ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[PTrackerLA]

Is the 3km NAM any better or worse than the 12km for tropics? Out to 35hrs and it's stronger than the 18z run (@ 982mb) but closer to LA. This model had sub 970mb intensity at hour 51 on the 18z. I figure it should be taken with grain of salt as it's such an outlier with regards to intensity.

[Steve]

Landfall about 51 hours at 989mb between Galveston Bay and the TX/LA border. (32km) That's basically Chambers and Jefferson Counties, Texas - Winnie, Port Arthur, Beaumont. Nederland areas of Texas then further east in cities like Orange, TX and Holly Beach/Cameron/Hackberry in Louisiana if anyone still lives down that way after Rita and Ike.

[Steve]

Is the 3km NAM any better or worse than the 12km for tropics? Out to 35hrs and it's stronger than the 18z run (@ 982mb) but closer to LA. This model had sub 970mb intensity at hour 51 on the 18z. I figure it should be taken with grain of salt as it's such an outlier with regards to intensity.

Someone (relato?) earlier said that it was tweaked and that was a new available resolution. I haven't tested it yet because it's the NAM. But north of 25 and across the continent it's usually not terrible once it catches on to things.

[South Texas Storms]

Think the chances are increasing that this will make landfall close to Houston as a moderate to strong Tropical Storm. Hopefully confidence increases after all of the 0z guidance is in.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

That's one hell of of a vent available to move mass air.

[HurricaneBrain]

00z NAM with a strong TS making landfall near Galveston Wednesday night.

[cycloneye]

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 89.5W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Intracoastal City to High Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Earlier this afternoon, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft investigating the central Gulf of Mexico disturbance found
that the multiple swirls that this system possessed had consolidated
into a single low-level circulation center with a pressure of about
1000 mb. However, since the circulation was and still is elongated
north-to-south, the large low pressure system is being maintained as
a potential tropical cyclone for this advisory cycle.

The NWS now has the option to issue advisories, watches, and
warnings for disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but
which pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane
conditions to land areas within 48 hours. Under previous policy
this was not possible. These systems are known as Potential
Tropical Cyclones in advisory products and are numbered from the
same list as depressions. Because of the threat to the central
Gulf coast, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical
Cyclone Three and the appropriate watches/warnings have been issued.
Users should be aware that forecast uncertainty for disturbances is
generally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond
48-72 hours.

After stalling this afternoon due to re-organization of the system's
center, the low now appears to be moving 330/07 kt based on recent
conventional and microwave satellite fixes. The new forecast track
has been shifted to the west of the previous advisory track through
48 hours, mainly due to the more westward initial position.
Otherwise, no other significant changes were made to the previous
forecast track. The low is expected to move generally northwestward
through 48 hours around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer
ridge located over the western Atlantic and Florida. After that, the
system is forecast to turn northward around the ridge axis, moving
into the south-central United States. The new NHC track forecast is
a little to the right of the consensus model TVCA. Given the still
disorganized nature of the circulation, and the fact that the wind
and rain hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are
encouraged to not focus on the details of the track forecast.

The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on reconnaissance wind
data and observations from nearby ships 3ETA7 and 3FZO8. Only slight
strengthening is expected for the next 36 hours or so due to
moderate to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear of 25-30 kt.
By 48 hours, the shear is forecast to decrease to 20 kt or less,
but the system will already be close to land at that time and
probably not be able to take advantage of the lower shear
conditions. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and the intensity consensus model IVCN.

The primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy
rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 24.4N 89.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 20/1200Z 25.4N 90.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 21/0000Z 26.4N 91.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 27.1N 92.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 28.3N 92.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 31.8N 93.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/0000Z 35.2N 90.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[TheStormExpert]

Think the chances are increasing that this will make landfall close to Houston as a moderate to strong Tropical Storm. Hopefully confidence increases after all of the 0z guidance is in.

I'm starting to wonder if this could make a run at being a hurricane. It's been quite awhile since our last Atlantic hurricane south of 30N in June, especially one that hits the U.S. as one.

[HurricaneBrain]

Track shifted west, as expected.

[South Texas Storms]

Think the chances are increasing that this will make landfall close to Houston as a moderate to strong Tropical Storm. Hopefully confidence increases after all of the 0z guidance is in.

I'm starting to wonder if this could make a run at being a hurricane. It's been quite awhile since our last Atlantic hurricane south of 30N in June, especially one that hits the U.S. as one.

Yeah I would give it a low chance at this time. A few models do indicate it's possible.

[PTrackerLA]

FWIW 00z 3km NAM landfall 974mb, a touch east of the 18z.

[La Breeze]

FWIW 00z 3km NAM landfall 974mb, a touch east of the 18z.

PTrackerLA, I'm not liking this scenario here in Vermilion Parish - how bad do you think it's going to get for us?

[AdamFirst]

So I'm slightly confused about this - since this entity is titled "Potential Tropical Cyclone Three", it's not considered a Tropical Depression since it doesn't actually have a closed low level circulation?

[Wx_Warrior]

10pm advisory

[NDG]

Bouy just north of the COC .

Code: Select all

Wind Direction (WDIR):   ENE ( 70 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed   Wind Speed (WSPD):   31.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust   Wind Gust (GST):   40.8 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure   Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):   29.68 in
5-day plot - Air Temperature   Air Temperature (ATMP):   77.5 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature   Water Temperature (WTMP):   82.2 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point   Dew Point (DEWP):   77.5 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index   Heat Index (HEAT):   79.2 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters   Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M):   35.0 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters   Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M):   38.9 kts

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

[Steve]

So I'm slightly confused about this - since this entity is titled "Potential Tropical Cyclone Three", it's not considered a Tropical Depression since it doesn't actually have a closed low level circulation?

It has a closed circulation but it's still elongated N-S as they said in their update. Look for them to upgrade tomorrow at some point. It seems like this PTC classification is a formality to solve a problem they were having with the old system whereby specific NWS office warnings weren't allowed without declaration. For all intents and purposes, its' a TS (or a TD at worst). Stewart just wasn't ready to classify it yet probably because he wants to see it consolidate a little more.
---------------------------
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png

00z Guidance is out and is basically TX/LA Border and SW LA. NHC Track should still nudge a bit to the west if the European continues to hold fast to a farther south landfall than the GFS and its related models. Still no call from me which I admit is really weak. But I don't have much of a handle on the end game beyond somewhere in SE TX or SW LA. I'm getting rain.

[HurricaneBrain]

4PM proj. path v. 11PM proj. path:

[weathaguyry]

More time over water in latest track

[Hammy]

Convection building to the north of the center tells me this will probably be Cindy by noon. Problem intensity-wise though is it seems like it's headed straight into that wall of shear.

[HurricaneBrain]

About 7 hours more.

More time over water in latest track