ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AJC3]

Any reason in particular they don't show the long-range radars on this map?

I don't know, but my guess would be that it would choke (oversaturate) the mosaicing algorithm, particularly over inland areas where you would have an ever greater (ridiculous?) amount of overlap than you already have in many areas.

[Aric Dunn]

we definitely still have a west to wsw motion .. though the better question is do we lose the circ that is moving west in favor of another vort forming with the convection.. multiple models a few days ago show that idea.. I see some mid level features east in the convection that have me interested.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Explains its self (ens)

[Steve]

That looks pretty unlikely considering it would have to go due north to achieve that. The legitimate models have coalesced toward a hit 200-250 miles west of that. I'll never say never, but that's unlikely in my opinion.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

That looks pretty unlikely considering it would have to go due north to achieve that. The legitimate models have coalesced toward a hit 200-250 miles west of that. I'll never say never, but that's unlikely in my opinion.

We will see how it unfold's. Its basically as you say a north track from a tweaked ens.

[southerngale]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 200552
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
100 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE WOBBLES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 89.9W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Intracoastal City to High Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
24.5 North, longitude 89.9 West. The system is moving generally
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest should occur by Tuesday morning, and that motion is
expected to continue into Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
disturbance is expected to be near the Louisiana coast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before the system
reaches the coast.

Upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive for some
additional development of this system during the next day or two,
and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form during that
time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
10 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Wednesday
evening.

STORM SURGE: Inundations of 1 to 3 feet are possible along the
coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Hammy]

we definitely still have a west to wsw motion .. though the better question is do we lose the circ that is moving west in favor of another vort forming with the convection.. multiple models a few days ago show that idea.. I see some mid level features east in the convection that have me interested.

NAM is the highest resolution model I've seen and it shows just that, multiple vortices rotating around each other for about the next 36 hours or so.

[HurricaneRyan]

The winds are at 40 mph but it isn't a tropical storm? Can someone explain this to me?

[Hammy]

The winds are at 40 mph but it isn't a tropical storm? Can someone explain this to me?

Basically the center is too elongated at the moment, and is essentially a large wind shift with the weather (and occasional smaller vortex) rotating around it.

[wxman22]

European shifted west and shows the center of the storm making landfall around Galveston and brings very heavy rainfall across Southeast Texas as the storm starts to slow down as it moves inland. It shows widespread rainfall amounts of 3-7 inches.

[stormreader]

The winds are at 40 mph but it isn't a tropical storm? Can someone explain this to me?

I know. New system not as clear-cut. More difficult for the average public to understand. You have a pressure of 1000 mb, which is well within storm rating and you have winds of 40 mph which are storm force winds. You have this new designation of "potential tropical cyclone paired with an invest designation 93 l for the system. Can't wait till later in the year when we have a combination of invest, potential tropical cyclone, depressions (or is depression now obselete), sub-tropical storms, and actual named systems. Confusing and not user-friendly for general public.

[La Breeze]

If it can completely get wrapped up in the next 6 to 10 hours, I wouldn't be surprised for this to make Cat. 1, and if it just stalls a little with all the heat energy of the GoM it could get up to Cat 2 by landfall.

Let's hope not.

[arlwx]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
400 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 90.1W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Cameron, Louisiana
to Intracoastal City.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Cameron to High Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
24.8 North, longitude 90.1 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion should
continue through Wednesday, with a turn toward the north expected
Wednesday night or Thursday. On the forecast track, the disturbance
is expected to be near the Louisiana coast late Wednesday or
Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible before the system reaches the
coast.

Upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive for some
additional development of this system during the next day or two,
and a subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely to form during
that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
NOAA buoy 42001 just reported a pressure of 1001.7 mb (29.58
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
10 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday
morning. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across southwest
Louisiana into southeast Texas through Thursday morning.

STORM SURGE: Inundations of 1 to 3 feet are possible along the
coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon and tonight
from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

[arlwx]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
400 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Nighttime infrared satellite imagery suggests that the circulation
associated with the low pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico is
gradually becoming better defined. However, the system is
struggling to maintain organized convection near the center, and
the radius of maximum winds remains large. Based on this, the
system is still maintained as a potential tropical cyclone.

The low is moving erratically northwestward around the southwestern
portion of a deep-layer ridge located over the western Atlantic and
Florida. The large-scale models suggest this ridge will strengthen
some during the next 36 hours or so and cause the low to turn a
little more westward. This would be followed by a northward turn
around the western end of the ridge and eventual recurvature into
the westerlies. Overall, there has been a left shift of the track
guidance models since the previous advisory. The new forecast
track is also shifted left, but it is to the right of the model
consensus, especially at 36-48 h. Given the nature of the
circulation, though, and the fact that the wind and rain hazards
extend well north and east of the center, users are encouraged to
not focus on the details of the track forecast.

The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on partial scatterometer
overpasses and continuity from the previous advisory. Significant
strengthening is unlikely due to strong vertical shear caused by an
upper-level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and
entrainment of dry air into the system. However, the large-scale
models suggest slight strengthening before landfall, and thus the
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory. One
change from the previous advisory is that it now appears more
likely that the system would become a subtropical cyclone than a
tropical cyclone due to the current structure of the low and
interaction with the aforementioned trough. That being said,
development into a tropical cyclone remains possible.

The primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy
rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 24.8N 90.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 20/1800Z 25.7N 91.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 21/0600Z 26.6N 92.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 27.5N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 28.9N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 32.5N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/0600Z 36.5N 88.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[RL3AO]

The winds are at 40 mph but it isn't a tropical storm? Can someone explain this to me?

I know. New system not as clear-cut. More difficult for the average public to understand. You have a pressure of 1000 mb, which is well within storm rating and you have winds of 40 mph which are storm force winds. You have this new designation of "potential tropical cyclone paired with an invest designation 93 l for the system. Can't wait till later in the year when we have a combination of invest, potential tropical cyclone, depressions (or is depression now obselete), sub-tropical storms, and actual named systems. Confusing and not user-friendly for general public.

In the past there would not be advisories right now. The center is not well defined and therefore it is not a tropical cyclone. The new system allows warnings to be issued in a timely manner. We could just go back to the teletype only days. It was obviously much simpler and there would be less confusion, right?

[snoop9928]

Rain still heavily on east quad? Wondering the rainfall for Houston if this thing direct hits Galveston

[GCANE]

COAMPS
06/20 00Z run

48 hrs out.
Landfall Lou/Tex Border.
Shear dropping. Possible intensification just before landfall.

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/ ... 2017062000

[GCANE]

GOES-16
6.19 um, Channel 8
Water Vapor

Dry slot has filled in quite a bit.
Obviously still sheared.

[GCANE]

Looks like the ULL over NW GOM is slowly dissipating.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=


03L is winning the battle at 500mb.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[tolakram]

WV loop
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-85&info=wv&zoom=4&width=1400&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=wv2.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black