Possible development in Western Caribbean - (Is INVEST 93L)

[Ptarmigan]

Yeah I took some time off..didn't kick the bucket yet! )

Welcome back! I think we will have Bret by next week.

[Alyono]

0Z guidance coming in quite a bit weaker. UKMET text output no longer has a TC. CMC a LOT weaker as well.

[chaser1]

0Z guidance coming in quite a bit weaker. UKMET text output no longer has a TC. CMC a LOT weaker as well.

To be fair, I'd say trending "A little weaker" is not unreasonable.
GFS - 3 mb difference (weaker)
GFS PARA - 1 mb difference (weaker)
Nav - 5 mb difference (weaker)
CMC - "could be 50mb difference either way" SO?
UK - drops system altogether (IS relevant)
EURO ??? Awaiting 0 Z data

Most solutions still suggesting a more Northward motion.

[Hammy]

Looking highly unlikely (as it's looked from the start) that anything is going to develop out of this--Euro is back to elongated trough scenario, and much further south so far. Seems like the ITCZ gyre that's going to take hold over Mexico is going to stretch this out too much.

[Alyono]

EC off its rocker. It's now developing an EPAC system at the expense of the Gulf. Slowly washes out the Gulf while the EPAC storm intensifies moving eastward

[Kingarabian]

EC off its rocker. It's now developing an EPAC system at the expense of the Gulf. Slowly washes out the Gulf while the EPAC storm intensifies moving eastward

EPS and the Euro Parallel had been hinting on something forming in the EPAC side.

[Kingarabian]

Looking highly unlikely (as it's looked from the start) that anything is going to develop out of this--Euro is back to elongated trough scenario, and much further south so far. Seems like the ITCZ gyre that's going to take hold over Mexico is going to stretch this out too much.

When you deal with the monsoon trough activity this close to the Pacific, Climo really favors something forming in the BOC/WGOM or in the EPAC.

[Alyono]

Looking highly unlikely (as it's looked from the start) that anything is going to develop out of this--Euro is back to elongated trough scenario, and much further south so far. Seems like the ITCZ gyre that's going to take hold over Mexico is going to stretch this out too much.

You tend to downplay everything a bit too much. Development is still more likely than not here

[La Breeze]

As of now ( I know that things will and do change), what could SW Louisiana expect out of this and when?

[Kingarabian]

Noticeable shift towards the EPAC from the EPS @ 00z. But it's still 5-7 days out. A lot can change in a week.

[ouragans]

2. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan peninsula this
weekend. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual development
of this system while it moves slowly northwestward toward the
southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

.

[ronjon]

I think development chances are decreasing. Many models are showing a split in the energy with a portion moving off to the N-NE and the rest moving off to the west into the BOC. I think the chances of either of these areas developing are diminished because of this.

[cycloneye]

Up to 60%.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan peninsula during the
next day or two. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual
development of this system while it moves slowly northwestward
into the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[tolakram]

Don't forget the mid-range issues the euro has shown in the last few years.

[weathaguyry]

The NHC has access to other tools and models that we either don't have access to, or have to pay for. So maybe they are seeing something that we're not, and that's why they increased their chances. Just a guess though.

[RL3AO]

The NHC has access to other tools and models that we either don't have access to, or have to pay for. So maybe they are seeing something that we're not, and that's why they increased their chances. Just a guess though.

Yesterday this probably had an 80% chance to form in the next week. Maybe now I'd put it around 70%. The percentage is going up because we are mostly within the 5-day window in which it will form.

It was at 40% yesterday because there was a good chance it would form on day 6 or 7. Yesterdays day 6 is now day 5 which means the percentages go up.

[weathaguyry]

06z GFS Para has 994mb Strong TS into FL Panhandle

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2017061606/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_watl_18.png

[srainhoutx]

The NHC has access to other tools and models that we either don't have access to, or have to pay for. So maybe they are seeing something that we're not, and that's why they increased their chances. Just a guess though.

Yesterday this probably had an 80% chance to form in the next week. Maybe now I'd put it around 70%. The percentage is going up because we are mostly within the 5-day window in which it will form.

It was at 40% yesterday because there was a good chance it would form on day 6 or 7. Yesterdays day 6 is now day 5 which means the percentages go up.

The overnight Ensemble TC Genesis Probabilities increased to near 100% near Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula over the next 120 hours. The Probabilities also increased to 70%/80% near the Gulf of Tehuantepec suggesting the very broad nature of this monsoonal gyre.

[RL3AO]

The overnight Ensemble TC Genesis Probabilities increased to near 100% near Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula over the next 120 hours. The Probabilities also increased to 70%/80% near the Gulf of Tehuantepec suggesting the very broad nature of this monsoonal gyre.

I was being conservative due to the "OMG THE MODELS ARE WEAKER. NOTHING WILL FORM. ITS 2013 AGAIN" type posts.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight Ensemble TC Genesis Probabilities increased to near 100% near Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula over the next 120 hours. The Probabilities also increased to 70%/80% near the Gulf of Tehuantepec suggesting the very broad nature of this monsoonal gyre.

I was being conservative due to the "OMG THE MODELS ARE WEAKER. NOTHING WILL FORM. ITS 2013 AGAIN" type posts.

Now no one would ever say such a thing around here, would they...
Keep an eye on the shear axis or Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough expected to meander West across the Central and Western Gulf this weekend into early next week. That feature along with the very broad nature of the monsoonal gyre will give the models fits. Hopefully we will get an INVEST up over the next 24 to 48 hours. Typically the NHC slowly increases the chances for development prior to declaring an INVEST. Beven is at the desk today. Jack is an excellent Tropical Forecaster.