ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Eric u leaning towards gfs?

unfortunately im not with any model right now since none are initialized correctly. they are all initialized to far south and west and too slow. the center will take shape just north of the yucatan somewhere by morning ish.

if it develops farther east then the trough will likely snag it. if farther west then it might get left behind. another 12 hours will give us much better insight.

[Aric Dunn]

personal thoughts are leaning towards northern gulf florida panhandle to MI


sheared system with a center constantly reforming N to NNE eastward eventually getting caught in the trough before it lifts out.

but could stay weaker and survive and make it farther west get left behind and slowly move towards upper texas to mid texas coast.

[Aric Dunn]

if you look. latest surface obs are showing the low level flow bulging north just off shore the Yucatan still broad but by tomorrow midday convection will have spread to the north side in the central gulf.

[StLucieStorm]

That appears to be along the lines of what i was thinking. Upper level steering currents certainly seem to support at least the possibility of a Panhandle strike. It's insane to me the lack of any sort of attention to this system from any local mets. The proximity alone makes this system one worth watching.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

To be fair on your local mets cimss shear atm is not supporting a storm in the GOM.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Aric Dunn]

To be fair on your local mets cimss shear atm is not supporting a storm.

well that depends on the initialization in the models..

[StLucieStorm]

Genesis does appear to be more likely then not at this point. While i do understand the concept of not ringing alarm bells unduly and so forth, the amount of people that do not even know of the existence of any sort of tropical threat is astounding. A sheared mess it may be, but after recent sustained heavy rains for many on the florida panhandle the soil is extremely saturated. Ending up on the east side of a convectively lopsided system could certainly be a very large headache or more for many.

[StLucieStorm]

I apologise. Recent heavy rains on the peninsula is what i meant.

[stormreader]

0zNAM 3KM develops a stunning cyclone by Wednesday morning....

And that's why NAM isn't used for tropical cyclones. It had Hermine as a Category 4 at landfall last year.

Point well taken. However, I think we may need to look at a reasonable chance of a June hurricane in the central-west gulf. Almost all models are showing a more significant storm now than they did three days ago. The GFS, which I think is too east has been hinting at a hurricane for a day or two. If higher pressure ridges in a little stronger over the SE US you could have very positive conditions for development.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

To be fair on your local mets cimss shear atm is not supporting a storm.

well that depends on the initialization in the models..

No doubts the models are all showing a storm in the GOM. If those shear values hold up
there will be no anvils on the thunderstorms.

[paintplaye]

00z ECMWF is trying to develop the northern vorticity similar to the GFS. Still has a similar track though to 12z at 36H out.

[Aric Dunn]

To be fair on your local mets cimss shear atm is not supporting a storm.

well that depends on the initialization in the models..

No doubts the models are all showing a storm in the GOM. If those shear values hold up
there will be no anvils on the thunderstorms.

or a deepening hurricane lol ... still to early..

[Hammy]

With those two massive blobs of convection going, where's the main circulation most likely to form at this point?

[Aric Dunn]

With those two massive blobs of convection going, where's the main circulation most likely to form at this point?

read what I wrote a few posts up ..

[USTropics]

With those two massive blobs of convection going, where's the main circulation most likely to form at this point?

read what I wrote a few posts up ..

I think you're pretty much dead accurate. All signs point to any LLC forming off the northern coast of the Yucatan.


700mb vort loop from the past 12 hours also has moved towards that location


Current surface observations:


Shortwave IR:

[USTropics]

The 00z GFS solution is a reasonable one. 93L will most likely struggle to maintain an inner core, and multiple center reformations to the north/northeast is a likely outcome. You can clearly see this happening at 24 hours in the 850mb vort loop:

[USTropics]

The 00z ECMWF run has landfall in Texas and is close to the 12z run from yesterday:

[Kingarabian]

GFS continues its shift west at 06z.

[TheStormExpert]

GFS continues its shift west at 06z.

I don't see a shift west? Looks similar to yesterday's 18z run.

[NDG]

GFS continues its shift west at 06z.

I don't see a shift west? Looks similar to yesterday's 18z run.

I agree, is exactly like yesterday's 18z.