of rain will be for the south half
of the region closer to the inverted low convergence with slightly
greater ridging influence across the north half.

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose:

Over the past week, our weather pattern made the transition from spring into summer. A strengthening ridge of high pressure over the southwestern US and northern Mexico pushed the Westerlies north, causing the early June rainy pattern to come to an end and enabling temperatures to heat up. Very summer-like weather conditions will be in place this week and this weekend as high pressure persists over the region.

Monday's weather maps showed a broad, stable ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere stretching from northern Mexico to the northeastern US, causing a mostly dry and warm pattern across Texas. A small area of low pressure was located underneath the ridge over Southeast Texas, pulling moisture inland, mainly to the east of Interstate 45. A small amount of this moisture extended west to around the Colorado River. As temperatures warm this afternoon, a few spotty rain showers can be expected across the coastal plains region, extending north to around La Grange and Brenham. The probability for rain will only be 20 percent and totals should average well below a quarter inch. Across the rest of the region, today's weather will be mostly sunny and warm with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s. Expect a light southeast wind at 5-10 mph.

On Tuesday, moisture from the low pressure system is forecast to spread west to the Interstate 35 corridor. This is expected to cause the development of a few spotty rain showers across Central Texas. The probability for rain will only be near 20 percent. A slightly better coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms is expected along the middle Texas coast where the probability for rain will be near 30 percent. Rainfall, if any, should total well under a quarter inch. Otherwise, Tuesday's weather will be mostly sunny and continued warm, with high temperatures in the low to mid-90s. Expect a south wind at 10-15 mph.

The low pressure system is forecast to sink south into Gulf of Mexico Wednesday, causing moisture levels to decrease across Central Texas. A slight chance for rain showers will continue across the coastal plains region, but most other locations should be dry. Wednesday's weather will be mostly sunny and warm with high temperatures again in the low to middle 90s.

Mostly sunny, dry and warm weather is forecast Thursday through Saturday as the ridge of high pressure strengthens over our region. Daily high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid-90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and in the low 90s towards the coast.

A slight chance for spotty rain showers is forecast across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast Sunday through next Tuesday as another weak wave of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to track southwest along the middle Texas coast. The chance for rain is forecast to be near 20 percent and rain amounts, if any, should total less than a quarter inch. High temperatures are forecast to hold mostly in the middle 90s.

The outlook beyond next Tuesday is highly uncertain due to possible development of some sort of tropical disturbance or tropical system in the central Gulf of Mexico. For the past few days, the forecast model solutions have called for the development of an area of low pressure across the western Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Some of today's forecast solutions call for this low pressure system to track northwest in the direction of the Texas coast around the middle of next week. Should that be the case, I would expect increasing clouds and a chance for rain late next week. But I want to stress there are many, many uncertainties involving the potential development and track of this low pressure system this far out. However, it is something that will have to be watched closely over the next few days.

No extremes in the temperature pattern are forecast over the next 10 days.

Weather conditions are currently quiet across the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. There are no systems which pose a threat for tropical development over the next 5 days.

In the eastern tropical Pacific, tropical depression Three-E remains nearly stationary near the southern coast of Mexico.

As of early Monday afternoon, the depression was centered about 75 miles east-southeast of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph. The depression is nearly stationary, but a slow west-northwestward motion is expected to resume later today. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone will be near or over the coast of Mexico tonight or early Tuesday. The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and Guerrero, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches.

Moisture from the depression is forecast to stay well to the south of Texas.

Bob

https://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-we ... ather.aspx

[Ntxw]

Looks like the dull typical summer weather kicks in this week. Mid 90s and lows in 70s, turning up the gear..will have to see if a trough can clip but its getting harder for fronts to make it. Withholding any ideas on the gulf, as we seldom see relief from that way past several years so we'll see what happens there. I'd like to see something stream up from the EPAC rather

Did I mention summer is the worst season ever? Winter can't be here soon enough

[Tireman4]

Looks like the dull typical summer weather kicks in this week. Mid 90s and lows in 70s, turning up the gear..will have to see if a trough can clip but its getting harder for fronts to make it. Withholding any ideas on the gulf, as we seldom see relief from that way past several years so we'll see what happens there. I'd like to see something stream up from the EPAC rather

Did I mention summer is the worst season ever? Winter can't be here soon enough

Amen sir!

[bubba hotep]

Long range models are indicating we will see near to above normal precipitation this summer. I'm not giving up hope yet.

The western Gulf looks active in most of the long range guidance...so I think we have an above normal chance of seeing a tropical system strike TX this year. We'll see.

Looks like another 10 days to two weeks before significant rain chances return to Texas. Of course, a tropical system coming out of the Gulf next week could change that but I'm not putting any stock into that solution. Analogs seem to be split, with some like '09 being warm and others like '14 being "cooler" but I'll take a warmer summer if we can get an '09/10 winter!