ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

This is the model thread. Please cut the chatter and stick to model runs and direct discussion about those runs.

This is the final notice on this, post deletion will start from this point on and if we have to delete too many post from any single user a warning may be issued to that user.

Thanks in advance for your understanding and cooperation.

[cycloneye]

RNT15 KNHC 192154
AF305 01AAA INVEST HDOB 22 20170619
214400 2445N 08945W 9827 00168 0017 +245 +234 016038 039 029 002 00
214430 2445N 08947W 9831 00164 0018 +245 +234 015038 039 024 003 03
214500 2446N 08949W 9834 00162 0018 +245 +236 012036 038 023 002 00
214530 2446N 08950W 9830 00168 0019 +242 +237 012037 038 021 003 03
214600 2446N 08952W 9831 00167 0020 +241 +237 012036 037 023 002 00
214630 2446N 08954W 9830 00169 0021 +240 +235 014035 036 023 002 00
214700 2446N 08956W 9829 00170 0022 +242 +234 013034 035 024 001 00
214730 2446N 08957W 9830 00170 0022 +242 +235 013033 035 021 002 00
214800 2446N 08959W 9830 00172 0024 +240 +235 014032 033 020 002 00
214830 2447N 09001W 9829 00172 0023 +240 +234 016031 034 020 003 00
214900 2447N 09003W 9829 00170 0022 +241 +233 016031 032 016 004 03
214930 2446N 09004W 9828 00169 0020 +241 +231 013032 032 /// /// 03
215000 2445N 09004W 9830 00167 0019 +244 +230 009029 032 020 002 03
215030 2443N 09004W 9832 00163 0017 +245 +230 005029 030 022 003 00
215100 2442N 09002W 9828 00167 0016 +245 +229 002028 029 021 004 00
215130 2440N 09001W 9830 00163 0015 +244 +230 001030 031 025 002 00
215200 2439N 09000W 9832 00161 0014 +243 +233 000028 030 025 002 00
215230 2437N 08959W 9830 00161 0012 +244 +234 000028 029 022 003 00
215300 2436N 08958W 9831 00160 0011 +245 +235 000028 029 021 002 03
215330 2436N 08958W 9831 00160 0013 +245 +235 000031 032 024 002 03
$$
;

[BobHarlem]

A few of the local mets here are lamenting about the naming of the "Potential Tropical Cyclone" advisories, that seems to be confusing folks not familiar with it. PTC ? Post-Tropical Cyclone, Potential Tropical Cyclone? This thing needs a brand new term like Tropical Prewarning Advisory or something entirely new.

[cycloneye]

[RL3AO]

A few of the local mets here are lamenting about the naming of the "Potential Tropical Cyclone" advisories, that seems to be confusing folks not familiar with it. PTC ? Post-Tropical Cyclone, Potential Tropical Cyclone? This thing needs a brand new term like Tropical Prewarning Advisory or something entirely new.

I'm sure they're the same people who would complain in the past about the NHC waiting to start advisories and getting the warnings out late. If you're a TV met in a hurricane prone region, it's part of your job to explain the products NHC puts out.

[mcheer23]

18z GFS doesn't move the system very fast out of texas....Kinda just sits there...has about 6+ inches of rain NE of Houston.

[tolakram]

Looking at 50 frames and speeding it up I think the LLC is doing a good job of consolidating.

[tolakram]

18Z GFS animation

[jasons2k]

GFS is going further west, again. Surprise, surprise.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 192204
AF305 01AAA INVEST HDOB 23 20170619
215400 2433N 08956W 9830 00164 0016 +244 +236 357031 032 025 002 00
215430 2431N 08955W 9831 00164 0017 +244 +237 358031 032 025 002 00
215500 2430N 08954W 9832 00163 0017 +245 +237 356032 033 028 002 00
215530 2428N 08953W 9831 00163 0016 +245 +239 353032 033 026 002 03
215600 2427N 08952W 9828 00167 0016 +245 +239 355033 035 026 002 00
215630 2425N 08951W 9833 00162 0016 +245 +239 355032 033 025 003 00
215700 2423N 08950W 9831 00164 0016 +245 +238 355034 034 028 001 00
215730 2422N 08949W 9832 00162 0015 +245 +239 355032 035 025 003 03
215800 2420N 08948W 9831 00162 0014 +246 +239 354032 033 028 001 03
215830 2419N 08947W 9830 00162 0012 +246 +239 356032 034 027 004 03
215900 2418N 08946W 9829 00162 0011 +246 +237 355031 032 021 004 00
215930 2417N 08944W 9832 00158 0010 +249 +235 359032 032 021 003 03
220000 2417N 08942W 9830 00160 0010 +245 +236 357032 033 023 004 03
220030 2417N 08941W 9828 00158 0007 +245 +239 356032 033 024 003 00
220100 2417N 08939W 9830 00156 0006 +245 +236 000033 034 025 002 00
220130 2417N 08937W 9827 00157 0005 +245 +236 358033 034 024 002 00
220200 2417N 08937W 9827 00157 0004 +244 +236 359035 037 030 002 03
220230 2417N 08934W 9830 00152 0001 +243 +237 357035 036 027 003 00
220300 2417N 08932W 9830 00151 0000 +243 +237 355036 037 027 003 03
220330 2417N 08930W 9829 00150 9999 +244 +238 354036 037 031 002 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

12Z Euro animation

[cycloneye]

[sphelps8681]

GFS is going further west, again. Surprise, surprise.

Do you have a pic you can share?

[psyclone]

Claudette (2003) was brought up earlier. This system reminds of a much less sexy (and less memorable) system from 2003...Tropical storm Grace. It'll be interesting to see if it can get it act together. NHC track and watch/warning areas look good as usual. Best of luck to our Cajun friends in their quest to stay dry. Hopefully the flooding is kept to a minimum.

[Blinhart]

This could be a multi-billion dollar damaging system, a lot of places here in South Louisiana are still recovering from multiple floods in the past year. Not just August 2016, we had floods around here in May last year, May this year, and some minor flooding just a couple weeks ago. So a lot of places that weren't flood prone will have a chance of being flooded this time.

[tolakram]

GFS 24 hour precip total animation. Remember this is just one model and the track might not be accurate.

[tolakram]

GFS total precip after 120 hours

[mahmoo]

Does anyone know if this storm is predicted to move fairly quickly once on land or if it's expected to stall? I'm in Lafayette so we could end up on the east side of it ... that's why I'm wondering if it's gonna be a gully-washer or pass quick enough we won't have severe flooding. We sure don't need a ton of rain so fingers crossed it's gonna blow through fast.

[tolakram]

GFS is going further west, again. Surprise, surprise.

Do you have a pic you can share?

Animation posted in the THREE model thread.

[tolakram]

Does anyone know if this storm is predicted to move fairly quickly once on land or if it's expected to stall? I'm in Lafayette so we could end up on the east side of it ... that's why I'm wondering if it's gonna be a gully-washer or pass quick enough we won't have severe flooding. We sure don't need a ton of rain so fingers crossed it's gonna blow through fast.

I posted precip animations and total precip in the THREE model thread. Doesn't look like it stalls too long but still drops a lot of rain in places.