ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

Getting a tower firing off in the circulation.

Recon's radar should be able to see it.

[KimmieLa]

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Was there not massive flooding last year about the same time in the MS and LA delta region?

August 2016 was a $10 billion flood disaster.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/e ... gulf-coast

Yes, quite a few of us were affected by the rains last summer. I personally would never want to go through a flood like that again. It took us over 6 months to get back in our home. So, off topic, but, am praying for this to fizzle so no one has to suffer, especially in south La. where anxiety is beginning to run high based on FB posts I am seeing.

[cycloneye]

The NHC recon site has stopped releasing data for now.

[Steve]

NAM 12km resolution 18Z shows a 980mb pressure at 29 hours which is the lowest I've seen that model's output. It climbs back to 985 at 36 hours which is as far out as it has run so far. No confidence in the pressure estimate for the model, but the track looks decent enough.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like according to recon this should be 40 kts and 998mb but if they name both systems at the same time I would guess this would be Cindy and the system near South America would be Bret

[tarheelprogrammer]

Recon just measured 998 mb in this is that correct?

[stormreader]

Getting a tower firing off in the circulation.

Recon's radar should be able to see it.

That's a definite improvement as far as organization. I think the 996 mb or so that many models have forecast is close to the mark. Looked like crap this morning, but we should, at a minimum see a decently organized tropical storm from this. And as it nears the upper Texas coast you might see more strengthening. I'm staying with a guess of a 70mph system at landfall near La-Tex border. I wouldn't automatically rule out a Cat 1 either if it slows some near the coast.

[Michele B]

Operational GFS is in agreement with the GFS para in this case

How is it the GFS models are now the "darling" trackers? All I ever hear are pro-mets quoting the GFS tracks as gospel.

In years past, the Euro models seemed to perform better. What changed?

[wxman57]

A little birdie told me that the NHC plans to call the system approaching the Caribbean "Bret" shortly. Rumor has it that the system in the Gulf will be Potential Tropical Cyclone Three soon. Never trust rumors...

[RL3AO]

A little birdie told me that the NHC plans to call the system approaching the Caribbean "Bret" shortly. Rumor has it that the system in the Gulf will be Potential Tropical Cyclone Three soon. Never trust rumors...

It's gonna need to be a Potential TC sometime this evening (aka 5 or 11pm), unless it becomes Cindy first.

[stormreader]

A little birdie told me that the NHC plans to call the system approaching the Caribbean "Bret" shortly. Rumor has it that the system in the Gulf will be Potential Tropical Cyclone Three soon. Never trust rumors...

Smart little birdie!

[Blow_Hard]

A little birdie told me that the NHC plans to call the system approaching the Caribbean "Bret" shortly. Rumor has it that the system in the Gulf will be Potential Tropical Cyclone Three soon. Never trust rumors...

If it were coming from anyone else I'd be very leery but I'll roll the dice with you...

[HurricaneBrain]

Cindy is that you?

Getting a tower firing off in the circulation.

Recon's radar should be able to see it.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Either the NAM is over doing this by a ton or it sees something the other models do not.

[mcheer23]

NHC will be initiating advisories at 4 PM CDT on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three, located over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

[Steve]

I don't know. TV Weathermen seem to like it more.

NAM almost inland at 54 hours at the TX/LA Border and deepening into the 970's. I'm not seeing that at this point, but I wanted to get it in for reference.

[HurricaneBrain]

Going to be interesting to see the initial projected path.

A little birdie told me that the NHC plans to call the system approaching the Caribbean "Bret" shortly. Rumor has it that the system in the Gulf will be Potential Tropical Cyclone Three soon. Never trust rumors...

[cycloneye]

NHC will be initiating advisories at 4 PM CDT on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three, located over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

[davidiowx]

Going to be interesting to see the initial projected path.

A little birdie told me that the NHC plans to call the system approaching the Caribbean "Bret" shortly. Rumor has it that the system in the Gulf will be Potential Tropical Cyclone Three soon. Never trust rumors...

If I had to guess, I would say TX/LA border.. But I guess it all just depends on what model they trust more at this point..

[SoupBone]

A little birdie told me that the NHC plans to call the system approaching the Caribbean "Bret" shortly. Rumor has it that the system in the Gulf will be Potential Tropical Cyclone Three soon. Never trust rumors...

If it were coming from anyone else I'd be very leery but I'll roll the dice with you...

I hate Wxman because he ruined my Winter with his -removed-.