Strong Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands (Is INVEST 92L)

[Hurricaneman]

:uarrow: That would be quite the small storm should it develop--could it be why the Euro isn't showing anything?

The Euro has always seemed to do poorly with smaller systems

[weathaguyry]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is
located well south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some slight
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while the wave moves westward near 20 mph over the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

They took off the "Development if any will be slow to occur" words.

[abajan]

:uarrow: They took off the "Development if any will be slow to occur" words.

Interesting observation. Did the same forecaster write the earlier TWO?
EDIT: Never mind. I just checked. They were different forecasters.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: They took off the "Development if any will be slow to occur" words.

Interesting observation. Did the same forecaster write the earlier TWO?
EDIT: Never mind. I just checked. They were different forecasters.

No.at 2 PM was Pasch.

[floridasun78]

i notice that storms have die bit look like Kelvin wave affect have die down a bit i think it smil chance becoming ts as move close to islands because shear if was not shear affect could be good tropical storm because of very warm water

[ouragans]

1. An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is
located well south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while the wave moves westward near 20 mph over the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS - Para has a below 1000mb strong storm over Trinidad and Tobago.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/875284876538388480

[Kingarabian]

Still no support from the ECMWF models.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible
during the next few days while the wave moves westward near 20 mph
over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W/29W from 11N
southward, moving westward 20 knots. A 1012 mb low pressure center
is along the wave near 05N. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 10N southward between 20W and 34W.

[TheStormExpert]

Track-wise Tropical Storm Earl(2004) is likely the best analog for this potential short-lived TC.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Earl_(2004)

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this system should be slow
to occur during the next few days while the wave moves westward near
20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
212 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands extends from 10N30W to a 1012 mb low
pressure located near 06N30W to 02N30W. This wave is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms, covering the area from
04N to 09N between 28W and 32W. Development, if any, of this
system should be slow to occur during the next few days while the
wave moves westward near 20 kt over the tropical Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS Para still has this as a Tropical Storm entering the Eastern Caribbean.

[Dougiefresh]

What are the affects of two tropical waves so close together? Does the one with more convection and thus more divergence aloft cause a sheering effect on the weaker wave and inhibit development?

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this system should be slow
to occur during the next few days while the wave moves westward near
20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
742 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands extends from 10N30W to a 1012 mb low
pressure located near 06N30W to 00N30W. This wave is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms from 03N-08N between 30W-
34W. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur
during the next few days while the wave moves westward near 20 kt
over the tropical Atlantic.

[abajan]

What are the affects of two tropical waves so close together? Does the one with more convection and thus more divergence aloft cause a sheering effect on the weaker wave and inhibit development?

It's a good question. Not sure, but I think that's correct.