ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

I hear you. I wasn't referring to you as a Euro Hugger. There is a contingent that takes it as Gospel (sometimes in fun). I tend to usually give it the most weight, but I'm not a hugger.
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Mike,

Maybe so. I think it depends on how far north it gets and also how slowly the movement is. Pretty cool that we are at like 3.5/4 days, and most of the localized effects are a mystery. Like I said, I grabbed some water and snacks. I can get more but water will be tougher if someone sounds the alarm here.

[AJC3]

Still very disorganized, but these things require time and patience. I think the GFS will eventually cave.

What do you mean the GFS will cave? To what?

I think it will eventually drop the Eastern GOM solution with the trough weakening.

Given the trend in the EURO and UKMET over the last few days, you won't be able to say any model will have "caved" to another model with this system. The Euro solutions from a few days ago, showed this system down in the BOC, with a Mexican landfall several hundred miles south of where last night's 00Z run has it (near Corpus Christi). In fact, several early runs of the GFS/GFSP showed a similar solution. If memory serves me correctly, the UKMET may have had solutions closest to what WPC has been forecasting in the extended range.

All the globals, including the Canuck, have been trending toward a better consensus with potential landfall along the TX/LA coast. This is encouraging as far as modestly increasing confidence and narrowing the track forecast range.

[cycloneye]

No Recon for today

REMARK: ALL MISSIONS TASKED IN TCPOD 17-017 CANCELED BY
NHC AT 18/1335Z.

[ronjon]

Vigorous MLC now located near 19N-83W, headed for the area of highest low level vorticity near the Isle of Youth. Have to see if the low level vorticity now lines up with the MLC. I don't see much turning nor convection near the Yucatan now. All the energy seems well east of there now.

[wxman57]

Is that a MLC in the current loop? It's a little intimidating...

Buoy just WNW of that complex of squalls has SW wind at 5 kts. There doesn't appear to be any rotation at the surface there. Squalls have been diminishing for the past 3-5 hours.

[cycloneye]

For Monday afternoon (Tentative) first mission.

Code: Select all

SUSPECT AREA (NEAR YUCATAN PENINSULA)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71          FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
       A. 19/2000Z                    A. 20/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST          B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
       C. 19/1800Z                    C. 20/0930Z
       D. 23.0N 88.5W                 D. 24.5N 90.0W
       E. 19/1930Z TO 19/2330Z        E. 20/1100Z TO 20/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT            F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[stormreader]

Is that a MLC in the current loop? It's a little intimidating...

I believe a new center has or will soon form there. It looks vigorous.

I just don't think that's likely Tarheel. You have a very large area of generally lower pressure in the NW Caribbean. Thus this MLC took shape to the east. But the 1006 lowest surface pressure is really quite low for the tropics. Once this emerges off the into the Gom and is surrounded by somewhat higher surface pressures in the environment there then you should expect a pretty dominant low level center there.

[Aric Dunn]

HI all

Yeah no surface feature with that MLC yet. though its not our of the question if convection builds again in association with it. the surface low is weak to the west and could easily become more defined anywhere in the NW Caribb where we get persistent convection .

[Nimbus]

Yesterday the broad circulation looked like it might track over Cozumel but today the low clouds tracking north are not as far off the coast of the Yucatan.
Has the GFS given up on a mid gulf coast soaking in favor of Texas?

[Ivanhater]

All the models still seems to show the worst weather to the north and east of the center.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO: 60%-90%

Surface observations and satellite data indicate that a broad low
pressure area is centered near the east coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. This system is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms along with winds to gale force several hundred miles
to the east and northeast of the center. However, the low lacks a
well-defined center of circulation, and the Hurricane Hunter mission
scheduled for this afternoon has been canceled. Gradual development
is expected while the low moves slowly north-northwestward across
the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight, and then over the southern or
central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, where a tropical or
subtropical cyclone is likely to form. Regardless of development,
heavy rains are expected over portions of Central America, the
Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba
during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Monday, if
necessary. For more information on this system, please see the
High Seas Forecast issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast
Branch.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[perk]

Well, well, models are converging on the westerly track.

Yeah but where on the western GOM.

[ronjon]

850 mb vorticity high and elongated from western Caribbean to western Cuba. Seems to me llc could form anywhere in the zone. Highest convergence south of western cuba now.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

[Steve]

Initial surge is moving across South FL and the keys getting close to Miami. Small Craft Advisories are up. More substantial warnings are ahead in the next few days for sure.

[NDG]

Not surprising nothing but southerly winds underneath the MLC.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro @ Hr72 moving West towards Mexico. Let's see if the trough comes in and takes it into Texas like the past runs.

[stormhunter7]

The goes-16 data is pretty remarkable. Close up vis shows MLC is not working down to surface, yet.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the EC has shifted left some at 72 hours. So that is at least 500 miles off where the GFS has this. Good grief

[Aric Dunn]

The goes-16 data is pretty remarkable. Close up vis shows MLC is not working down to surface, yet.

Where is everyone getting the goes 16 loops and stuff ?

[NDG]

And then the Euro stalls it off of Brownsville