ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

This is setting up to be another major flooding event late this week for the Gulf Coast. This will be another sheared, lopsided tropical cyclone. My prayers and thoughts now will go out to many along the Gulf Coast.

[tailgater]

Probably another swirl eddy ENE of that one, you can see the inflow going SSW and WSW into into the heavier thunder storms.

[latitude_20]

Overcast, cool and a slight breeze here in Tulum, Mexico. Rained a good portion of the night, looks like more on the way.

[Tireman4]

Overcast, cool and a slight breeze here in Tulum, Mexico. Rained a good portion of the night, looks like more on the way.

Keep us updated...

[tolakram]

Using this: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/goesEastconusband02.html

You can see possibly the main circulation and some eddies around it.

These generated images are dynamic and will only last a few minutes.
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/dynamic/GANIMmE6Y4L10.jpg

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Nice little naked swirl there. Look at the shear above it though. Really moving there. Lets see if some convection pops up today.

[tropicwatch]

I take it that the main circulation is the one at the northern end of Yucatan and the one north of that is an eddy?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Look at that inflow at the bottom right hand corner of the sat view

[tolakram]

I take it that the main circulation is the one at the northern end of Yucatan and the one north of that is an eddy?

http://tropicwatch.info/93l719170851.gif

They all look like eddies to me, rotating around a central circulation off the tip of the Yuc.

[jasons2k]

I take it that the main circulation is the one at the northern end of Yucatan and the one north of that is an eddy?

http://tropicwatch.info/93l719170851.gif

They all look like eddies to me, rotating around a central circulation off the tip of the Yuc.

That's what I see as well, and it's still open.

[cycloneye]

Important message from Eric Blake.

@EricBlake12
Twitter peeps: Stop obsessing on the track of the "center" of #93L & focus on the threat of heavy rainfall/flooding over the South!



 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/876807411113349120

[Ntxw]

Important message from Eric Blake.

@EricBlake12
Twitter peeps: Stop obsessing on the track of the "center" of #93L & focus on the threat of heavy rainfall/flooding over the South!



 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/876807411113349120

Agree with this 100%! Unless it really cranks into a hurricane, nature of the shear and upper pattern heavy rains well east of the center will be main threat

[wxman57]

Don't follow those little swirls. Follow the convection. The center always follows the convection. I suspect a main center will develop between 24.5N-25.5N later today. That's just what the EC has been forecasting. There will be other small swirls rotating around a big low pressure area, as has been expected.

[1900hurricane]

Here's a look at two 12Z soundings from the Yucatan and Key West. Both still show some issues with shear. MMMD has 25 kt southerly winds near anvil level. This isn't excessive, but having the wind vector point inwards towards the budding surface circulation is not healthy. KEYW has 55 kt westerly winds around the same level, but this is also enhanced by thunderstorm outflow. Upper level wind vectors appear to agree well with WV imagery (also attached below). Low level lapse rates are surprisingly impressive for a tropical case, so it isn't surprising to see intense convection nearby. Both have similar PWs, but MMMD has a drier layer from 850-550 mb or so. DCAPE in the sounding is at 732 J/kg, so any storms that try to go up on the western side of the circulation will probably spit out outflow boundaries, at least initially.

[TheStormExpert]

Unless that ULL just south of the Louisiana coastline dissipates or moves out of the way don't expect much(if at all any) in the way of development.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 73          FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
       A. 20/2330Z, 21/0530Z          A. 21/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0303A CYCLONE         B. AFXXX 0403A CYCLONE
       C. 20/2100Z                    C. 21/0930Z
       D. 27.3N 91.2W                 D. 28.0N 92.5W
       E. 20/2300Z TO 21/0530Z        E. 21/1100Z TO 21/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT            F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM APPROACHING THE ISLANDS
          IF IT REMAINS A THREAT.
       B. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON GULF SYSTEM IF IT DEVELOPS.

    4. REMARKS:  NASA 817 DOING RESEARCH IN THE GULF DEPARTING FLL
       AT 19/1700Z. ALTITUDE 28,000 TO 33,000 FT. 20 TO 25 DROPS.

[wxman57]

:uarrow: Unless that ULL just south of the Louisiana coastline dissipates or moves out of the way don't expect much(if at all any) in the way of development.

It's possible it may never look a whole lot better then it does now.

[RL3AO]

:uarrow: Unless that ULL just south of the Louisiana coastline dissipates or moves out of the way don't expect much(if at all any) in the way of development.

It's possible it may never look a whole lot better then it does now.

AKA every other June GOM storm we've seen in the last decade.

[Aric Dunn]

we got another vort spitting out north of the naked swirl.. looks like it will in this state of chaos its entire life

[1900hurricane]

KLTX, which is near the core of the subtropical jet, had 60 kt SSW winds above 200 mb in their 12Z sounding. 93L shouldn't find itself directly beneath the core of the subtropical jet, but it's probably a safe assumption that it will be dealing with shear for its entire existence.