ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneBrain]

I'm still seeing a NW motion.

[NDG]

Definitely the Euro has not been the best in its short to med range forecast with this system.

[Stormcenter]

Does look to be moving more northward. IMO

[GCANE]

Looks like more hot-towers are now firing off inside the cirrus canopy left from the first one.

[Stormcenter]

This should be Cindy soon. IMO

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Hammy may well have been correct with her early call on a subtropical storm.
It dont look like this storm has much wind speed around the centre. Atm it looks
all outta radius gales.

[slamdaddy]

Not much of rain as of yet here in Jackson County, MS. Looks like Escambia County, FL getting a lot at the moment based on radar.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Was recon canceled?

[cycloneye]

Who wants to post the data of the mission this morning?

[GCANE]

That hot-spot (multiple towers successively firing off) is definitely closing in on the CoC.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 200800.jpg

[GCANE]

Was recon canceled?

I think its on the runway

[sphelps8681]

Was recon canceled?

No. They are in the air now from what I see on the recon page.

[Tireman4]

From HGX AFD>...


000
FXUS64 KHGX 201031
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
531 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
As we head into the Summer Solstice late tonight...all eyes are
on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (PTC3). This broad low over
the central Gulf is slowly advancing north along the far eastern
periphery of a Four Corners-centered upper ridge. Today`s forecast
movement of the low has it traveling west of north...or towards
the Texas-Louisiana line (Sabine River Valley). This morning`s NHC
advisory update has this (sub)tropical system strengthening to
Tropical Storm Cindy latter today with a landfall somewhere
between Galveston Bay and the central Louisiana coastline Thursday
morning. Sustained Tropical Storm winds will graze our eastern-
most Gulf waters. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for our
eastern waters from tomorrow morning through Thursday morning.

Another partially cloudy...hot and fairly humid day today as
afternoon temperatures eclipse the 90 F mark by 11 AM...topping
out in the interior middle 90s to coastal lower 90s by 4 PM.
Although difficult to discern within the surface analysis...there
is a diffuse surface boundary draped somewhere over the southern
half of the CWA...with PTC3/TS Cindy pulling this boundary further
south. Regional northeasterlies will begin to strengthen through
the day...more pronounced over the open waters to Small Craft
Advisories by late this afternoon for all Gulf waters (except for
the nearshore western waters and Matagorda Bay). Chances for Gulf
showers and thunderstorms will begin increasing over the next 24
to 36 hours to likely by tomorrow morning as PTC3/TS Cindy`s
northwestern convective bands begin to creep into our marine
zones. Wednesday into Thursday is when this (sub)tropical system
moves onshore somewhere over the upper Texas to southwestern
Louisiana coastline. The main threats appear to be mainly focused
on the marine with elevated water levels and tropical storm level
winds. The main eastern-southeastern county threat will be
locally heavy rainfall leading to flooding as bands of storms
rotate inland along the northwestern sector of PTC3/TS Cindy.
Skies will become mainly overcast tomorrow...with moderate
northeast winds...morning lower 80s with afternoon middle 90s over
the NW`ern CWA to around 90 F over the southeastern third of the
CWA (counties surrounding Galveston Bay) per the overcast and
periodic precipitation. More frequent rounds of precipitation
Wednesday evening through Thursday morning as PTC3/TS Cindy makes
landfall over the upper Texas/southwestern Louisiana coastline.
Needless to say...but an overcast and more wet end to the work
week.

The remnants of PTC3/Cindy will move north into eastern-northeastern
Texas through Thursday afternoon and be entering the ArkLaTex region
that evening. Eastern CWA POPS will remain at least high chance
through Thursday night...tapering off to low to moderate chances
for showers and storms early Friday. Storm total QPF for the eastern
half of the forecast area (through early Saturday) will average
between 2 to 4 inches...with locally 6 to 8 inches not completely
out of the question if the storm jogs more west than north.

Weekend weather has weak ridging attempting to make a comeback
with winds returning to onshore...mostly cloudy and humid with
average minTs in the upper 70s / average maxTs in the lower 90s.
Precipitation chances remain high...especially close to the
coast...as this is where the height weakness channel will lie
with a series of shortwave disturbances moving parallel to the
Gulf coast. Extremely high pwat air mass above 2 inches with weak
cyclonic-turning mid levels and unstable profiles all point to an
unsettled first weekend of the summer season.

A weak boundary moving into the area early next week will keep an
unsettled picture in place through the end of the period. Slightly
cooler middle levels...overcast with occasional rain/thunderstorm
occurrences will regulate early work week warmth to closer to 90
F than 95 F / overnight middle 70s. Precipitation chances remain
in the moderate chance category through mid week...with higher
probabilities focused across the southern third of the area where
the higher moisture/theta e axis is modeled to reside. 31

&&

.MARINE...
Pres gradient will tighten today and tonight and winds and seas will
increase to Small Craft Advsy criteria. Obviously, the fcst for the
next couple days is highly dependent on the evolution/track of the
disturbance in the Gulf. NHC adjusted their track westward, which
would bring some TS force gusts in the extreme se parts of the 20-
60nm offshore waters south of GLS as early as ~4am tonight. Went
ahead and hoisted a TS Watch there which, dependent on later
data/trends, may or may not need to be expanded north with time.

Tides: Currently running ~0.7 ft above normal in the Galveston Bay
area. They too will be highly dependent on the track of the
disturbance and if we remain on the west side (offshore flow) or
east side (onshore flow). If on the west side, we`ll probably see
a slight bump (possibly to total observed slightly above 3 ft mllw
at the beaches at high tide Wed) followed by levels falling to
1-2 ft below normal as it gets blown out Wed night and Thurs.
However, if we somehow get on the east side, coastal flooding
would be a decent bet especially at times of high tide. Low
confidence at this point unfortunately, esp east of Freeport. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
Patch 4-6sm fog across northern parts of se Tx will burn off shortly
after sunrise. Otherwise, mostly VFR conditions expected today and
tonight. May see some iso shra/tstms near the coast 21-02Z, but
minimal impacts expected. Main aviation issue in the next 24-36
hours will be increasing nne winds, esp near the coast, as the
pressure gradient tightens. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 76 94 75 92 / 10 10 10 40 50
Houston (IAH) 94 77 92 76 87 / 10 10 40 70 50
Galveston (GLS) 91 81 86 80 87 / 20 20 70 80 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 4 AM CDT
Wednesday for the following zones: Waters from High Island
to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

Tropical Storm Watch for the following zones: Waters from High
Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT
Wednesday for the following zones: Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 9 AM this morning to 4
PM CDT this afternoon for the following zones: Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[RL3AO]

Hammy may well have been correct with her early call on a subtropical storm.
It dont look like this storm has much wind speed around the centre. Atm it looks
all outta radius gales.

Recon and model analysis show basically zero temperature gradient across the system. It's lopsided but I don't see any reasons to justify calling it subtropical.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Question. Why is this not named, but Colin in 2016 was? This looks better than that system ever did.

[NDG]

Hammy may well have been correct with her early call on a subtropical storm.
It dont look like this storm has much wind speed around the centre. Atm it looks
all outta radius gales.

Mark my words, this is not be named subtropical system, when it gets upgraded it will be a Tropical Storm. IMO.

[NDG]

[Florida1118]

Question. Why is this not named, but Colin in 2016 was? This looks better than that system ever did.

Because the NHC no longer has to forcibly make a decision as to whether a system is a tropical cyclone or not, debating public safety and warning versus scientific classification. They can now take their time with classification, as the public safety and warning issue is now covered by the potential tropical cyclone products.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Hammy may well have been correct with her early call on a subtropical storm.
It dont look like this storm has much wind speed around the centre. Atm it looks
all outta radius gales.

Recon and model analysis show basically zero temperature gradient across the system. It's lopsided but I don't see any reasons to justify calling it subtropical.

I have been looking at private marine ascat data, not noaa but usually quite accurate
all i was seeing is 10/15 kts within the elongated centre perimeter and 35kts well away
from centre. TBH RL3AO it looks a sheared mess on ir. likely a good thing really could
be a much worse scenario.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Question. Why is this not named, but Colin in 2016 was? This looks better than that system ever did.

Because the NHC no longer has to forcibly make a decision as to whether a system is a tropical cyclone or not, debating public safety and warning versus scientific classification. They can now take their time with classification, as the public safety and warning issue is now covered by the potential tropical cyclone products.

Anyone got an answer as to why this is not a TC?