ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stormlover2013]

I remember Humberto, disturbance to hurricane overnight I don't trust anything in the gulf, u never know

[caneman]

Really not a lover of any particular model. I take each storm on its own terms and weigh info given by major models then. But if this storm makes a Texas landfall, it will definitely be a bummer for the GFS. To post what models were saying last week in the 9 day time frame is not very relevant. As we got to about 7 days or so the Euro started pointing Tex-Mex. GFS was toward Appalachicola. We are in 4-5 day frame now, GFS is where, SE La or so??. If this becomes Texas landfall, GFS will have nothing to brag about. Every storm different brings new variables. Long season ahead. Perhaps the GFS can salvage something here with a landfall in SE La, but I wouldn't count on it.

Please stop with the modeling comparisons. The Euro has also offered several solutions from East Pac. To Mexico to Texas to development, no development, back to development, no development.
Neither has been stellar. That's why we use the NHC blend.

[Alyono]

not sure I believe the decoupling. We are going to have the system coming under the influence of a ridge, so I am having a hard time buying a scenario with strong enough shear to cause decoupling

[Kingarabian]

not sure I believe the decoupling. We are going to have the system coming under the influence of a ridge, so I am having a hard time buying a scenario with strong enough shear to cause decoupling

I don't know what then, because it's the 2nd run showing this scenario. And the Euro does not have it all top impressive through most of the course.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Hasn't even became a depression yet so wouldn't depend on models until we have a storm..

Not that it matters in this basin but be aware it is listed on jtwc as a 35kt storm atm.
93L INVEST 170618 1800 19.0N 87.1W ATL 35 1006

[RL3AO]

You guys, the NHC calling this a tropical cyclone doesn't flip some magic switch in the models to make them work better.

[cycloneye]

00z Best track:

As of 00:00 UTC Jun 19, 2017:

Location: 19.8°N 87.0°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1008 mb
Radius of Circulation: 240 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 200 NM

[mcheer23]

00z Models shift west.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

The models do however get a better grasp on a organised low with steering.
Weak nothings tend to be erratic.

[NDG]

Good example of how the Euro has been over doing the ridging across the north central gulf coast, this is why it will continue to trend towards a landfall of northern TX coast of SW LA as we get closer in time, IMO.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Wow. That best track aint too shabby.

[floridasun78]

it rainy good here from 93l outer band in miami tonight

[Hammy]

00z Best track:

As of 00:00 UTC Jun 19, 2017:

Location: 19.8°N 87.0°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1008 mb
Radius of Circulation: 240 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 200 NM

So directly to TS if this can manage to organize at some point.

[stormreader]

Good example of how the Euro has been over doing the ridging across the north central gulf coast, this is why it will continue to trend towards a landfall of northern TX coast of SW LA as we get closer in time, IMO.

May be right. About 36 hours or so ago we started to see hints from the western assortment of models of a possible run north during the later period toward the upper Texas coast. This is why I always included the Tex-La border as a possibility to be included with the Texas landfall scenario.

[Hammy]

Wow, the Euro has not done well with the steering pattern beyond a few days. Has the parallel done any better?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/876612582047698944

[NDG]

H85 vorticity getting better defined little by little.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It'll be interesting to see how the system develops in the Gulf of Mexico with proximity to the upper-level low farther west. We may be dealing with something that looks like Lee, with an exposed circulation and all weather north and east of the center--something that could border on being subtropical. I tend to favor the northwestern Gulf (Texas/Louisiana) as a landfall point, since models have slowed the system down over coming days. That should allow more time for the East Coast trough to lift out and ridging to develop, forcing 93L on a west-northwest track after initially moving north. Regardless, it'll be a typical June storm--messy, short-lived, with heavy rainfall as the main threat.

[Hammy]

Vorticity location could support something closer to the GFS (over the Euro) track.

[gatorcane]

The upper trough over the NW Gulf seems to have gone stationary again. Tough for this system to move west into that.