ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[davidiowx]

I wonder where Wxman 57 is.......

Merely speculating, but probably explaining to clients why his track is different than the NHC's.

I almost choked on my drink reading that.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Is that ULL to the west filling in some now? It sure looks like it to my untrained eyes.

Maybe ... but what I noticed is that it doesn't appear to be moving anywhere at all ... certainly not backing to the west like *some* models showed.

What will that do to the system?

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 192324
AF305 01AAA INVEST HDOB 31 20170619
231400 2357N 08920W 9832 00153 0005 +245 +243 352025 027 018 002 00
231430 2357N 08922W 9832 00152 0006 +242 //// 339030 030 021 006 01
231500 2357N 08924W 9829 00157 0006 +241 //// 339030 031 022 002 01
231530 2357N 08925W 9831 00155 0007 +242 +240 339029 030 020 003 01
231600 2356N 08927W 9826 00160 0007 +241 //// 339029 029 022 002 01
231630 2356N 08928W 9830 00157 //// +240 //// 338029 030 022 001 05
231700 2356N 08930W 9828 00161 //// +240 //// 336030 031 024 002 01
231730 2356N 08930W 9828 00161 //// +240 //// 337031 031 023 002 01
231800 2356N 08933W 9833 00157 //// +240 //// 335031 032 023 001 01
231830 2356N 08935W 9834 00158 0012 +240 +239 334032 033 023 001 01
231900 2355N 08936W 9830 00163 0014 +240 +240 335032 033 023 000 01
231930 2355N 08936W 9830 00163 0014 +240 +238 336034 035 024 002 00
232000 2355N 08939W 9831 00163 0015 +240 +238 340037 038 027 001 03
232030 2355N 08941W 9825 00167 0015 +244 +237 342036 038 024 002 00
232100 2355N 08943W 9831 00163 0016 +245 +237 345037 038 026 001 03
232130 2354N 08944W 9832 00163 0018 +246 +236 346036 039 027 001 03
232200 2354N 08946W 9831 00164 0018 +246 +236 346035 038 025 000 00
232230 2354N 08947W 9831 00166 0018 +246 +236 348036 037 022 003 00
232300 2354N 08949W 9828 00169 0019 +245 +239 348034 035 024 003 03
232330 2353N 08951W 9828 00169 0019 +245 +237 351035 036 022 003 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

[Tireman4]

I wonder where Wxman 57 is.......

Merely speculating, but probably explaining to clients why his track is different than the NHC's.

I almost choked on my drink reading that.

Telling them..." I am the Weather Authority. Not them. Remember the Summer of 2011. That was me. Thank you"

[RL3AO]

What will that do to the system?

Might be one of the main reasons the NHC goes towards LA instead of more west which the Euro and it's ensembles almost universally have it going.

[Portastorm]

What will that do to the system?

Might be one of the main reasons the NHC goes towards LA instead of more west which the Euro and it's ensembles almost universally have it going.

That would be my guess as well but I am far from an expert on these things.

[BRweather]

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

Use NASA website with GOES16 color bar on water vapor and you can see that the ULL is definitely backing off to the west.

[tarheelprogrammer]

What will that do to the system?

Might be one of the main reasons the NHC goes towards LA instead of more west which the Euro and it's ensembles almost universally have it going.

Intensity wise nothing important correct? Slop storm regardless.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 192334
AF305 01AAA INVEST HDOB 32 20170619
232400 2353N 08952W 9826 00172 0021 +245 +236 353036 037 021 002 00
232430 2353N 08952W 9826 00172 0021 +245 +236 352034 035 023 001 00
232500 2353N 08956W 9830 00170 0022 +248 +238 352034 035 022 001 00
232530 2352N 08957W 9832 00168 0022 +249 +236 356035 037 026 002 00
232600 2352N 08959W 9832 00169 0023 +250 +236 356034 035 021 003 00
232630 2352N 09001W 9826 00174 0024 +250 +236 357033 034 022 002 00
232700 2352N 09002W 9831 00170 0024 +250 +237 357033 034 021 002 03
232730 2351N 09004W 9832 00170 0025 +250 +234 357033 035 019 002 03
232800 2351N 09006W 9829 00174 0026 +250 +233 357032 033 020 002 00
232830 2351N 09007W 9832 00172 0027 +250 +232 356031 032 022 001 03
232900 2351N 09009W 9832 00172 0028 +250 +231 000032 033 023 001 00
232930 2351N 09011W 9832 00175 0029 +250 +232 359031 032 020 002 03
233000 2350N 09013W 9830 00177 0029 +250 +236 356029 032 018 002 00
233030 2350N 09014W 9831 00178 0031 +250 +236 358030 031 020 001 00
233100 2350N 09016W 9832 00177 0032 +250 +239 356029 030 018 002 03
233130 2350N 09018W 9830 00179 0032 +250 +236 354030 030 019 001 00
233200 2350N 09019W 9829 00180 0032 +251 +233 355030 031 017 003 00
233230 2349N 09021W 9827 00184 0033 +250 +235 355030 031 019 002 00
233300 2349N 09023W 9826 00184 0033 +250 +237 356031 032 022 002 00
233330 2349N 09024W 9828 00183 0034 +250 +236 357032 033 022 002 03
$$

[RL3AO]

What will that do to the system?

Might be one of the main reasons the NHC goes towards LA instead of more west which the Euro and it's ensembles almost universally have it going.

Intensity wise nothing important correct? Slop storm regardless.

I don't really see much changing that.

[cycloneye]

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, the GFS diagnosed shear near the TC center at around 14 m/s, which is consistent with the 18Z SHIPS analysis. However, it may be over-estimating the shear to the south of the TC, as you mentioned.

Yeah that is what I was mentioning that the relative shear appears to quite a bit less than forecast.

also latest recon pass the center has dropped below the 24 N line which puts it smack dab under the light shear analyzed by cimss.. the cyclonic loop is not quite complete could give it a little extra time to get going.

[RL3AO]

GOES-16 - From sunrise to sunset today.

Note: 25MB GIF
http://i.imgur.com/0nlJpxC.gifv

[jasons2k]

It's gonna miss the first forecast point to the west...

[cycloneye]

MIssion over as plane acends

URNT15 KNHC 192344
AF305 01AAA INVEST HDOB 33 20170619
233400 2349N 09026W 9827 00184 0034 +251 +238 358030 033 019 003 00
233430 2349N 09028W 9829 00183 0034 +247 +241 355030 032 020 004 00
233500 2349N 09029W 9747 00255 0031 +242 +235 356032 033 023 003 03
233530 2350N 09030W 9427 00546 0031 +222 +220 002029 032 /// /// 03
233600 2351N 09028W 9003 00945 0029 +202 +189 012028 030 /// /// 03
233630 2352N 09027W 8555 01383 0027 +181 +169 008030 032 /// /// 03
233700 2353N 09026W 8196 01751 0020 +168 +142 002025 027 /// /// 03
233730 2354N 09025W 7826 02145 0013 +155 +114 006023 024 /// /// 03
233800 2356N 09024W 7514 02489 0010 +138 +092 001020 023 /// /// 03
233830 2357N 09023W 7228 02818 0012 +121 +073 004020 020 018 002 03
233900 2358N 09021W 7036 03049 0011 +112 +045 005018 020 020 001 00
233930 2359N 09020W 6966 03134 0017 +104 +053 012018 019 018 002 00
234000 2401N 09018W 6950 03156 0019 +104 +055 017018 018 020 002 03
234030 2402N 09017W 6974 03131 0022 +100 +081 021016 017 019 002 03
234100 2404N 09015W 6975 03126 0017 +105 +078 026016 017 021 001 00
234130 2406N 09014W 6951 03154 0016 +104 +076 024017 017 022 001 00
234200 2408N 09012W 6977 03125 0017 +104 +076 023020 020 021 002 00
234230 2409N 09010W 6970 03131 0015 +105 +076 018019 019 023 001 00
234300 2411N 09008W 6968 03136 0016 +104 +077 016020 020 020 002 00
234330 2413N 09007W 6959 03145 0016 +101 +080 014019 020 021 002 03
$$

[tarheelprogrammer]

Might be one of the main reasons the NHC goes towards LA instead of more west which the Euro and it's ensembles almost universally have it going.

Intensity wise nothing important correct? Slop storm regardless.

I don't really see much changing that.

Thanks I figured the ULL was the main issue.

[stormlover2013]

What do u mean Jason ?

[cycloneye]

Next mission will depart around 5:30 AM EDT.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 20/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 20/0930Z
D. 24.5N 90.0W
E. 20/1100Z TO 20/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[Aric Dunn]

It's gonna miss the first forecast point to the west...

yeah with this cyclonic loop/ Fujiwara effect going on some more south motion followed and east then back north is likely for the next few hours which will be quite a bit behind the NHC track. IF the shear does continue to be on the lighter side that may help it organize and deepen as well