ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 3999
Age: 61
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: Ballston Spa, New York
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#201 Postby AJC3 » Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:26 am

weathaguyry wrote:In the last couple of frames, could that be something trying to curl up in the center of the convection? If so, it will be very interesting to see what recon finds later today, fingers crossed that they do go out!!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/93L/flash-vis-long.html


While that is indeed a vortex, it's a MCV embedded within the mid/high cloud canopy, and most likely not coincident with any surface circulation. It's more likely that it's displaced to the east of the wave axis and whatever broad surface low center there is out there.
4 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11161
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#202 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:40 am

12Z GFS seems to be holding firm so far
0 likes   
Michael

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#203 Postby Steve » Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:41 am

They haven't been but EC has been demonstrably better in the 5 day most of this year. It's still not been anything remotely great. GFS out to 30 hours and is intensifying around a point roughly intersecting Pensacola and Brownsville on a N-NNW heading. Front is sweeping down at that point.
Last edited by Steve on Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#204 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:42 am

There seems to be a consensus that slower = west, faster = east?
1 likes   

caneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1447
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2014 5:44 am
Location: Clearwater Beach, Fl

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#205 Postby caneman » Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:43 am

Yep, the only one that hasn't flip flopped. Doesn't mean it will be.right but at least it's consistent.
0 likes   

TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#206 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:46 am

Invest 93L looks good looking at it on visible until you realize that the low pressure center is located well to the west of the big blob of convection. Any chance the low reforms directly underneath that deep convection?

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#207 Postby Steve » Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:47 am

48 hours due south of Mobile Bay at 1002 on GFS. 54 hours is just off the mouth of the MS River with the Panhandle having been pounded for a while at that point. 60 hours closer to Boothville and still intensifying at 1000mb. GFS when it switched to the FL Panhandle solution has been brining the system in with an easterly component. That should show up soon or else it's going to show it stalling or being pushed by the high nosing in from the Atlantic with a block to the north behind the front not far behind.
Last edited by Steve on Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#208 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:51 am

Latest GFS appears to have shifted west as the system approaches the northern Gulf coast.
0 likes   

User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3339
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#209 Postby tailgater » Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:52 am

While that is an MLC, I could certainly see how it might swing around the Gyre until it gets to north of the Yucatan before becoming the more dominant Low. In fact I think that is what most of the models are showing us, just where it takes over and how soon is the difference in where it ends up going.
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4762
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#210 Postby psyclone » Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:55 am

That looks like a pretty good shift to the west by the GFS. NWS Tallahassee has been consistent in leaning on the Euro (with stay tuned caveats) in their discussions.
0 likes   

User avatar
hriverajr
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 786
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:16 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#211 Postby hriverajr » Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:56 am

As to the eastern blob.. definitely an MCV. In fact cloud tops are warming just a bit. You can clearly see a loose circulation at the surface just on the eastern Yucatan shore. Also the upper trough in the western Gulf of Mexico appears to be moving slowly to the wsw.
2 likes   
Anything I post is my personal opinion and should not used for any type of planning or lifesaving reasons. Please refer to National Weather Service forecasts.

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#212 Postby Steve » Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:57 am

Yes. 66 hours with a stall or loop still in the Gulf south of Venice. May begin to bend west or possibly loop there and hook one way or the other based on localized steering currents.
0 likes   

caneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1447
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2014 5:44 am
Location: Clearwater Beach, Fl

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#213 Postby caneman » Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:57 am

Maybe starting to get some agreement then?
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#214 Postby Steve » Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:59 am

78 hours moving into Grand Isle/Port Fouchon.
0 likes   

ronyan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 791
Age: 39
Joined: Tue Sep 09, 2008 5:46 pm
Location: Lake Jackson, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#215 Postby ronyan » Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:59 am

12z GFS looks stalled south of NOLA. Huge SW shift in the position of this model vs the 0z.
1 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22978
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#216 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jun 18, 2017 11:01 am

Wind at a buoy NW of the convection is from the SE at 15 kts. Winds southeast of that convection are also SE at 15 kts. Nothing in the lower levels there.
2 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#217 Postby Steve » Sun Jun 18, 2017 11:03 am

Should bring lots of coastal flooding but the rain and the wettest areas are off to the NE of the center down in South Georgia presumably from a piece of energy peeling off as 92L/Bret-by-then spins.

Very little movement (though west) between 66-90 hours. GFS may be too north too fast as compared to the other models, but it does bring the center up a bit East of the Yucatán.

Canadian should be out in a bit.
Last edited by Steve on Sun Jun 18, 2017 11:07 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Emmett_Brown
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1432
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm
Location: Sarasota FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#218 Postby Emmett_Brown » Sun Jun 18, 2017 11:04 am

Reminds me of the evolution of Hermine last year. Each day, she would fire up in impressive ball of convection way east of the surface low; her structure was severely tilted. Because of this, she took days to consolidate and develop. Therefore, I favor a more west solution like the Euro. The GFS seems to develop a center to the NE (perhaps in one of these MCS blowups).
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11161
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#219 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jun 18, 2017 11:04 am

Still showing North central gulf coast as the target
0 likes   
Michael

User avatar
lrak
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1770
Age: 58
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 2:48 pm
Location: Corpus Christi, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#220 Postby lrak » Sun Jun 18, 2017 11:09 am

Looks to me that some sort of Low is moving ashore in Northern Belize using the new visible satellite?


Forgot - Happy Farther's Day to all the Dads out there :flag:
3 likes   
AKA karl

Also
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts on this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. My posts are my basic observations and are definitely not backed by any "well some" meteorological knowledge. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests