ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

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Gustywind
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#161 Postby Gustywind » Sat Jun 17, 2017 9:35 pm

Pressure continues to fall down now with1008 hpa while the previous TWD mentionned pressure at 1012 hpa!

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
806 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic associated with a 1008
mb low centered near 06N41W.
Its axis extends from 11N41W to the
low to 00N41W, moving west at 15-20 kt within the last 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear and is embedded in
a moderate moist environment at the lower levels according to
CIRA LPW imagery.
However, Saharan dry air is entering to its
environment, thus limiting the convection to scattered moderate
from 05N to 08N between 40W and 45W. This convection is being
supported by upper-level diffluence. This wave has a medium
chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next two days.
Please see the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#162 Postby Dougiefresh » Sat Jun 17, 2017 9:44 pm

Gustywind wrote:Pressure continues to fall down now with1008 hpa while the previous TWD mentionned pressure at 1012 hpa!

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
806 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic associated with a 1008
mb low centered near 06N41W.
Its axis extends from 11N41W to the
low to 00N41W, moving west at 15-20 kt within the last 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear and is embedded in
a moderate moist environment at the lower levels according to
CIRA LPW imagery.
However, Saharan dry air is entering to its
environment, thus limiting the convection to scattered moderate
from 05N to 08N between 40W and 45W. This convection is being
supported by upper-level diffluence. This wave has a medium
chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next two days.
Please see the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.


If it can mix out that dry air for the time being, it will move into an area where there is no sahara dust and maybe then we will see a little development once sheer remains low.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#163 Postby NDG » Sat Jun 17, 2017 9:54 pm

cycloneye wrote:00z Best Track.

As of 00:00 UTC Jun 18, 2017:

Location: 5.8°N 43.0°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM


Personally I think that it is a little further N & W based on the latest ASCAT.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#164 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 17, 2017 9:58 pm

:uarrow: Oh,it missed the half of circulation.Hopefully the next pass captures all of it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#165 Postby Hammy » Sat Jun 17, 2017 10:45 pm

Is this gaining latitude at all at the moment? It looks like it's going to run into S America in about 12 hours or so.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#166 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat Jun 17, 2017 11:22 pm

Models are coming in weaker tonight for this. It may of missed its chance? :?:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#167 Postby Bocadude85 » Sat Jun 17, 2017 11:31 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#168 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Jun 17, 2017 11:33 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:Models are coming in weaker tonight for this. It may of missed its chance? :?:

Weaker? It seems the same to be honest. Maybe a millibar or two higher or lower, but relatively the same.

Although it does look a bit ragged.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#169 Postby ROCK » Sat Jun 17, 2017 11:41 pm

Lest no forget the ECarib in June no less is a TC destroyer. Probably why we see weaker runs coming in tonight. Hate to keep mentioning Climo but at some point it has to be mentioned. Just saying..the good doc Masters seems to agree...:)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#170 Postby Hammy » Sun Jun 18, 2017 12:23 am

Best chance of development was probably yesterday and last night, as the shear appears that it's increasing now. NHC down to 50% as well and if anything it just looks like typical ITCZ convection over the last several hours--nothing about the appearance says development, which is probably unlikely at this point.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#171 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 18, 2017 2:31 am

:uarrow: SHIPS has low shear for another 36-48 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#172 Postby abajan » Sun Jun 18, 2017 4:32 am

Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: SHIPS has low shear for another 36-48 hours.

I have little confidence in the SHIPS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#173 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 18, 2017 5:37 am

06z GFS operational has it more strong well inside the Caribbean Sea.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#174 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Jun 18, 2017 6:55 am

Odds up to 50/50
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#175 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 18, 2017 6:55 am

8 AM TWO: 50%-50%

Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a tropical wave located about 1000 miles
east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands. Some development
of this system is possible during the next couple of days before
environmental conditions become less favorable for tropical cyclone
formation. This system is forecast to move to the west-northwest at
near 20 mph toward the Windward Islands and northeastern South
America during the next two days, and interests in these areas
should monitor its progress. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Monday, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#176 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 18, 2017 7:56 am

12z Best Track:

As of 12:00 UTC Jun 18, 2017:

Location: 6.3°N 47.2°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#177 Postby Gustywind » Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:18 am

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
725 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A tropical wave is along 45W/46W from 11N southward. The wave is
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A 1007 mb low pressure is along
the tropical wave near 06N.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 04N to 10N between 43W and 50W.
The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next
two days is medium. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more
details.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#178 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:29 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#179 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:41 am

RL3AO,is turning like a broken record this question.Will tonight be the one 92L finnally shines?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#180 Postby RL3AO » Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:42 am

cycloneye wrote:RL3AO,is turning like a broken record this question.Will tonight be the one 92L finnally shines?


I'm losing some hope with this one. Maybe it can prove me wrong.
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