ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

Yes, Euro totally missed this a few days ago and having the low move into the BOC.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/876518341963370496

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/876518341963370496

To go along with that:

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/876491658015252482

[Aric Dunn]

There is some serious convergence right here as the wave axis sharpens on the NE side. . should see a large convective burst.

[tarheelprogrammer]

It does look to be getting a ton more organized in such a short span. Still think the center is east of where the NHC and others have it. Aric is close to my thinking just a tad east. Just an opinion though. You can see the clouds all around the system are starting to rotate around it more. It is a race between 92L and 93L to be Bret.

[Aric Dunn]

It does look to be getting a ton more organized in such a short span. Still think the center is east of where the NHC and others have it. Aric is close to my thinking just a tad east. Just an opinion though. You can see the clouds all around the system are starting to rotate around it more. It is a race between 92L and 93L to be Bret.

my circle is not where I think a LLC is going to form necessarily. I was just mentioning that there is a large amount of convergence in this area.

[tarheelprogrammer]

It does look to be getting a ton more organized in such a short span. Still think the center is east of where the NHC and others have it. Aric is close to my thinking just a tad east. Just an opinion though. You can see the clouds all around the system are starting to rotate around it more. It is a race between 92L and 93L to be Bret.

my circle is not where I think a LLC is going to form necessarily. I was just mentioning that there is a large amount of convergence in this area.

Oops sorry. I took it the wrong way. Where do you think the LLC is or will be soon then?

[Dean4Storms]

Hello everyone....looks like 2017 season is off and running!

Still looks very disorganized at the lower levels with apparent SSE winds all thru the MLC. Need another day or two and if that MLC continues to build convection it could develop a surface reflection but it will take time from this point.

[xironman]

It actually looks like the 12z NAM has a good handle on how things are progressing so far this afternoon.

And the end of that model run actually looks quite reasonable as well. Interested to see how well it does.

Did you say NAM?

[xironman]

Looks like the MLC is digging down to the surface, but they do give head fakes.

[South Texas Storms]

It actually looks like the 12z NAM has a good handle on how things are progressing so far this afternoon.

And the end of that model run actually looks quite reasonable as well. Interested to see how well it does.

Did you say NAM?

Yep, it actually has the 850 mb vorticity maximum close to where it is now.

And if you follow it the entire run it's actually kind of close to what I'm thinking might happen.

[wxman57]

Yes, Euro totally missed this a few days ago and having the low move into the BOC.

And the GFS has had a hurricane hitting everywhere from Mexico to the SE U.S. Atlantic coast over the past 2 weeks. Euro has been consistently indicating a west movement from the Yucatan, not north into Florida.

[bamajammer4eva]

Another view

[TeamPlayersBlue]

It seems as if there are some small areas of convection popping near the surface low but nothing extraordinary. So much shear in the area. This was all expected.

Someone mentioned humberto earlier, that was my first thought a few days ago. Big broad circulation, that as soon as the shear dissipated, it blew up and the rest was history. I think that broad circulation, and warm water (obv) was the reason for the RI. This one has alot of shear to battle.

[Wx_Warrior]

I believe the Parallel EURO takes over the old EURO in July.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Another view

Great view of the llc there

[tarheelprogrammer]

LOL
 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/876527396991770625

[TJRE]

WPC surface prog for Tues 8:00pm EDT



day 1-3 QPF cast


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.shtml#page=ovw

[gatorcane]

We have popcorn over the NW Carib...i think we are seeing some gradual organization. Any chance a low forms closer to the MLC or more NE of the broad Yucatán low?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[tatertawt24]

Jeez, not in too much of a rush, is it?