Possible development in Western Caribbean - (Is INVEST 93L)

[Stormcenter]

That is the key, I believe these models are assuming this will develop and get picked up by the trough.

I'm not buying the eastern solution, as I don't believe that development will occur just south of Cuba. I expect a larger low developing over the northern Yucatan that won't get picked up by the east coast trof. West track into northern Mexico (slow west track). Not ruling out a FL threat yet, but I think it's less likely.

[NDG]

12z Euro is holding to its solution of slightly stronger ridging across the gulf coast than what the GFS and CMC show.

[Alyono]

surprised you havn't noticed that the MU/CMC/NAVGEM are a developing different system than the EC/UKMET

EC/UKMET are developing the monsoon trough while the others are developing the wave near 70W

[Steve]

That is the key, I believe these models are assuming this will develop and get picked up by the trough.

I'm not buying the eastern solution, as I don't believe that development will occur just south of Cuba. I expect a larger low developing over the northern Yucatan that won't get picked up by the east coast trof. West track into northern Mexico (slow west track). Not ruling out a FL threat yet, but I think it's less likely.

It's also a timing issue. CMC has landfall Tuesday night around dusk. That's much faster than a slow march or propagation out into the Gulf and then westward. However, I still think that it's entirely possible that either a multi-vortex situation occurs with a low level center approaching Florida while possibly rotating around the low or maybe a piece of energy coming up and having its own circulation beyond the base area. You can see that pretty clearly on the GFS Upper Dynamics run and Pressure Anomaly runs. Obviously only time will tell. FWIW, NAM 32km Res has this still down around the Yucatan and organizing in 84 hours.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro is inline with the Euro Parallel, further south though, and looks like a central Mexico landfall.

12z Euro down to 998mb @ hr 168 and just off the Mexican coastline.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro is into south Texas (near Brownsville) at 996mb in 192 hours.

[Alyono]

how strong is euro parallel

[Kingarabian]

how strong is euro parallel

00z Euro Parallel lowest was 1001mb. I posted its run details in the previous page.

12z Euro Parallel comes out in around 6 hours.

[Dylan]

how strong is euro parallel

Not nearly as strong. A bit to the right of the OP-ECMWF, and dumps a lot of rain on the North-central Gulf Coast region.

[Stormcenter]

We are talking about two totally different solutions here from two of the major models. I'm curious to see which one the NHC leans toward more.
I would probably think the GFS. IMO

[Dylan]

The ECMWF is still trying to sort thru what is going to happen with the 500mb pattern after day 5 with some noticible inconsistancies. Particularly with the ridging in the SE US, and how the incoming trough in a week interacts with it. Timing is going to determine whether this goes into MX, or further north into Texas.

[Kingarabian]

We are talking about two totally different solutions here from two of the major models. I'm curious to see which one the NHC leans toward more.
I would probably think the GFS. IMO

Still some time for them to come in line.

[Florida1118]

We are talking about two totally different solutions here from two of the major models. I'm curious to see which one the NHC leans toward more.
I would probably think the GFS. IMO

Considering the Euro has a better track record historically, and the fact their 5 day outlook is towards the western gulf (I know this is just where genesis will occur, but it's area is a bit telling), I'd have to disagree with that.

[gatorcane]

Seems the ECMWF/UKMET usually win these battles with the GFS/NAVGEM/CMC (but not always). We'll see the outcome this time. Would be a good win for the GFS if it gets this right.

[Dylan]

This is going to be a very large system with half of the Gulf experiencing TS force winds. While making landfall in Brownsville, places as far as Morgan City, LA will see TS force winds, per the 12z ECMWF!

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro makes landfall just south of Texas, but then moves it NNW into Texas 6hrs later.

Lowest pressure is 996mb, with max wind speed @ 40kts. 40kts is too low in my opinion when you consider the wind speed/pressure relationship scale.

[Alyono]

12z Euro makes landfall just south of Texas, but then moves it NNW into Texas 6hrs later.

Lowest pressure is 996mb, with max wind speed @ 40kts. 40kts is too low in my opinion when you consider the wind speed/pressure relationship scale.

should be adjusted up to 45-50kts using proper conversion factors

[tropicwatch]

Currently I am not sold on any solution until we have a low that the models can latch on to. It does appear that there is some rotation in the area northeast of Honduras. Could be nothing.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=17&lon=-85&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=10

[South Texas Storms]

The majority of the 12z Euro Ensemble members are in the west Gulf. There are a few members that take it to the northern Gulf, however only about 10-15% of the members do that.

[ROCK]

Need a few more days but just by going climo here we all expect high pressure to dominate the GOM in JUNE! Just sayin..