Strong Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands (Is INVEST 92L)

[tarheelprogrammer]

GEFS ensemble members are even more bullish at 18z today. A good bit of them are at tropical storm strength in the Lesser Antilles.

[cycloneye]

Not bad looking.

[floridasun78]

i think too early but was early july maybe i seen few form in that time

[weathaguyry]

GEFS ensemble members are even more bullish at 18z today. A good bit of them are at tropical storm strength in the Lesser Antilles.

I think that would be an indicator of a big MDR season, because I don't even know if there has ever been a TS east of the Lesser Antilles in June in recorded history!

[Hammy]

GEFS ensemble members are even more bullish at 18z today. A good bit of them are at tropical storm strength in the Lesser Antilles.

I think that would be an indicator of a big MDR season, because I don't even know if there has ever been a TS east of the Lesser Antilles in June in recorded history!

It's occurred but only twice that I know of--1933 and 1979.

[KatDaddy]

It does look good coming off the African Coast and will be interesting to see how it translates across the MDR and into the Caribbean.

[WeatherHoon]

That's a big boy. Very impressive. If it were August, I'd imagine it wouldn't have much trouble developing.

[abajan]

That's a big boy. Very impressive. If it were August, I'd imagine it wouldn't have much trouble developing.

True. One thing that won't be an inhibiting factor is SSTs. It's plenty hot enough out there!

[cycloneye]

Weak low added to wave on 00z surface analysis.

[cycloneye]

Stronger at 00z GFS.

[Kingarabian]

Hell of a low rider on this wave per the 00z GFS:



GFS kills it in the eastern Caribbean @ hr 174.

[Hammy]

Certainly an odd map in mid-June.

[AJC3]

Code: Select all

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A strong tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms well south of
the Cabo Verde Islands.  Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur over the next several days while the
wave moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the low-latitude tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Hurricaneman]

Could be an invest soon if organization continues

[AutoPenalti]

Could be an invest soon if organization continues

Looks healthy. No dry air really inhibiting development. No SAL.

[northjaxpro]

This is very impressive to see such an organized and very large wave for this early in the season. As pointed out astutely above by others, there are no crippling factors at the moment to keep this feature from developing. NHC already has this wave at 20% for development within 5 days. I think we will see the percentage increase as time progresses.

I think if the current trends persist with the organization, I think we possibly will have an invest designated within the NBA ext 48 hours.

[cycloneye]

For June standards,this wave is mighty impressive.If trend of organization continues,Invest status could be up later today.

[Kazmit]

If this develops, especially if it does before it reaches the islands, it could be a sign for an active MDR season, as some of us are predicting. And for only mid-June, it looks very healthy.

[RL3AO]

I'm blown away this morning at the water vapor images near Africa. Wheres the dry air? Wheres the browns and oranges on this image? Wow.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS paralell is more agressive than operational.