ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AtlanticWind]

Stronger vorticity thru 48 hours

[stormhunter7]

Through 72hrs.. nw turn towards Texas northern coast

[Alyono]

significant north shift and a significantly stronger storm

[shah83]

72 hours is pretty interesting. Severe rain threat?

[AtlanticWind]

significant north shift and a significantly stronger storm

Big changes,euro and gfs coming into better agreement

[stormhunter7]

I would think it would go more north on next image as trough pulls away? 96hr

Stronger system tends to go more poleward.. 1000mb at 72hr?

[Alyono]

I would think it would go more north on next image as trough pulls away? 96hr

Stronger system tends to go more poleward.. 1000mb at 72hr?

ridge builds back in, forcing it due westward

[AtlanticWind]

Turns west to texas

[stormhunter7]

Nope. Due west at 96hr into southern Texas. Weakening

[stormhunter7]

Clearly two camps tonight.... past seasons sayes Euro handles the ATL ridge better and west solution is more likely with a weak system. GFS is right solution, and barrels into NW Florida. CMC shifted west to LA. Until we have a true center, I believe models will continue this spilt options?

[AtlanticWind]

Seems like the speed of system makes for the different solutions, GFS is quicker bringing system north I think

[bamajammer4eva]

Looks like most are converging towards a consensus with Euro trending to the right and Canadian trending to the Left. Meanwhile GFS/GFS-para is caught daydreaming out the window. Maybe an Upper Tx Coast/Louisiana impact area in the end??

[AtlanticWind]

HWRF close to hurricane strength into new orleans

[bamajammer4eva]

NHC outlooks over past 24 hours shows that they are perhaps narrowing it down just a bit to the Upper Tx/La coasts.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Looking stronger on the run in all quadrants cane.

[bamajammer4eva]

While the rest of the models converge on a TX/La impact GFS ensembles close in on the N Central Gulf Coast. This is a trend of the past 24 hours of GFS runs for early afternoon Wednesday.

[abajan]

... Funny too that this very well could be Cindy assuming Invest 92L becomes Bret.

Oddly enough, if 92L were to become Bret (which now seems unlikely) it would also affect the same general location as Bret of '93. That Bret resulted in disastrous flooding and mudslides (mostly due to deforestation, I think) in Venezuela. The name really should've been retired, but I guess Venezuela didn't request that it be.

[bamajammer4eva]

48 hour trend (shift) of Euro Ensemble Mean for 00z June 21. Neither GFS nor Euro is exactly right.

[GCANE]

Those hot-towers at dusk may have done the trick.

Impressive looking WV with off-the-scale rain rate.

Mid troposphere is obviously heating quickly in the convection, aka warm core developing.

[GCANE]

Classic looking wind field from IR analysis