ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[davidiowx]

It's gonna miss the first forecast point to the west...

How far are we talking? A few miles or 50 miles?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Consensus of computer models suggest this system will track northwest and may move inland over coastal texas sometime thursday as a tropical storm.

[HeeBGBz]

Season's afoot and hello to all. Should we on the Mississippi coast expect any tropical warnings? I work in east Biloxi and that entire side of old town goes underwater in a hard rain.

[Aric Dunn]

Also would not be surprised if we see some marked increase in convection once these two vorts finish the merging process. It will allow a steady lowering of pressure and more uniform convergence.

[caneman]

Consensus of computer models suggest this system will track northwest and may move inland over coastal texas sometime thursday as a tropical storm.

The majority show Louisiana. If so, there may not be much rain in Texas

[stormlover2013]

Aric what is Jason talking about ?

[Aric Dunn]

Aric what is Jason talking about ?

read up I described what its happening. it has been rotating southward all day. good hundred miles or so from first recon fix.

[BiloxiBeachGuy]

The City of Biloxi (and the residents there) been in a huge water drainage project in the eastern part of town. This is going to set things back a bit.

I live in West Biloxi but I work in a East Biloxi. The roads have been a mess for a long time. These streets are going to flood in no time! I may not be able to deliver in some of these areas. Parts of Keesler Air Force Base also flood during heavy rains as does Highway 90 (Beach Boulevard). I feel for the people who have had to live through the road work in East Biloxi.

[GCANE]

Mid GOM Buoy
42001
25.897 N 89.668 W

[stormlover2013]

Ok, so ur saying NHC will shift track more towards the west ?

[Aric Dunn]

Ok, so ur saying NHC will shift track more towards the west ?

just revise the timing..

[jasons2k]

Aric what is Jason talking about ?

read up I described what its happening. it has been rotating southward all day. good hundred miles or so from first recon fix.

Yes, sorry I didn't reply earlier. If you look at a really long satellite loop and speed it up, you can see the center is consolidating. And it's south and west of the NHC plot line....

So you got two factors that will send this to Texas. 1) A bad initialization that needs to be corrected, and 2) the Euro winning the model war with a west tug at the end.

[GCANE]

500mb Vort
03L and the ULL in the NW GOM almost look like Siamese twins.
Very close, should see a Fujiwhara rotation.
03L will likely take a NW turn toward Texas

[GCANE]

Debris from afternoon storms over Mexico filling in some of the dry slot.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-animated.gif

[sphelps8681]

Aric what is Jason talking about ?

read up I described what its happening. it has been rotating southward all day. good hundred miles or so from first recon fix.

Yes, sorry I didn't reply earlier. If you look at a really long satellite loop and speed it up, you can see the center is consolidating. And it's south and west of the NHC plot line....

So you got two factors that will send this to Texas. 1) A bad initialization that needs to be corrected, and 2) the Euro winning the model war with a west tug at the end.

Some of us don't know what you mean when you say it has been rotating southward all day. Some explanation would be greatly appreciated if ya'll could tell what that means for potential change in the forecast if any. For anything that is said that means a change of any sort. With only a couple of days for anyone to prepare this would be great.

[jlauderdal]

we are off to a great start with the modeling

[davidiowx]

read up I described what its happening. it has been rotating southward all day. good hundred miles or so from first recon fix.

Yes, sorry I didn't reply earlier. If you look at a really long satellite loop and speed it up, you can see the center is consolidating. And it's south and west of the NHC plot line....

So you got two factors that will send this to Texas. 1) A bad initialization that needs to be corrected, and 2) the Euro winning the model war with a west tug at the end.

Some of us don't know what you mean when you say it has been rotating southward all day. Some explanation would be greatly appreciated if ya'll could tell what that means for potential change in the forecast if any. For anything that is said that means a change of any sort. With only a couple of days for anyone to prepare this would be great.

Basically the track would shift a little bit more towards the west. Having said that, that doesn't mean a whole lot in regards to where the flooding rains and gusty winds will end up. As of now, (things can and will likely change) this storm is very lopsided with all of the convection and heavy rain off to the east and north east of the center.

Follow the NHC guidance, and check often, as there are a lot of uncertainties with this system.

[TexasF6]

The PTC looks to my eyes, to move initially WSW, then WNW at the end of the loop. Storms popping finally over the vorticies. Gonna be an interesting season if it starts like this!








The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[TheStormExpert]

we are off to a great start with the modeling

Yep! Hard to believe we're in 2017.

[sphelps8681]

Yes, sorry I didn't reply earlier. If you look at a really long satellite loop and speed it up, you can see the center is consolidating. And it's south and west of the NHC plot line....

So you got two factors that will send this to Texas. 1) A bad initialization that needs to be corrected, and 2) the Euro winning the model war with a west tug at the end.

Some of us don't know what you mean when you say it has been rotating southward all day. Some explanation would be greatly appreciated if ya'll could tell what that means for potential change in the forecast if any. For anything that is said that means a change of any sort. With only a couple of days for anyone to prepare this would be great.

Basically the track would shift a little bit more towards the west. Having said that, that doesn't mean a whole lot in regards to where the flooding rains and gusty winds will end up. As of now, (things can and will likely change) this storm is very lopsided with all of the convection and heavy rain off to the east and north east of the center.

Follow the NHC guidance, and check often, as there are a lot of uncertainties with this system.

Thank you for your response but I get more info on here before it is disclosed to the public. That is why I like this site.