ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
This may be an unpopular opinion, but I think that the appearance of 92L has improved over the past 2 hours. If you look closely, while the convection is ragged, it appears to be coalescing around a center. Unlike 93L, the beginnings of a swirl is under the central convection. Furthermore, there is some banding evident on the last frame. There is limited outflow despite some dry air.
1 likes
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20009
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145294
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Looks good in that animation.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145294
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
12z GFS initializes has this as a 1006mb weak TS which isn't the case. I have my doubts that Invest 92L ever gets a name at this point.
1 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
And if it doesn't form(although it was so close), does it still mean a busy season? Looking at the satellite loop it looks to be a total mess heading into the unfavorable environment already.
0 likes
- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6059
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Despite the somewhat lackluster satellite appearance, 92L does appear to have improved at the surface.
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/876469830081290241
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/876469830081290241
0 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
- Emmett_Brown
- Category 5
- Posts: 1432
- Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm
- Location: Sarasota FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
I think the visible sat loop looks like it is holding its own. The GFS shows it holding together into the E Caribbean now. I still think this has a shot to develop tomorrow.
0 likes
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16143
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
36~ hours left
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL922017 06/18/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 41 47 46 47 43 39 39 38 41
V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 41 47 46 47 43 33 35 35 37
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 41 40 37 33 27 28 27 28
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 2 2 5 8 7 15 19 25 27 28 12 11 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 6 4 2 6 7 7 1 0 5 1 0
SHEAR DIR 192 261 232 237 241 207 210 197 211 225 288 334 6
SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.2 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.0 28.6
POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 143 139 141 145 145 147 144 140 142 137 145
ADJ. POT. INT. 159 160 157 151 153 155 153 152 144 135 133 125 132
200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -53.7 -54.2 -53.5 -54.0 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 10 10 11 11
700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 63 62 61 58 60 61 57 56 54 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 14 16 13 13 10 7 5 2 2
850 MB ENV VOR 38 50 43 26 12 13 -6 14 -2 -20 -60 -96 -116
200 MB DIV 51 63 80 91 81 103 60 27 0 -9 -3 -27 -1
700-850 TADV -4 -7 -6 -5 -5 4 11 10 5 -1 0 -1 -5
LAND (KM) 533 433 352 331 371 274 287 279 73 -44 93 103 79
LAT (DEG N) 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.6 9.2 11.1 13.3 15.6 17.5 19.4 20.9 22.0 22.7
LONG(DEG W) 47.4 49.4 51.4 53.3 55.2 58.5 61.8 65.1 68.4 71.3 73.8 75.8 77.7
STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 20 20 19 19 20 19 18 15 12 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 39 39 45 29 35 39 47 32 55 60 18 18 34
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -2. -2. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. -0. -2. -7. -11. -14. -19. -19.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 16. 17. 13. 9. 9. 8. 11.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 7.0 47.4
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 06/18/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.93 4.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.24 1.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.42 2.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 3.2
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.88 2.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.49 0.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 126.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.5 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 40.7% 22.0% 9.7% 8.2% 14.8% 17.9% 18.9%
Logistic: 6.6% 39.2% 21.2% 9.6% 9.0% 11.7% 16.4% 17.7%
Bayesian: 0.8% 3.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 1.3%
Consensus: 5.1% 27.9% 14.6% 6.4% 5.8% 8.9% 11.7% 12.7%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 06/18/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 06/18/2017 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 41 47 46 47 43 33 35 35 37
18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 38 44 43 44 40 30 32 32 34
12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 39 38 39 35 25 27 27 29
6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 30 29 30 26 16 18 18 20
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL922017 06/18/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 41 47 46 47 43 39 39 38 41
V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 41 47 46 47 43 33 35 35 37
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 41 40 37 33 27 28 27 28
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 2 2 5 8 7 15 19 25 27 28 12 11 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 6 4 2 6 7 7 1 0 5 1 0
SHEAR DIR 192 261 232 237 241 207 210 197 211 225 288 334 6
SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.2 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.0 28.6
POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 143 139 141 145 145 147 144 140 142 137 145
ADJ. POT. INT. 159 160 157 151 153 155 153 152 144 135 133 125 132
200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -53.7 -54.2 -53.5 -54.0 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 10 10 11 11
700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 63 62 61 58 60 61 57 56 54 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 14 16 13 13 10 7 5 2 2
850 MB ENV VOR 38 50 43 26 12 13 -6 14 -2 -20 -60 -96 -116
200 MB DIV 51 63 80 91 81 103 60 27 0 -9 -3 -27 -1
700-850 TADV -4 -7 -6 -5 -5 4 11 10 5 -1 0 -1 -5
LAND (KM) 533 433 352 331 371 274 287 279 73 -44 93 103 79
LAT (DEG N) 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.6 9.2 11.1 13.3 15.6 17.5 19.4 20.9 22.0 22.7
LONG(DEG W) 47.4 49.4 51.4 53.3 55.2 58.5 61.8 65.1 68.4 71.3 73.8 75.8 77.7
STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 20 20 19 19 20 19 18 15 12 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 39 39 45 29 35 39 47 32 55 60 18 18 34
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -2. -2. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. -0. -2. -7. -11. -14. -19. -19.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 16. 17. 13. 9. 9. 8. 11.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 7.0 47.4
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 06/18/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.93 4.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.24 1.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.42 2.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 3.2
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.88 2.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.49 0.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 126.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.5 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 40.7% 22.0% 9.7% 8.2% 14.8% 17.9% 18.9%
Logistic: 6.6% 39.2% 21.2% 9.6% 9.0% 11.7% 16.4% 17.7%
Bayesian: 0.8% 3.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 1.3%
Consensus: 5.1% 27.9% 14.6% 6.4% 5.8% 8.9% 11.7% 12.7%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 06/18/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 06/18/2017 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 41 47 46 47 43 33 35 35 37
18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 38 44 43 44 40 30 32 32 34
12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 39 38 39 35 25 27 27 29
6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 30 29 30 26 16 18 18 20
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
0 likes
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16143
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
No evidence of curved banding features, but I still think this will develop before conditions become hostile on Tuesday.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145294
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Recon
First mission on Monday afternoon.
Code: Select all
SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF TRINIDAD)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
A. 19/1800Z A. 20/0530Z,1130Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 19/1500Z C. 20/0300Z
D. 9.0N 56.0W D. 10.5N 60.0W
E. 19/1730Z TO 19/2130Z E. 20/0500Z TO 20/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Ragged convective patter for sure. but the surface structure has definitely become more apparent with the classic V shape int he ITCZ around it. The last few hours some deeper convection has developed very near the what would likely become the closed circ. convection is key right now and well slowing down a little would help.
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145294
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
2 PM TWO:60%-60%
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave about 800
miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands have become a
little better organized since yesterday. Some additional
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days before environmental conditions become less favorable for
tropical cyclone formation. This system is forecast to move to the
west-northwest at near 20 mph toward the Windward Islands and
northeastern South America during the next two days, and interests
in these areas should monitor its progress. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely to
spread over portions of the Windward Islands Monday night and
Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system on Monday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands have become a
little better organized since yesterday. Some additional
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days before environmental conditions become less favorable for
tropical cyclone formation. This system is forecast to move to the
west-northwest at near 20 mph toward the Windward Islands and
northeastern South America during the next two days, and interests
in these areas should monitor its progress. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely to
spread over portions of the Windward Islands Monday night and
Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system on Monday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23691
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
12Z EC down to 1006mb in 24 hours. Considering the EC had nothing from this just a couple of days ago, I would say this was a forecast bust for this model.
1 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
gatorcane wrote:12Z EC down to 1006mb in 24 hours. Considering the EC had nothing from this just a couple of days ago, I would say this was a forecast bust for this model.
I agree, the NHC will probably go up again on development chances now that the Euro is on board.
1 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
The argument could be made for this being closed--the models have always shown a fairly small system.
1 likes
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- weathaguyry
- Category 5
- Posts: 1272
- Age: 22
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
I truly believe this will become Bret. By the look of it, the structure was disrupted a little when it left the ITCZ, but 92L hasn't had too much trouble producing it's own convection. I truly believe Recon will find a closed low tomorrow, and that this will get upgraded to TD 2/TS Bret tomorrow at 5PM. This is just my opinion though 

1 likes
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20009
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Saved RGB loop. Starting to look like something/


2 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
-
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 55
- Age: 35
- Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:07 am
- Location: Barbados
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests