ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[ouragans]

When is the mission carded to begin?

.

Takeoff at 15z, to be there by 1730z. Looks like a departure from the USVI

[ouragans]

When is the mission carded to begin?

.

Plane departs at 11 AM EDT from Florida

Where can you read the departure point? 2.5 hrs flight looks like a departure from St Croix. A commercial turboprop needs 2 hrs from San Juan to Port of Spain, T&T

[ouragans]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/876792951770427392




Hum...

[RL3AO]

When is the mission carded to begin?

.

Plane departs at 11 AM EDT from Florida

Where can you read the departure point? 2.5 hrs flight looks like a departure from St Croix. A commercial turboprop needs 2 hrs from San Juan to Port of Spain, T&T

It's an assumption. Flights into systems near the islands always leave from St. Croix.

[cycloneye]

ASCAT missed almost all of the circulation so the plane this afternoon will be the important moment.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/876804343890141184

[TheStormExpert]

I'm starting to think this will never get a name.

If this was last year this would have already probably been named but because of this new method they now have luxury of waiting.

[cycloneye]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017
1100 AM AST Mon Jun 19 2017

The convective pattern of the disturbance has become better
organized this morning with a ragged band that wraps more than half
way around its center. The intensity is assessed at 35 kt based
upon the Dvorak 2.5 CI number from TAFB. These winds are likely
only occurring in the northern semicircle due to the very quick
translational velocity of the system.

Intensity model guidance is in good agreement that the
environmental conditions may allow for some slight intensification
in the next day or so with the system embedded within low vertical
shear and an atmosphere that is marginally moist and unstable.
Beginning in about 36 hours, however, the shear should go up to
either moderate (if the GFS is correct) or high (if the ECMWF is
correct) levels because of an approaching tropical upper-
tropospheric trough. Because of this increasing shear, all guidance
shows the system dissipating before 72 hr and so does the official
forecast. An alternative scenario - given that the disturbance has
tracked left, or equatorward, of the guidance thus far - is that
it could remain south of guidance and dissipate over Venezuela and
never reach the Caribbean Sea.

The quick motion also makes it ambiguous as to whether the system
has a closed, earth-relative circulation center. An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate the system later
today to help in this determination. It is still anticipated that
the system will become a tropical storm, but it may be running out
of time if it interacts significantly with Venezuela.

The system is moving toward the west at a very rapid 22 kt due to
the fast low to mid-level tradewinds south of a strong Bermuda
high. It is likely that a rapid motion toward the west
or west-northwest will continue until dissipation. The official
track forecast is based upon the HCCA corrected consensus technique
and is slightly south compared with the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 8.8N 56.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 20/0000Z 9.5N 59.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 10.6N 63.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 11.7N 66.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 12.6N 70.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[abajan]

Now it's accelerated to 25 mph! I doubt very much the circulation will close off today, if ever.

[TheStormExpert]

Hmmm... I thought the trades were supposed to be slower than normal this season?

Peak intensity is now down to 40kts/45mph. The window for this becoming anything more is QUICKLY closing.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

:uarrow: Hmmm... I thought the trades were supposed to be slower than normal this season?

Peak intensity is now down to 40kts/45mph. The window for this becoming anything more is QUICKLY closing.

Trade winds are always going to be high in June.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: Hmmm... I thought the trades were supposed to be slower than normal this season?

Peak intensity is now down to 40kts/45mph. The window for this becoming anything more is QUICKLY closing.

Trade winds are always going to be high in June.

I remember one of the long-range models was forecasting them to be below average.

[RL3AO]

:uarrow: Hmmm... I thought the trades were supposed to be slower than normal this season?

Peak intensity is now down to 40kts/45mph. The window for this becoming anything more is QUICKLY closing.

Trade winds are below average right now. There is a reason the MDR doesn't have June storms.

[1900hurricane]

I still think we're dealing with a tropical cyclone, but I'm not a confident as I was about 12 hours ago. Recent microwave passes indicate to me that there has been a decrease in organization. Convergent streamlines are hardly discernible to the south of the system now (although the METOP-B pass doesn't have the highest resolution either).



For a comparison, here is the 85 and 37 GHz GPM pass from 0416Z. Cyclonic curving convergent streamlines are clear as day around the entirety of the system.

[Aric Dunn]

Low level cloud deck thinking. near the center again. should see another large increase in convection over the center..

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: Hmmm... I thought the trades were supposed to be slower than normal this season?

Peak intensity is now down to 40kts/45mph. The window for this becoming anything more is QUICKLY closing.

Trade winds are below average right now. There is a reason the MDR doesn't have June storms.

What do the reds and purples stand for?

[RL3AO]

What do the reds and purples stand for?

Reds mean the trade winds at 850mb are more westerly (aka weaker easterlies). Purples mean the trade winds are stronger easterlies.

That's the simple version. When you break the wind into components - zonal (east/west) and meridional (north/south) you can compare them to climatology which is what this map shows.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76          FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 74
       A. 20/2330Z                    A. 21/1130Z
       B. AFXXX 0302A CYCLONE         B. AFXXX 0402A CYCLONE
       C. 20/2200Z                    C. 21/0945Z
       D. 11.7N 66.0W                 D. 12.6N 70.6W
       E. 20/2300Z TO 21/0230Z        E. 21/1100Z TO 21/1430Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT            F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS now down to 994mb in 18hrs. before weakening.

[Aric Dunn]

pretty clear from latest microwave we have the llc out running the MLC over and over everytime new convection build.. black circle is the llc from couple hours ago while the more defined MLC is quite clear in white. .

original image..

[weathaguyry]

GFS keeps this identifiable through the Caribbean

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017061912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_8.png